Vaccine supply about to significantly reduce

[DareIask]

Looks like Europe may have got their way

To a PP asking about stats on job losses. I don’t have specific stats and I don’t even know if someone’s looked into it yet.

@EileenGC so why present it as fact in your previous post?

@CuriousaboutSamphire

In a randomised controlled trials, which gives the most robust evidence, the Pfizer vaccine was given three weeks apart and the AstraZeneca 6 to 12 weeks apart. There are no randomised controlled trials demonstrating that a longer time period than 12 weeks is better. The time between Pfizer vaccines was lengthened to get more people vaccinated. It wasn't because it is known to make it more effective. And yet the emergent data suggests that there might be some benefits to health and efficacy in the delays, further research to come.

Who knows what the standard trial delay will be in future. 3 weeks seems less and less useful as all of this goes on!

The emergent data isn't at the level of a randomised controlled trial. It also Hasn't demonstrated that a delay longer than 12 weeks will provide benefits at all. Nobody has had a longer delay than that for the AstraZeneca. There is certainly no evidence that the Pfizer vaccine should be delayed longer than 12 weeks.

Dh has a second dose booked for 6/4 and it hasn’t been cancelled yet. Mine should be two weeks later ( both Pfizer).

This is just a blip. It is more important to be absolutely sure those that are most at risk have their second doses than it is to vaccinate lots of people that are healthy, young ish and likely to stay that way even if they catch covid.

I think they are being sensible. Lets get the priority groups done and dusted, get our lives back on track now and show some patience.

I am one of the late forties people - critical worker but not vulnerable. I was disappointed a little, but happy we can still come out of lockdown as planned.

I am also not adverse to helping the elderly in Europe - they are just on the verge of the mother of all third waves, I truly believe things are going to be very very bad there in the coming weeks. I want to save as many lives as possible, and if that means sharing vaccines then I am okay with that. Most of our 40 year olds will be just fine, and we know the EU are really struggling and many will die unless we help. So although I think the way the EU are going about it is really reckless, I nonetheless support saving lives.

No dingdong - some people want a vax to go to the pub/on holiday. Many people want the jab because if they dont get it they will catch it from their school age dc.
If i were wfh no dc i wouldnt give a crap.
People are mainly not taking the vax to help the economy open up.
And no others having the vax doesnt make me safe. Because they can still spread it. (Probabky less) bjt the people have largly shown themselves to be selfish and so will all be meeting at the pub/in houses and hugging etc etc and that will spread it among the unvaxxed and kids very quickly. Ad obviously all the 'idiots offf on holiday abroad and cruising etc.

Even people vqxxed this week 2nd doses willbe just before jun reopening

The bbc had someone saying how more 40s have been in icu than 85+ because obviously they dont icu elderly.

Anyway this will affect the economy as some 40s will obviously refrain from going in pubs while unvaxxed. Nor be taking kids swimming or even going shopping because gov can imply they are safe but some wont be taking chances

And add in the fines for non school attendance giving people so much choice about the risks they take

@Belladonna12 I don't think you read what I intended to write! My apologies for that!

Emergent data - data collected part way through a longer study. As in the data collected on any of the current vaccines is less than 12 week, and, tentatively, the drop off rates are slower than anticipated. All tentative, emergent and as yet incomplete.

Nothing has been demonstrated yet as longer trials are, of necessity, incomplete. As I said, in time we will know so much more. Mainly that the 3 week standard delay bewteen 2-part vaccines, that was used for convenience rather than any medical reason, may not be optimal for all vaccines.

I hope that clarified what I meant.

Many people want the jab because if they dont get it they will catch it from their school age dc. If i were wfh no dc i wouldnt give a crap.

Yes, agree. I wouldn't mind waiting at all if I could WFH and didn't have kids - if I had some degree of control over the risk I'm being forced to be exposed to.

Even if my child was allowed to wear a mask in class - which she wants to do (and if everyone else was, teachers and children - in her year 6 class of 30 in a tiny room) then I'd feel differently. But they've sent my kids back into crowded schools with no protection at all against airborne spread and I have no-one to look after my kids if their late 40s parents with underlying conditions get ill.

So I'm quite pissed off to have been encouraged to think that we might be getting some protection in the next few weeks only to have that hope snatched away - much as my hope that they'd do something to try and reduce transmission in school was also snatched away.

@HSHorror

No dingdong - some people want a vax to go to the pub/on holiday. Many people want the jab because if they dont get it they will catch it from their school age dc. If i were wfh no dc i wouldnt give a crap. People are mainly not taking the vax to help the economy open up. And no others having the vax doesnt make me safe. Because they can still spread it. (Probabky less) bjt the people have largly shown themselves to be selfish and so will all be meeting at the pub/in houses and hugging etc etc and that will spread it among the unvaxxed and kids very quickly. Ad obviously all the 'idiots offf on holiday abroad and cruising etc.

Even people vqxxed this week 2nd doses willbe just before jun reopening

The bbc had someone saying how more 40s have been in icu than 85+ because obviously they dont icu elderly.

Anyway this will affect the economy as some 40s will obviously refrain from going in pubs while unvaxxed. Nor be taking kids swimming or even going shopping because gov can imply they are safe but some wont be taking chances

And add in the fines for non school attendance giving people so much choice about the risks they take

I'm not taking the vaccine to help the economy. I'm taking it to potentially save my life plus keep my family safe.

I've not had it yet. It is what it is. Other people's needs are greater than mine.

It's not going to stop me getting on with my life in a sensible way.

So the kids will go swimming just like they did. They will go to school and I won't panic about Covid coming into the house every day.

Pubs are reopening soon. If I can't go so be it. I think going to pub is less important than a life.

Confession, I have not read every post.
There was notification some weeks ago that the factories are going to reduce production whilst the carry-out maintenance and upgrades.
EU is threatening to invoke emergency legislation, Ursula vL was on news today.
So far the EU has not got agreement from member states yet and the factories will resume production after the work.

So no need to panic yet.
If my summary is wrong I am sure you will tell me.

@austenwildfell

Confession, I have not read every post. There was notification some weeks ago that the factories are going to reduce production whilst the carry-out maintenance and upgrades. EU is threatening to invoke emergency legislation, Ursula vL was on news today. So far the EU has not got agreement from member states yet and the factories will resume production after the work. So no need to panic yet. If my summary is wrong I am sure you will tell me.

I think that's a fair summary of a good portion of what is going on

Done a little reading on this.

It seems that the Irish press think the EU talk of stopping exports of vaccinations is more about the US export ban on vaccines and on materials for producting vaccines which is in place until May. More so than issues with the UK.

Apparently one of the alternative vaccines to AZ and Pfizer which the EU have bought may be affected by this.

And its certainly having an effect on the production of vaccine too.

From the BBC:
The Serum Institute of India - which produces Novavax and AstraZeneca vaccines - recently raised concerns about raw material shortages.

Its chief executive, Adar Poonawalla, attributed this to US export bans on specific items needed to make vaccines, such as specialised bags and filters.

The firm said it has also faced difficulties importing cell culture media, single-use tubing and specialised chemicals from the US.

Worth keeping an eye on from this point of view....

@IloveJKRowling

Many people want the jab because if they dont get it they will catch it from their school age dc. If i were wfh no dc i wouldnt give a crap.

Yes, agree. I wouldn't mind waiting at all if I could WFH and didn't have kids - if I had some degree of control over the risk I'm being forced to be exposed to.

Even if my child was allowed to wear a mask in class - which she wants to do (and if everyone else was, teachers and children - in her year 6 class of 30 in a tiny room) then I'd feel differently. But they've sent my kids back into crowded schools with no protection at all against airborne spread and I have no-one to look after my kids if their late 40s parents with underlying conditions get ill.

So I'm quite pissed off to have been encouraged to think that we might be getting some protection in the next few weeks only to have that hope snatched away - much as my hope that they'd do something to try and reduce transmission in school was also snatched away.

I have no-one to look after my kids if their late 40s parents with underlying conditions get ill.

Neither did my husband and I when we got it in the winter. It wasn’t great but we managed as have masses of other people and I’m in a higher risk category. For the vast majority of non-vulnerable people it’s not pleasant but a few weeks delay is not worth this angst!

Particularly when, as this seems to be a particular issue for you, for two/three weeks of that delayed time the schools are on holiday.

Worth keeping an eye on from this point of view.... Yes, I was looking at some more esoteric stuff late last night. Again it seems to be a logistocal nightmare with every country reliant on other countries fo supplies - just as it always has been.

Any talk of protectionism will cause a minor panic. We seem to expect it from the US, which has always had that attitude. But the EU? That has been something of an unpleasant shock. Somethign I don't remember having had brought to our attention before this. Again, too much journalism not enough politicking, perhaps!

Probably a stupid question but as it's been known for months there would be this huge global demand for vaccines and that we would have at least one safe and effective vaccine to put into production, why haven't more production facilities been set up to be used for this? There must be other pharmaceutical companies in other countries who could do it? I think I read something about companies like Pfizer and Moderna not wanting to share their formula to be produced elsewhere? That seems so frustrating in such a global crisis.

Naomi O'Leary
@NaomiOhReally @NaomiOhReally
A key concern is what effect US export ban could have on the 55mln J&J one-shot doses due.
Biden has said he won't export until all US is vaccinated, expected in May.
This is key context to the push for reciprocal export agreements, not the UK, despite the hooting and hollering.

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/eu-mulls-curbing-vaccine-exports-in-bid-to-reach-inoculation-target-1.4513108
EU mulls curbing vaccine exports in bid to reach inoculation target
Bloc has sent 41m doses abroad since February, but some countries have blocked exports in return

Since February 1st, 41 million doses have been sent from the EU to 33 countries, the largest chunk to the United Kingdom and some to the United States, which has an export ban on vaccines that is raising concerns about the bloc’s access to the one-shot Johnson & Johnson jabs that are due for delivery from April.

“If this situation does not change, we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness,” Dr von der Leyen told journalists, adding: “We will reflect on whether exports to countries who have higher vaccination rates than us are still proportionate.”

The UK need another 12million Pfizer vaccines. Thats not many in the scheme of things.

55million one shot doses (equivalent to 110million of Pfizer or AZ) by the US is something of a bigger deal.

How this is being reported differently around the world, is in itself cause for concern because of the diplomatic issues it creates.

@nordica

Probably a stupid question but as it's been known for months there would be this huge global demand for vaccines and that we would have at least one safe and effective vaccine to put into production, why haven't more production facilities been set up to be used for this? There must be other pharmaceutical companies in other countries who could do it? I think I read something about companies like Pfizer and Moderna not wanting to share their formula to be produced elsewhere? That seems so frustrating in such a global crisis.

They have done this. Pfizer have agreements with sanofi and Novartis I believe. They’ve also built new factories. They don’t have unlimited funds though and they’ve also struggled to source the actual hardware of bungs, glass vials etc

@nordica

Probably a stupid question but as it's been known for months there would be this huge global demand for vaccines and that we would have at least one safe and effective vaccine to put into production, why haven't more production facilities been set up to be used for this? There must be other pharmaceutical companies in other countries who could do it? I think I read something about companies like Pfizer and Moderna not wanting to share their formula to be produced elsewhere? That seems so frustrating in such a global crisis.

It's partly because they have been set up that there is a shortage of various elements needed, like vials, needles, the fabric for screening etc.

When all the manufacturuers are looking at a few sources for a single element their will be a shortage, especially if the element is naturally occuring one!

Why are so many people with DC at school convinced they are going to catch Covid? Someone upthread stated that they 'will' catch Covid??

I am nearly 47, 4 DC in two different schools (one secondary) and would absolutely hate them to feel that their attendance at school is stressing me out (hopefully your DC don't). It isn't because I feel that the risk of them not being at school is far greater. I appreciate that individual circumstances are very different but rates locally are low and there was only one case at DC1's school in the Autumn (despite our moving into Tier 4 in December) and none that I am aware of in the primary. I appreciate there may have been asymptomatic cases and know that some families had members who caught it but happily it didn't appear to go into school (one family I do know, only 1 member caught it, the other three were fine).

Much better to focus on second jabs for those who really need them and then back to the 40 somethings. And as for looking after children if you fall ill, that is always a risk with school age children - I always count myself massively lucky to have avoided norovirus as that is a huge challenge (and we also have no one locally to help).

It has struck me as a weird move to get shirty about AZ supply when many EU citizens do not want AZ anyway.

UvdL gave a bunch of figures at yesterdays pressure conference. She detailed how many vaccines they were expecting by end of quarter 2. It far exceeded what they needed for 70% of the EU adult population that they were looking at.

In theory, there is enough to cover what they want without using any AZ and without much issue regarding export of 12million (single) Pfizer vaccines to the UK. In theory. However they are still likely to get that AZ delivery.

However there starts to become issues if they lose the 55million (equivalent double) J&J doses.

The UK were also expecting some J&J supply (although not yet approved).

So obviously we would be impacted by this US ban too (on top of the indirect issues through india).

@nordica

Probably a stupid question but as it's been known for months there would be this huge global demand for vaccines and that we would have at least one safe and effective vaccine to put into production, why haven't more production facilities been set up to be used for this? There must be other pharmaceutical companies in other countries who could do it? I think I read something about companies like Pfizer and Moderna not wanting to share their formula to be produced elsewhere? That seems so frustrating in such a global crisis.

Pfizer HAVE licenced production of their vaccines to other rival companies. I forget the name of the big French company whose vaccine didn't work, but they are now set up for production of Pfizer. AZ have done similar. I am fairly sure that the American companies have done similar in the US too.

I believe the issue is more to do with supply chain issues (components for vaccines) and maintaining quality that has made Pfizer and AZ reluctant to licence to other companies - they don't want their brand name associated with dodgy batches (see whats going on with AZ in Italy for more on why this really is a fair and legitimate consideration - a batch is being considered faulty and theres talk of manslaughter charges - which also means issues with liability). In terms of expertise they need people to go to new sites and set them up - and there's limitations on this through how many people they have.

It sounds like there are ongoing issues with the Netherlands AZ production site. 10 personal from the UK AZ production site apparently have been trying to resolve them. It highlights how you need people with knowledge of the production process of that particular vaccine to get sites up and running and to be able to maintain quality. You can't just draft in people who have run production for other drugs because the system will be slightly different and they would have knowledge to fine tune for that particular vaccine.

Just taking the patents misses this crucial element and makes it over simplified.

Remember it also took something like 3 months to set up the UK AZ plants as it was anyway. So time doesn't allow for this type of intervention on a practical level but it sounds good in a speech.

This is going to sound bonkers I couldn't believe it when I read it but seen the same few sources now so should be true.
The j and j vaccine will be made in Europe or Switzerland and then send to USA for bottling then sent back to Europe.
The fear is Americans stop the j &j exports going back to Europe.
I find it hard to believe Biden with do this but the last year the unthinkable has happened many times
Doesn't sound very green and eco either.

I anticipate a delay in janson to both Europe and the UK.

www.thelocal.de/20210312/germany-expects-delayed-johnson-johnson-vaccine-to-arrive-in-mid-to-late-april/

...if their late 40s parents with underlying conditions get ill.

Parents with underlying conditions known to increase Covid risk (e.g. diabetes, BMI over 40) are being vaccinated now in Group 6.

Parents who think they have got underlying conditions (e.g. mild asthma which in fact decreases the risk) may have to wait extra time but, to be fair, we were never promised the vaccine in March or April. The only formal "commitment" was to offer us the first dose of vaccine by July 31. I am pretty sure it will actually happen earlier.

@RedToothBrush

It has struck me as a weird move to get shirty about AZ supply when many EU citizens do not want AZ anyway.

UvdL gave a bunch of figures at yesterdays pressure conference. She detailed how many vaccines they were expecting by end of quarter 2. It far exceeded what they needed for 70% of the EU adult population that they were looking at.

In theory, there is enough to cover what they want without using any AZ and without much issue regarding export of 12million (single) Pfizer vaccines to the UK. In theory. However they are still likely to get that AZ delivery.

However there starts to become issues if they lose the 55million (equivalent double) J&J doses.

I think its quite clear that the EU are saying to J&J, we will destroy your reputation too if you do not deliver to us.

Even the timing of the safety concerns is very coincidental and it always is very coincidental with AZ.

The problem is, VDL is piss poor at her job and that is very clear from her handling if these situations.

@Unmellowbirds

Why are so many people with DC at school convinced they are going to catch Covid? Someone upthread stated that they 'will' catch Covid??

I am nearly 47, 4 DC in two different schools (one secondary) and would absolutely hate them to feel that their attendance at school is stressing me out (hopefully your DC don't). It isn't because I feel that the risk of them not being at school is far greater. I appreciate that individual circumstances are very different but rates locally are low and there was only one case at DC1's school in the Autumn (despite our moving into Tier 4 in December) and none that I am aware of in the primary. I appreciate there may have been asymptomatic cases and know that some families had members who caught it but happily it didn't appear to go into school (one family I do know, only 1 member caught it, the other three were fine).

Much better to focus on second jabs for those who really need them and then back to the 40 somethings. And as for looking after children if you fall ill, that is always a risk with school age children - I always count myself massively lucky to have avoided norovirus as that is a huge challenge (and we also have no one locally to help).

Because we live in an area where 20% of the classes at both my teen's secondaries had Covid! As mentioned upthread, one child had six isolations, the other three. Classes being sent home most days and school closed early in Dec due to numerous cases in year 10.

Can't you see our experiences are different?

Mine attend inner city schools in densely populated areas, where vaccine take up is lower than average.

My one teen did bring Covid back from school.
We went to great lengths to avoid this in our home because my other child is asthmatic.