What happens about the unvaccinated ?

[vera99]

There is a lot of speculation about how many will buy into the continuing vaccination program. Some has said 20% won't but I'm sure it will be less than that. We don't know any would be refuseniks. But say it's 10% and suppose Covid will become stronger and therefore potentially more lethal and troublesome will that not lead to many more deaths and hospitalisations amongst this cohort and by doing so threaten the capacity of the hospital's once again ? Hopefully not of course does anyone know of any modelling around that outcome. Therapeutics of course will be of importance to lessen any resultant disease and persuading the currently unpersuaded remains of paramount importance. The stick of no vaccine no travel or no entry will be a great persuader no doubt as well.

[quote EasterIssland]For those of you that breast-feed, you know that it's allowed to have the vaccine and that they're doing tests and finding antibodies in the breast milk of those mums that have been vaccinated? so if that's the case you could be passing antibodies as well to your children?
www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2021/03/04/antibodies-for-covid-19-found-in-breast-milk-after-vaccine/?sh=58094fba6f4e[/quote]
Exactly they are doing tests- I’m not comfortable in anyway taking this whilst nursing !!!

Well, don't be too sure about flu not causing lockdowns - I read this article yesterday. I feel it's pure speculation but it worries me because are we heading towards more lockdowns the minute flu (or any) virus infection rates increase?

Excerpts:

The UK must prepare for a "hard winter" because the population immunity to respiratory viruses other than Covid could be lower than usual, one of England's top medics has warned.

Dr Susan Hopkins said the NHS must be "ready" for surges in flu and other similar illnesses.

Dr Hopkins, who is in charge of Public Health England's Covid strategy, said the UK needed to be "better prepared" than it was last autumn, when new, faster-spreading variants of the virus emerged.

Flu can be a serious condition - it kills around 11,000 people in England each year and many more people receive hospital treatment for it.

Is this going to lead to lockdowns or restrictions just like we've been experiencing with Covid? Will 'don't kill your granny' be invoked again to get people to take the flu vaccine (which we know is less effective than the Covid vaccines as it relies on predictive efforts many months in advance to identify risky strains of flu).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56312621

As soon as the unvaccinated actually see their vaccinated friends accessing things that they cannot, 90% of them will be asking for a vaccine.
Agreed. I will strongly support restaurants who require proof of vaccination before entry. I will be requesting to be treated by HCPs who have been vaccinated. I won’t hire a tradesman who hasn’t been vaccinated - I’ve already seen an advert for a plumber saying “Covid secure business, vaccinated plumber available on request”.

What happens to those not having the flu vaccine?

Anyway, uptake is very high, so no reason to get worked up about this.

But also as someone said upthread:

stop the pariah narrative

Yes, but where will all the restaurants get vaccinated staff from, if care homes are struggling?

It won't be feasible to live a life only around vaccinated people, of course you can ask a workman in your home, but what about when you get on the bus, go to a restaurant, your workplace. If you want to carry on living a locked down life as a choice in response to that risk, you can, but vast swathes of younger people will not be taking a vaccine for something that is almost no risk to them, the risk/benefit scenario is so different than for over 50's.

Well, don't be too sure about flu not causing lockdowns - I read this article yesterday. I feel it's pure speculation but it worries me because are we heading towards more lockdowns the minute flu (or any) virus infection rates increase?

I'm sorry but his is crap and scaremongering. We've had literally NO flu season last and this year thanks to Covid measures - social distancing, washing hands, lockdowns.

Many of those measures are still in place and will be in place for the next couple of years. Flu won't kill as many people as usually does as the years with Covid.

As an anecdote, I asked my doctor about the flu vaccine this year and he said "don't worry about it". This is the same man who is after me every April about the bloody vaccine.

[quote CrunchyCarrot]Well, don't be too sure about flu not causing lockdowns - I read this article yesterday. I feel it's pure speculation but it worries me because are we heading towards more lockdowns the minute flu (or any) virus infection rates increase?

Excerpts:

The UK must prepare for a "hard winter" because the population immunity to respiratory viruses other than Covid could be lower than usual, one of England's top medics has warned.

Dr Susan Hopkins said the NHS must be "ready" for surges in flu and other similar illnesses.

Dr Hopkins, who is in charge of Public Health England's Covid strategy, said the UK needed to be "better prepared" than it was last autumn, when new, faster-spreading variants of the virus emerged.

Flu can be a serious condition - it kills around 11,000 people in England each year and many more people receive hospital treatment for it.

Is this going to lead to lockdowns or restrictions just like we've been experiencing with Covid? Will 'don't kill your granny' be invoked again to get people to take the flu vaccine (which we know is less effective than the Covid vaccines as it relies on predictive efforts many months in advance to identify risky strains of flu).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56312621[/quote]
Even a bad year with poor protection from the flu vaccine is not comparable to covid. We just need to invest in healthcare, we all paid the price of the chronic underfunding by having to lock down for so long

As for flu, a super-early flu vaccination programme is definitely indicated this coming year- but again, many people don't take this up even though they are vulnerable, and it's for over 50's anyway. Young people get flu, I had flu this year (don't know how given it's been extinguished, that or corona resistant to testing!), the risk is very low of something awful happening to them.

Excess mortality in the Uk is running around 10% extra (i.e. about 10% more than we would usually expect at this time of year), so not a huge huge amount, it's shocking, awful for those people, but it probably won't be enough to propel everyone into repeated lockdowns for flu/variants once people get let out. Some lucky countries, especially Nordic ones are running at lower than average excess deaths, even with Covid-19 kicking around.

www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/

Over the next year or so, until everyone (including children) have been offered the chance to be vaccinated - I think vaccination status will matter, certainly for things like air travel.

After that, only in the way that measles vaccination matters - ie, people will call anti-vaxxers selfish and foolish, there will be people who cannot be vaccinated who get sick and some who die and this will be blamed on lack of sufficient vaccine uptake, at least in part. But no concrete consequences for anti-vaxxers.

Unless, of course, Covid becomes worse, either because it becomes more deadly or contagious, or because we discover that there were previously unrecognised complications of infection. Then maybe it matters for things like school.

Covid kills many more people than flu does. It’s also generally not flu that kills people but secondary bacterial infections. It’s also a lot more infectious.

Well it did before there was a vaccine as you would expect, now there is the death rate will more than likely be similar. Most people who died with Covid also had comorbidities. Like flu, covid itself has not been the sole cause of death in most cases.

@MaxNormal

Ffs. They should put us in stocks on the village square. Some of us can't have the vaccine, please stop this fucking pariah narrative.

Agree!

The sentiment on here is fucking nasty. Lots of people not vaccinating will be choosing that because of a RISK either flagged up for further investigation or because of a confirmed risk.

Should we get the vaccine regardless of the risk to us?

It is unlikely that a spontaneous Covid mutatation will become more deadly because there’s no selective pressure for it to do so unless we’re really unlucky and a lethal mutation evolves in tandem with one which makes it more transmissible or vaccine-proof. That’s one of the reasons to avoid the herd immunity strategy. But as long as we keep alert, sequencing large samples of the virus in the community and ready to change the vaccine at short notice, we should be OK.

Unvaccinated people will get the virus, but slowly, because the vaccinated portion of the population and the people with acquired natural immunity will act as imperfect firebreaks. Vulnerable people will be more likely to take the vaccine. The unvaccinated vulnerable may have to remain isolated for years or live with a high risk, which is awful but unavoidable. Overall we’ll cope.

@Whereismymojo of course not, if you have medical reasons why you can't have the vaccine then that's one thing. If you dont have it because you dont believe in science then it's another thing,

Agreed. I will strongly support restaurants who require proof of vaccination before entry. I will be requesting to be treated by HCPs who have been vaccinated. I won’t hire a tradesman who hasn’t been vaccinated - I’ve already seen an advert for a plumber saying “Covid secure business, vaccinated plumber available on request”.

But why? I don't understand this.
If you can be vaccinated you are protected, therefore why does it matter if a waiter in a restaurant is not vaccinated or if other diners aren't?
Or do you want to punish others who have made a decision for themselves as to whether to be vaccinated or not?

I think we are moving towards Orwellian territory if we want to force individuals to take a vaccine. What we should do is to jab every single willing individual in the UK and then see where that gets us. If we still have a problem, we can address it then.

They’ll be protected to a great extent by the vast majority who will be vaccinated.
They will have to get used to living smaller lives though, as travel, employment, entertainment venues etc. require proof of vaccination.

Oohh "the unvaccinated" sounds like "the unclean".

I reckon it'll be 90% uptake generally but 75 to 80 in certain ethnicities.

To each their own. At present, I haven't been offered and not sure if I'll have the vaccine.

My elders have had their first vaccine and I don't discuss my views with them.

If one or two people don't return to restaurants as they don't want to sit amongst the unvaccinated, more room for everyone else, there's going to be a stampede of people wanting to spend money, holiday, party, go out drinking, or just enjoy family activities like theme parks.

Vaccination 'passports' are difficult to operate and could easily be forged, even if electronic. Only worth it perhaps at the border. I think places may prefer to do quick covid tests on the door than worry about trying to authenticate passports. The thing is, you can't see if someone is vaccinated, you can't even see if they are vaccinated for many things, flu, BCG, MMR, you can't tell and unless you spend your whole life asking the bus driver, all the passengers, all the other people in the restaurant, then you won't be able to know who is vaccinated.

I haven't downloaded the Track and Trace app (didn't want to, data protection) and I've never been refused anywhere, I just walk in (when not in lockdown). I will get vaccinated, but no-one will check. These businesses are crying out for customers, they aren't going to make it an unpleasant and confrontational experience with their customers to access services once the immediate risk dies down.

I wish people would stop saying Covid is no risk to younger age groups. It simply causes fewer deaths among them.
They are still at risk of having their lung function, life and wellbeing wrecked by Long Covid, and the damage can be permanent.
There are case reports of previously very fit youngsters suffering appalling long term damage - including a physical trainer in his thirties still bedbound more than six months after contracting Covid.

We should make the vaccine refusers fully aware of the potential lifetime of disability they are risking by their unwise choices.

@Babdoc

I wish people would stop saying Covid is no risk to younger age groups. It simply causes fewer deaths among them. They are still at risk of having their lung function, life and wellbeing wrecked by Long Covid, and the damage can be permanent. There are case reports of previously very fit youngsters suffering appalling long term damage - including a physical trainer in his thirties still bedbound more than six months after contracting Covid. We should make the vaccine refusers fully aware of the potential lifetime of disability they are risking by their unwise choices.

Agreeed- information not bullying with vaccine passports

I really don't plan to ask my friends or the plumber if they've been vaccinated before generously deciding to let them over the threshold of my home. That's their business - not mine. If I've been protected by the vaccine, the risk of me getting anything from them is much lower, and its a risk I'm prepared to take.

Babdoc it's surely their risk to weight up, though. I mean younger people do lots of things like drink excessively, take part in sports and so forth as a part of everyday life that are risky in some way, and do also risk disability. Someone got drunk, fell off the roof at my uni and was paralyzed, alcohol-related injuries and violence are very much standard stuff, unfortunately.

Not everyone is going to want to live in a cautious risk-averse manner, particularly not younger people.

I really don't plan to ask my friends or the plumber if they've been vaccinated before generously deciding to let them over the threshold of my home. That's their business - not mine. If I've been protected by the vaccine, the risk of me getting anything from them is much lower, and its a risk I'm prepared to take.

I agree - once my all my household, including dc, have been vaccinated. Until then, I care.

I take Babdoc's view - there is a risk to young people of Long Covid or complications that are thus far not well understood. As more information comes to light, it may prove a needless fear. But for now, I'll minimise the risk where I can.

@MoriParty

It’s in no way comparable to a flu vaccine, we’ve been locked down for half of the last year because of covid!

We were locked down because there was no vaccine. Now there is it will become exactly like flu, likely with similar death rates too.

Covid will never become exactly like flu.

The reason we are having to vaccinate everyone is because covid is a more harmful virus. This feature of covid vs. flu will not change much.

The influenza pandemic killed millions after WW1! There have been epidemics in the 50's and 60's. Flu certainly can mutate to be stronger/weaker, even in as much as a year, we have bad flu years with lots of deaths where the vaccine isn't as well tailored as it could be...