Vaccine supply about to significantly reduce

[DareIask]

Looks like Europe may have got their way

The 5m delayed from India doesn’t seem like enough to effectively stop first doses for a month though.

I do wish they’d just be open about what’s causing the difficulty here, rather than try to handwave it away as ‘nothing to see here supply is always lumpy’. They were clearly not expecting a shortfall of this magnitude and not being open about it is just going to brew rumours and unhelpful speculation and journalists prodding around anyway. So why not just say? Possibly there’s still something under discussion with some company/government that they’re trying to resolve?

In a randomised controlled trials, which gives the most robust evidence, the Pfizer vaccine was given three weeks apart and the AstraZeneca 6 to 12 weeks apart. There are no randomised controlled trials demonstrating that a longer time period than 12 weeks is better. The time between Pfizer vaccines was lengthened to get more people vaccinated. It wasn't because it is known to make it more effective. And yet the emergent data suggests that there might be some benefits to health and efficacy in the delays, further research to come.

Who knows what the standard trial delay will be in future. 3 weeks seems less and less useful as all of this goes on!

@GoldenOmber

The 5m delayed from India doesn’t seem like enough to effectively stop first doses for a month though.

I do wish they’d just be open about what’s causing the difficulty here, rather than try to handwave it away as ‘nothing to see here supply is always lumpy’. They were clearly not expecting a shortfall of this magnitude and not being open about it is just going to brew rumours and unhelpful speculation and journalists prodding around anyway. So why not just say? Possibly there’s still something under discussion with some company/government that they’re trying to resolve?

See, I don't think they have hand waved, see my post above about the Sky News piece and the usual Laura Kuenssberg blatherings!

Second doses were always going to slow down the roll out of first doses

The 'pause' to check back on the vulnerable who hadn't had a jab was also always mooted

Those 2 issues coincided with the delays in Inida, themselves the usual testing issues

All of that in tip of any other usual 'lump'

It's not a 'magnitude' it's one of those logistic issues, remember the vaccine is basically a global just-in-time logstical exercise!

I think I would actually feel better if they had said a few weeks ago that the doses are needed for the most vulnerable in India and things will slow down here. And then limit the appointments here to the people genuinely clinically vulnerable and over 50. Instead all I've been hearing on my social media feeds is people around my age posting their vaccination cards and how lucky they've been to be called early because their area is ahead or there's been a lucky mistake, or they have no idea why they've been invited as they're totally healthy. And now it feels like a strange two tier system where those people will have their second doses before I even get a look in for my first... Maybe their jabs should have actually been given to the priority groups too.

Also for things like asthma, some people have only put in group 6 if they’ve been recently hospitalised but others have been able to get prioritised for the jab more easily. It’s not consistent.

Their approach to asthma sufferers has been wildly inconsistent based on the cross-section of people I know. Some in their 30s, not been hospitalised ever, had jab, and then people in a hugely high risk job like teaching, severe asthma and 49 not getting it.

Second doses were always going to slow down the roll out of first doses

Yes, always. But not to this degree. Hence the handwaving. It was never the plan to effectively pause first doses for a month.

@RedToothBrush
Hi. I've been informed by a lot of your posts in the past.
I don't think of Oxford and Az as the same. Just like PfizerBiontech. Az have let the EU down (IMO), and the chief exec received a 7 figure bonus last year (Soriot).
Ireland have this week's AZ supply awaiting results from some dr. group, at national level. This is independent of the EMA, who said to continue. A decision to resume is expected today, Thursday, and I expect the days lost to be caught up within the next 10 days.
My understanding is that vaccine hesitancy is expected to become more of an issue, in the last 10-20% of population, so communication of the safety of the process is paramount. Some non EU countries paused delivery. Belgium did not.
Continental delivery has not been as fast as Ireland with the same pro rata supply, but I believe different countries have different problems. Certainly Irish scientists are shouting over our airwaves that ALL vaccines are 100% effective against serious illness& death, to take whichever you are offered.

@GoldenOmber

Second doses were always going to slow down the roll out of first doses

Yes, always. But not to this degree. Hence the handwaving. It was never the plan to effectively pause first doses for a month.

Not for a month but the check back has been discussed before, across the EU, WHO etc.

As I said, the logistical coinicidence has made the issue seem bigger, exacerbated by UvdLs statement and the press clamouring to make something huge and scary out of it!

Truth is there probably is no underlying issue, it really is just a compounded logistical blip!

GoldenOmber

“Yes, always. But not to this degree. Hence the handwaving. It was never the plan to effectively pause first doses for a month.“

Given how much more efficient the roll out has been than was anticipated, it will be neither here nor there in the longer term.
All over 18s (and vulnerable 16+) will still be invited for their vaccine by 31st July.

People seem to have become complacent about this remarkable programme very quickly,

Oh, we’ll still be streets ahead of the EU with our roll-out even with this reported delay.

And I could say you’ll also be streets ahead of many EU countries in number of deaths, and number of people who have lost their jobs and financial security.

The UK are doing really well with the vaccination programme. But let’s not pretend they did well for the first 10 months of the pandemic. The introduced a proper quarantine system and testing in schools and business only last month. We’ve been doing it since July. However, this UK vs EU narrative doesn’t help anyone.

Like Avon (or someone else) said upthread, people in the EU are much calmer about their vaccines being delayed. The numbers are much lower, hospitals where I live were never overwhelmed, we have a relative degree of freedom - eg we have been able to socialise, indoors or outdoors, throughout the winter. Lockdown is easing, schools are a thousand times safer than they are in the UK, and the next group to be vaccinated after over 80s and healthcare workers have been the police, teachers and other similar services.

You can’t imagine the relief I felt when vulnerable relatives and friends in the UK received their vaccine. They needed it so badly, the country was in such a bad shape at Christmas. Incidences of 800+ and schools and shops still open?? We went into panic mode here when the incidence reached 200.

Now millions of people are due their second doses and these might be delayed even further than 12 weeks. That’s an experiment, for anyone receiving Pfizer. It’s lack of planning. It’s wanting to win a race with numbers, not by providing actual protection to people. The EU has also experienced supply delays and shortages, but if your second dose was planned in 3 weeks’ time, and it’s now in 5 weeks, I’d say that’s miles better than planning it after 12 weeks and delivering it after 16.

Given how much more efficient the roll out has been than was anticipated, it will be neither here nor there in the longer term.

I’m not slagging off the vaccine programme, I’m pointing out that if the government doesn’t want to be open about things like delays (which are quite likely well outside their control anyway) it will inevitably lead to speculation and journalists poking around.

@Avondklok

I might have had a tiny chuckle to myself that U.K. issue is just a SUPPLY issue, that AZ promised 10 million from India, but will only send 5 million. After ALL those posts where AZ didn't deliver before and it was all the EUs fault.

Yes indeed...the sheer desperation to blame and trash the EU is palpable on many of these threads.

EileenGC

“Now millions of people are due their second doses and these might be delayed even further than 12 weeks. “

What are you basing this assertion on?
First doses are being temporarily suspended precisely to ensure that second doses are delivered in a timely way.

Completely unfounded scaremongering.

People seem to have become complacent about this remarkable programme very quickly

Quite.

and number of people who have lost their jobs and financial security.

@EileenGC do you have any stats on that? Because I wasn’t aware that the economic impact of the pandemic was any worse here than it is in the EU. It’s been shit across the board.

Lockdown is easing

Tell that to the Italians!

@DenisetheMenace

EileenGC

“Now millions of people are due their second doses and these might be delayed even further than 12 weeks. “

What are you basing this assertion on?
First doses are being temporarily suspended precisely to ensure that second doses are delivered in a timely way.

Completely unfounded scaremongering.

Yes agree I thought it was the point

Not sure where pp got that from

EileenGC what an absolutely repellent post.

Yep, a lot like this on here atm

I agree with Eileen. People here are angry because everything else being mismanaged is putting their family at risk for longer. Schools/reopening pubs etc. And gov let covid get out of control every time meaning the overwhelming of the nhs means you wouldnt get treatment if you needed it. Then if you get LC there is no treatment either.

It is a reflection of how badly gov are managing covid that so many on here are desperate for the jab.

And of course there was also the annoyances about nhs sending links around where loads of random people booked. Or gps inviting all their mates. If these had all been cracked down on then more 40s would be being vaxxed.
Plus of course the gov have lied so much already. But where is the lie here, that the 40s were ever going to get it soon, Have they prioritised london maybe?

It is a reflection of how badly gov are managing covid that so many on here are desperate for the jab.

Codswallop. People want the jab so we can open up the economy and get back to “normal” as soon as possible. There’s no way you can do that whilst a pandemic is raging, no matter how well managed.

Completely unfounded scaremongering.

I’m not the first one on this thread to say that someone’s (that we personally know of) second dose has been delayed further than 12 weeks. Which like I said, it’s simply an experiment. In 3 years’ time we might find out that it worked, but we just don’t know yet.

And yep, it’s repellent when someone states their opinion and points out that, like other countries, the UK too has had their faults during this pandemic.

To a PP asking about stats on job losses. I don’t have specific stats and I don’t even know if someone’s looked into it yet. What I DO know, is that my industry has been decimated in the UK. I don’t know of one UK colleague who hasn’t been screwed up financially. The government deemed their jobs unsafe (they really aren't, they just needed a shit tonne of investment to make them safe, money that BJ gave to an ineffective T&T system, and to his friends). This is in an industry that employs 3m people (arts and other creative industries). Most of whom are completely screwed financially and haven’t been able to work in a year. My personal experience (as opposed to stats) shows that I’ve had a job throughout the last 12 months, a salary, and I’m not being laid off anytime soon. Unfortunately none of my UK colleagues can say the same. That’s what’s scary, people not being able to provide for their families.

The level of fear on here is off the scale.

India is about to start another wave - letting that get out of control I think is actually going to potentially cause more issues than if the under 50s (of which I am one) done in the UK. Getting it under control globally should be the aim because that is where the variants come from.

If the over 50s are done (and the second vaccine needs to be prioritised) then the NHS shouldnt be overwhelmed and we should be able to continue on.

Yes it would be nice to have the vaccine (and we have both had COVID) but the risk to me is no greater than anything else. We seem to have lost perspective here about what this is all about and the risks involved.

Christ on a bike!

That's some post @EileenGC

I'm going to repeat myself - be very bloody careful about comments on the death toll. It isn't over and we don't know how the pattern of deaths/waves will play out across the world yet. Quite a few other countries have a very similar per million population death toll. If you are looking at the UK to be The Worst and taking some comfort from that, don't go looking at the actual data.

Taking any nationalistic stance is pointless.

Believing any journalistic article is pointless

Disbelieving any government statement and assuming it is hiding something just because it is the government is pointless

Reading SM shite and allowing it to scare you is pointless

All we, as individuals, can actually do is make a decision based on our own biases. Have the jab, don't have the jab. But don't spout the bollocks that is based on nothing, or dubious versions of real data!

Vaccines save lives. Covid kills and can make many healthy people very ill.

All else is essentially unecessary frills, often embroidered with journalistic zeal!

So my post has been removed - Why?
A deeply unpleasant post, revelling in people's misery and asserting European Superiority .... still stands?
Mumsnet ??
Brain??
🤦🏼‍♀️

Reading SM shite and allowing it to scare you is pointless

I definitely don’t get information off social media. I read actual data, which you say we shouldn’t be looking at

Be very bloody careful about comments on the death toll
Why? It’s not a secret. In the same way it isn’t a secret that the EU are way too bureaucratic, which is the main reason why the vaccine programme is so slow.

Your explanation is oversimplified. Vaccine saves lives, Covid kills is an oversimplified version of the reality. I won’t bother explaining anything further because you probably won’t be able to understand it.