What happens about the unvaccinated ?

[vera99]

There is a lot of speculation about how many will buy into the continuing vaccination program. Some has said 20% won't but I'm sure it will be less than that. We don't know any would be refuseniks. But say it's 10% and suppose Covid will become stronger and therefore potentially more lethal and troublesome will that not lead to many more deaths and hospitalisations amongst this cohort and by doing so threaten the capacity of the hospital's once again ? Hopefully not of course does anyone know of any modelling around that outcome. Therapeutics of course will be of importance to lessen any resultant disease and persuading the currently unpersuaded remains of paramount importance. The stick of no vaccine no travel or no entry will be a great persuader no doubt as well.

@GreenBalaclava

There's no reason to suppose that Covid will become "stronger and therefore potentially more lethal". My understanding is that this isn't the typical progression of similar viruses.

In fact the opposite is the case. Viruses tend to become less lethal over time. The reason is that if people who get the virus die, then they can’t pass the virus on to other people and the virus dies out. So the virus mutates to become less lethal to ensure it’s own survival.

There are a very small number who medically shouldn’t have the vaccine. For those who chose not to they may find restrictions but in place by their employer, businesses, airlines and other countries.

I think it'll become much like the flu jab, people will have it who are vulnerable or worried about getting ill, those who are healthy and low risk will probably avoid it as much as they can because their risk is ultimately lower, the NHS won't be overrun because those at high risk will have access to vaccines that they'll take. I have been pondering though, when most are vaccinated, say little Jimmy who hasn't had the vaccine gets covid, will it ever get to the point where the teachers treat covid like a cold or will covid always be treated more like the flu?

Theres a definite difference in how the two are treated, its just a cold/runny nose, so they should be in school vs its the flu, don't even show up at the Dr's.

I saw some countries have did fro example that only vaccinated people can eat indoors leaving unvaccinated outdoors

Which makes some sense as those unvaccinated will be better protected outdoors.

I think this and next year you can expect not being able to travel internationally if you don't have the vaccine. There are rumours floating about having a PCR 7 days before travel but most countries will make their own rules.

I don't believe 100% vaccination will be required to either attend school or go to the shops etc, there are too many people that can't get vaccinated for health reasons (including the disabled) to make such drastic decisions.

I think in 2-3 years when the Covid emergency has passed and the magical 70% immunity have been achieved new second generation of vaccines will be available for everyone to choose from.

How can we be certain that the vaccine is the way out of the so called pandemic? What if we are being lied to yet again? People want the vaccine to travel but I think there might be other obstacles put in place to prevent mass travel anyway . I've had Covid like many others and it does not justify a vaccine, lockdowns, ruined livelihoods, NHS saving measures etc. People need to look at the statistic before making loud statements- and statistics paint a different picture

Viruses tend to become less lethal over time. The reason is that if people who get the virus die, then they can’t pass the virus on to other people and the virus dies out. So the virus mutates to become less lethal to ensure it’s own survival.

However, since Covid is very effective at transmitting before people become symptomatic, it doesn’t matter whether hosts subsequently die or not, it has already replicated. There is no evolutionary pressure at this stage for it to become less severe.

However, as long as it has the potential to cause serious illness and death, we are going to do all we can to control it. So in the longer term, it would be an advantage to Covid to become milder, because then we would be less inclined to avoid it. It would also help it to become something we can easily catch multiple times. Like the common cold.

The take up is high in the very high risk groups like over 80, and a bit lower as you go down the age groups.

By the time you get to younger working age people, I think it will be a lot lower, or they need additional information to persuade them to take the vaccine. Many will want or planning more children and whilst there is a recommendation to take the vaccine, some will worry that that pathway is untested (at present). Similarly, I don't see 95% turn out of parents vaccinating children either.

Many of the younger age groups have already had covid (confirmed and suspected) and many have not been that ill with it (yes, some have, but statistically we can see they are not the groups in hospital). Their perceived risk is lower, I'm sure uni students won't all have the vaccine either.

I see it as a matter of personal choice and informed consent, just like the flu jab. We don't get our knickers in a twist if people don't have the flu jab and I don't intend to worry about people not having the covid jab if most of the more vulnerable are protected, and even then it is their choice what to inject into their bodies.

As for practical levers, wanting to get a vaccine passport (however they are devised) will be a big motivator, as will any access without a vaccine proof, but for younger groups, this will include testing negative prior to, say, going to concerts etc. There won't be 'vaccinated' concerts and 'non-vaccinated' concerts.

As Covid fears drop in the population, as with flu, the urgency of having the vaccine will drop anyway. A combo flu/covid vaccine every year might be the way forward for over 50s.

I think the worry is that rather than being an overall spread of unvaccinated people, there will be pockets of it. So cities/ towns with much lower rates in all ages and that could allow it to get out of control.

I said I was a bit nervous about household mixing and DH's response was we'll only have vaccinated visitors! I can understand a few might not want to mix with family/friends if they haven't been vaccinated. This might encourage a few more,if not relationships will change.

This makes no sense anyway. If the person with concerns is vaccinated they are protected so it is irrelevant whether visitors to their home have been vaccinated or not.
Once you are vaccinated you have protection - if you haven't received the vaccine yet then I can understand wanting to wait before meeting others.

Someone I know who has received the vaccine told me that unless I have the vaccine she won't come to see me in the summer. I explained that she is protected and also explained that I am in another country where the roll out of vaccines has been an absolute disaster. I will be lucky if I see a vaccine before the autumn....
So I have told my friend that it is her choice to come or not. At the moment I have no choice whether I have the vaccine or not as there are none to be had and when they are available it is my choice whether I take it or not (which I probably will)

I’m pregnant and won’t be having the vaccine until after breastfeeding.

I won’t be travelling abroad or going to festivals with a baby, I never go to sports events so not sure what I’ll be “missing out” on!

I’m hardly an “anti vaxxer” as I had my flu jab and whooping in cough in pregnancy and the baby will get her childhood innoculations.

@Sparrowcrane

How can we be certain that the vaccine is the way out of the so called pandemic? What if we are being lied to yet again? People want the vaccine to travel but I think there might be other obstacles put in place to prevent mass travel anyway . I've had Covid like many others and it does not justify a vaccine, lockdowns, ruined livelihoods, NHS saving measures etc. People need to look at the statistic before making loud statements- and statistics paint a different picture

if we dont trust in science that has proof in the past helping us (other vaccines) then what are we going to trust in ?

@PuzzledObserver

Viruses tend to become less lethal over time. The reason is that if people who get the virus die, then they can’t pass the virus on to other people and the virus dies out. So the virus mutates to become less lethal to ensure it’s own survival.

However, since Covid is very effective at transmitting before people become symptomatic, it doesn’t matter whether hosts subsequently die or not, it has already replicated. There is no evolutionary pressure at this stage for it to become less severe.

However, as long as it has the potential to cause serious illness and death, we are going to do all we can to control it. So in the longer term, it would be an advantage to Covid to become milder, because then we would be less inclined to avoid it. It would also help it to become something we can easily catch multiple times. Like the common cold.

Yes it’s a gradual long term process. Mutations occur, and the less lethal variants prosper whilst the more lethal ones eventually die out.

It’s believed the common cold started out as a pandemic at some point.

It’s in no way comparable to a flu vaccine, we’ve been locked down for half of the last year because of covid! We can’t have people spreading it, if they have to pay extra for covid tests for voluntary activities which are super spreader events I’m afraid that’s just tough luck. There are so many different vaccines that the number of people who can’t be vaccinated is very, very low. If vaccination rates are high they will be insignificant and covid tests won’t be needed but if it’s higher then that’s not the case.

For those of you that breast-feed, you know that it's allowed to have the vaccine and that they're doing tests and finding antibodies in the breast milk of those mums that have been vaccinated? so if that's the case you could be passing antibodies as well to your children?
www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2021/03/04/antibodies-for-covid-19-found-in-breast-milk-after-vaccine/?sh=58094fba6f4e

How can we be certain that the vaccine is the way out of the so called pandemic?

Because is through vaccines that this world have controlled viral pandemics like small pox, polio, hepatitis A and B, flu and german measles to mention a few.

Don't bring your anti-vaxxer crap to a valid question.

It’s in no way comparable to a flu vaccine, we’ve been locked down for half of the last year because of covid!

We were locked down because there was no vaccine. Now there is it will become exactly like flu, likely with similar death rates too.

Viruses tend to become less lethal over time.

Yes. But in the meantime they can wipe out 50% of the population if left unchecked.

Remember the scare with Ebola in 2014?

@Alondra

How can we be certain that the vaccine is the way out of the so called pandemic?

Because is through vaccines that this world have controlled viral pandemics like small pox, polio, hepatitis A and B, flu and german measles to mention a few.

Don't bring your anti-vaxxer crap to a valid question.

All the medical experts and scientists believe a vaccine is the way out of the pandemic.

For anyone who believes otherwise please explain your reasoning and medical qualifications.

Covid kills many more people than flu does. It’s also generally not flu that kills people but secondary bacterial infections. It’s also a lot more infectious

@ChameleonClara

I don't want a system where a vaccine is required for domestic activity. Don't mind for travel. Am getting the vaccine myself, but I'm a liberal so don't want the UK to go down the controlling citizens road.

My thoughts exactly.

Mostly young healthy people won't get it. They'll probably get coronavirus one by one and a small number will die but most will be fine.

I won't take it until I'm certain there are no birth defects. As a young healthy adult I think that's ok as long as all elderly and vulnerable people get it.

Do you think there are even supplies to vaccinate everyone? I'm in the EU. It doesn't look like I'll get it any time soon.

@TrailingLobelias

Mostly young healthy people won't get it. They'll probably get coronavirus one by one and a small number will die but most will be fine.

I won't take it until I'm certain there are no birth defects. As a young healthy adult I think that's ok as long as all elderly and vulnerable people get it.

Do you think there are even supplies to vaccinate everyone? I'm in the EU. It doesn't look like I'll get it any time soon.

Do you think there are even supplies to vaccinate everyone? I'm in the EU.

The EU has bought I believe 2x the amount they need so def. there is enough for everyone In the EU.

@TrailingLobelias

Mostly young healthy people won't get it. They'll probably get coronavirus one by one and a small number will die but most will be fine.

I won't take it until I'm certain there are no birth defects. As a young healthy adult I think that's ok as long as all elderly and vulnerable people get it.

Do you think there are even supplies to vaccinate everyone? I'm in the EU. It doesn't look like I'll get it any time soon.

Are you pregnant? Do you have a proposed mechanism for how birth defects would be caused?

@TrailingLobelias

Mostly young healthy people won't get it. They'll probably get coronavirus one by one and a small number will die but most will be fine.

I won't take it until I'm certain there are no birth defects. As a young healthy adult I think that's ok as long as all elderly and vulnerable people get it.

Do you think there are even supplies to vaccinate everyone? I'm in the EU. It doesn't look like I'll get it any time soon.

I believe the UK has ordered 400 million does, so more than enough to easily vaccinate the entire population.

The EU may be another matter, with it’s well documented vaccine issues.