Vaccine supply about to significantly reduce

[DareIask]

Looks like Europe may have got their way

I know but they have only just started giving second doses as they give them 12 weeks apart. So they may have had spare doses as it was too soon for people to be given their second dose.

@Quartz2208

I wonder as well with the NHS letter how much it is saying no more dropping down the lists to the under 50s - everything in the roadmap is about making sure every over 50 is offered by the 15th April. A lot of places seem to have gone off script on this and offered under at the expense of others in that group. I think this is as well a diplomatic way to say you cant do that it needs to go to the over 50s.

As a BAME person who is 40 something who has autoimmune and clotting disorders that make inflammatatory responses to covid more likely, I am really worried that me and others like me who are at real risk, may be deprioritized over healthy white people.

A lot of areas understand this too and that’s why they have been offering vaccines to younger people whose conditions don’t meet the NHS criteria.

Nothing to do with the EU, it’s production in India that has slowed

Timeline
UK get big AZ order from India sorted
Eu doing badly in roll out
Eu threaten to block exports
Uk suddenly have a vaccine supply issue
Pfizer say "what issue?"
Experts remain unconcerned about supply

Any chance we are telling a bit of a porky ?

@halcyondays

I know but they have only just started giving second doses as they give them 12 weeks apart. So they may have had spare doses as it was too soon for people to be given their second dose.

The second dose should be given up to 12 weeks later. It doesn't matter if it is at 10 weeks and better to do that than use up supplies so that the second dose can't be given until much later due to drop in supply.

@Druidlookingidiot

Timeline UK get big AZ order from India sorted Eu doing badly in roll out Eu threaten to block exports Uk suddenly have a vaccine supply issue Pfizer say "what issue?" Experts remain unconcerned about supply

Any chance we are telling a bit of a porky ?

No.

It's been known this was going to happen for a few days, before VdLs latest comments. See this thread on the FT analysis: twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1371178161510170624?s=19

If one area had finished over 50s then supply should have been diverted to areas behind. Maybe a national directive should have gone out before now. It’s right that they focus on over 50s and the vulnerable.

30 and 40 year olds shouldn’t have been vaccinated if older people were still waiting. Especially if there is a potential supply problem.

It's really interesting reading that article. Quote from the Indian manufacturer ...we will try to supply more later, based on the current situation and the requirement for the government immunisation programme in India.

See that bit... the needs of the Indian vaccine programme.

1. No UK government outcry about promised vaccines not being delivered, just another rote letter about supply having gone lumpy

1. Seems that the UK contract with Serum is the same as the AZ one, but this time to the UKs detriment - home country = primary contract, needs will be met first

It makes perfect GLOBAL sense that we stop and take stock, check back with all the as yet unvaccinated people in vulnerable groups. I thought that was the initial plan, read it somewhere ages ago. That some areas have been racing ahead is a matter of logistics. Vaccine was delivered, has a shelf life, was used. Maybe in hindsight those areas should not have raced ahead, should have slowed down, started their check back and/or 2nd doses. But the important thing was that vaccines weren't wasted.

It's a bit like the overly aggressive journo questioning last night: Why won't you speed up the road map; the vaccines for everyone, hurry, hurry, hurry. No bloody thanks for being ahead of schedule, for a reasonably easy system - I got both a letter inviting me to book online and call from my GP, the system works even out here in the boonies! Even if I do have to wait for another 3 weeks before I can get an booking slot! We are 55 and 59, so our roll out has been REALLY slow compared to other areas! But we kept our eye on the original dates and were happy that we were being seen in line with those dates, depsite living in an area with a very large older and vulnerable population.

And no, neither of us work from home. DH works all over the country and I am self employed, with no work at all at the moment. I am not being complacent because we are safe.

If one area had finished over 50s then supply should have been diverted to areas behind. Maybe a national directive should have gone out before now. It’s right that they focus on over 50s and the vulnerable. That has always been done whenever possible. But sometimes the diversion would be too late for the very fast system and once unpacked the vaccines can't be sent on. It's just one of those things that happens in such a fast moving supply line.

The policy so far has been to give them 12 weeks apart. And research has shown that they give more effective protection if given at least 12 weeks apart.

Pfizer deliveries are decreasing from April. Not sure if this was predictable from the contract
The UK hasn’t banned vaccine exports

@GrumpyHoonMain if you were at risk of COVID you’d have place in category 6. That’s what has happened in the last month when millions of people have been put in that category when the nhs has reassess the shielding list and found around 1m that should be prioritise for the vaccine and are getting it now

@GrumpyHoonMain there were extra guidance notes issued from the JCVI on exactly this. You should be considered by your GP for group 6 on this basis. Have you approached your GP?

This is denied by AZ and Pfizer news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-deny-coronavirus-vaccine-shortage-12249287

[quote EasterIssland]@GrumpyHoonMain if you were at risk of COVID you’d have place in category 6. That’s what has happened in the last month when millions of people have been put in that category when the nhs has reassess the shielding list and found around 1m that should be prioritise for the vaccine and are getting it now[/quote]
It’s not as simple as that. It’s a bit of a lottery for people with neurological conditions such as M.E as it’s left to the GP surgery to decide what group to put them in. Some doctors will put them in group 6, some won’t.

Also for things like asthma, some people have only put in group 6 if they’ve been recently hospitalised but others have been able to get prioritised for the jab more easily. It’s not consistent.

Then there’s people with LDs, many of whom weren’t in group 6 until guidance was changed after Jo Whiley’s sister was in hospital.

[quote BrownFootStool]This is denied by AZ and Pfizer news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-deny-coronavirus-vaccine-shortage-12249287[/quote]
Not really! The letter didn't say there was a threat to supply. Even when Lan Kuenssberg was dping her best to read between the very formal lines, they said a "significant reduction" in supply - which we all know was ahead of itself for aw heil, that's why the UK programme is ahead of the expected deadlines.

It said nothing abot the overall supply being delayed, Pfizer and AZ are right, are simply stating a fact, there is no threat to supply. They aren't contradicting Hancock, read the quotes not the jouralistic bluster around them! If you read the NHS letter and listen to what Hancock said, it's just another bump, the usual batch testing issues, REALLY nothing to see here.

The article says precisely that, but in more journalistic "Oh the horror" language, right at the end

The vaccine manufacturers hit out after Health Secretary Matt Hancock said at a Downing Street news conference that supply was "always lumpy" and the NHS England warning was "par for the course".

@halcyondays

The policy so far has been to give them 12 weeks apart. And research has shown that they give more effective protection if given at least 12 weeks apart.

In a randomised controlled trials, which gives the most robust evidence, the Pfizer vaccine was given three weeks apart and the AstraZeneca 6 to 12 weeks apart. There are no randomised controlled trials demonstrating that a longer time period than 12 weeks is better. The time between Pfizer vaccines was lengthened to get more people vaccinated. It wasn't because it is known to make it more effective.

[quote purplebagladylovesgin]@GrumpyHoonMain there were extra guidance notes issued from the JCVI on exactly this. You should be considered by your GP for group 6 on this basis. Have you approached your GP? [/quote]
Yes they refused to consider it. I am now in the process of asking the hospital to consider me in their vaccine programme.

[quote BrownFootStool]This is denied by AZ and Pfizer news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-deny-coronavirus-vaccine-shortage-12249287[/quote]
AZ are talking purely about their domestic supply in that article though (ie the vaccine they manufacture in the UK). The delayed supply of AZ vaccine is the 5m order coming from India

[quote EasterIssland]@GrumpyHoonMain if you were at risk of COVID you’d have place in category 6. That’s what has happened in the last month when millions of people have been put in that category when the nhs has reassess the shielding list and found around 1m that should be prioritise for the vaccine and are getting it now[/quote]
GPs are using their judgement. My GP has refused to consider vaccinating me but my friend who is also in her 40s lives 3 miles away and had both of her pfizer jabs already - because her GP had priortised her because of the added BAME risk. It’s not consistant.

Akire

Not every group 6 can book online we have been told wait for GP to contact. England has been much better than other area. Wales only doing some 60s this week.“

This is not correct. You do not have to wait to be contacted if you are over 50. Go on and book now, you just need your NHS number (if April appointments have not already been suspended because of the temporary slowdown).

The Telegraph is now reporting that the interruption to supply is due to India “temporarily” holding back exports of 5 million AZ vaccines manufactured there.

There was a global paracetamol shortage in the first wave of Covid, because India put an export ban on it, and it’s mostly made there.

If this whole mess has taught us anything, it’s that we need to manufacture essential items like pharmaceuticals here in the UK. Indiscriminate globalisation is over.

@LacyEdge

The Telegraph is now reporting that the interruption to supply is due to India “temporarily” holding back exports of 5 million AZ vaccines manufactured there.

There was a global paracetamol shortage in the first wave of Covid, because India put an export ban on it, and it’s mostly made there.

If this whole mess has taught us anything, it’s that we need to manufacture essential items like pharmaceuticals here in the UK. Indiscriminate globalisation is over.

India is having a second wave. Considering Lockdown caused more deaths in India due to starvation than Covid-19 they relaxed it really early - but things are still not back to normal for the poor. It would be morally wrong to expect India to honour all of it’s foreign commitments at the expense of people dying there. That’s why the EU is blaming the UK rather than India and why the Uk is blaming Indian supply rather than the government’s immunisation policy. Only a real fuckwit would expect the Indian government to let a population size equivalent to Europe die just so richer white people can go on holiday a bit earlier.

It was silly for people to become complacent, and so positive, of course we were going encounter problems and delays with the vaccine, it was all to good to be true from day one

@LacyEdge

The Telegraph is now reporting that the interruption to supply is due to India “temporarily” holding back exports of 5 million AZ vaccines manufactured there.

There was a global paracetamol shortage in the first wave of Covid, because India put an export ban on it, and it’s mostly made there.

If this whole mess has taught us anything, it’s that we need to manufacture essential items like pharmaceuticals here in the UK. Indiscriminate globalisation is over.

I’m not sure they know. Commentator wouldn’t be drawn into blame on R4 are which country has lower supply.

It feels much if this is speculation in the press.