Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Typical big dip on Monday vaccines: 185,900 first doses, 19,684 second doses

The cases and deaths seem to be dropping very fast

Really good downward trajectory on case numbers in England. Based on specimen dates.

Sunday 28th

951 cases added, obviously only the first day of reporting but 47% lower than equivalent last week.

Saturday 27th

Second day of reporting 2629 cases added taking total to 3251.

45% lower than equivalent point last week

Friday 26th

Third day of reporting 860 cases added, total so far 5373.

37% lower than equivalent point last week

Thursday 25th

Fourth day of reporting 188 cases added total 6518.

33% lower than equivalent point last week

Rest of week

Wednesday 27% lower, Tuesday 24%, and Monday 20%

I find your stats really helpful, boys.

The numbers seem too good today right? Like did they lose some down the back of the excel sheet sofa?

So... this data not dates thing.. 😉

Obviously we all need to bear in mind that some secondary schools are starting mass testing this week - all by next week - so from midweek this will probably affect the case numbers (LFTs)

Also some symptomatic children will be sent for PCR tests who might not have been whilst schools were closed. This will be relevant from Monday.

Hopefully now a decent percentage of the population is 3 weeks post first vaccination this is showing in the data? Or am I being optimistic?

You'd expect to see vaccination having a bigger impact on transmission rates once it's the working age people who are being done - a lot of transmission clearly occurs in workplaces (especially during a lockdown) and if, say 1/5 of your colleagues are vaccinated, that ought to reduce transmission by nearly a fifth. So we could be starting to see that impact, accelerating the fall in numbers in a way that we won't have been seeing so much when it was the 65-80 age group behind done, who were already the age groups least likely to catch Covid. (The very old did also have a high chance of catching/spreading Covid, presumably due to needing care)

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Lovely people on this thread can you help please?
I am trying to source data for number of people in a particular hospital with COVID please?
I want to check as my conspiracy theorist friend on SM is claiming there are none in her local hospital. It may be true of course but it seems fishy rather like lots of her posts.
Thank you

@Firefliess I have 6 staff. Two are over 60 and are now 2 weeks post vaccine. I don't think it would take long for that to have an impact.

@Northernsoulgirl45

Lovely people on this thread can you help please? I am trying to source data for number of people in a particular hospital with COVID please? I want to check as my conspiracy theorist friend on SM is claiming there are none in her local hospital. It may be true of course but it seems fishy rather like lots of her posts. Thank you

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare - click on United Kingdom, then in the Area Type drop-down select "NHS Trusts", and in the box below pick the hospital.

There are also daily admissions here plus the monthly reports: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/.

a lot of transmission clearly occurs in workplaces (especially during a lockdown) and if, say 1/5 of your colleagues are vaccinated, that ought to reduce transmission by nearly a fifth

I think it's hard to imagine there are that many lockdown workplaces that didn't already have significant immunity from actual cases though, so it's more like 1/5th of your colleagues vaccinated and 1/3rd recently infected (likely more most places I'd've thought) so it is possibly that even a small number of vaccinated colleagues as in flowerycurtain's example is enough to squash the transmission in those workplaces.

It would be interesting to know how many of the cases in Feb were linked to working out of the home, but we never get that stats and just anecdotes about rule breaking.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Obviously we all need to bear in mind that some secondary schools are starting mass testing this week - all by next week - so from midweek this will probably affect the case numbers (LFTs)

Also some symptomatic children will be sent for PCR tests who might not have been whilst schools were closed. This will be relevant from Monday.

It will be interesting to see what impact this has.

In England positivity rates in the last week purely for LFT tests was 0.2%. In other words 1 in every 500 tested. I suspect we will see that rate further decrease.

Approx 4.5m secondary / sixth form age DCs in England. Not necessarily all will be back in school, and actual take up remains to be seen - hopefully it will be high.

P2 PCR tests - aimed specifically at people with symptoms - 4.4% positivity for perspective, with these tests accounting for 30% of P2 tests. Both these figures relating to the same most recent period as for the LFT figure.

Worth saying that for the NHS trust data, it is as the name suggests, at trust level. In my Trust area there is a designated green hospital, one specifically kept free of Covid cases. In the question upthread therefore it is possible that a local hospital may have zero Covid cases, but this almost certainly due to it having a green designation.

@boys3 - 0.2% is particularly interesting with the high volume, because I've often seen the "false positive" rate claimed to be the 0.36% from trials.

Just heard Matt Hancock say in the briefing that they’re now carrying out genomic sequencing on around a third of positive PCR tests - I remember someone asking recently if this had increased from the previous 10%, but not sure who it was that asked

It was me, thanks @lurker101, I knew it was clearly increasing but didn't know the numbers.

Woohoo, brilliant numbers today! And one of Scottish UTLAs is actually YELLOW!

Dare we dream we might see a 2 digit number in deaths next Monday? I know it's due to weekend lag, but still...

Also, am I imagining things, or is drop in cases is accelerating? It was slowing down the last couple of weeks.

Yes - www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-11-oxford-university-and-phe-confirm-lateral-flow-tests-show-high-specificity-and-are (see the actual report PDF linked later)

Says 0.39% false positive outside of the lab, if it is 0.3% then that is very low, and suggests something is up - perhaps use has improved with familiarity so it's closer to the lab rate?

But if there's a 1 in 25 false positive, and kids are doing 2 a week for the remaining ~16 weeks of the school year, means well over 10% will get a false positive, and with the current rate and only a 75% catch rate, you're not looking at much more than a 50/50 chance of it being real, let alone in the summer months with a very low covid rate. I'm not convinced by the maths on these tests, especially when a positive requires the whole family to isolate for maybe 3 days (if in a place where postal pCr is only reasonable option)

I wonder if the very low positive rate for LFTs might be in part because most of them are now DIY, and it's not very nice sticking a swab right up your nose so a lot of people just stick it up a bit and poke it around, so they're becoming less good at picking up actual infections?

Surely the false positive rate for LFTs isn't just random, but is people who've had Covid some time back showing up as positive when they're actually not contagious? I mean you wouldn't get 0.2% positive results if you just dabbed water on the test kits would you? So the false positive rate will be lower when the proportion of people who had Covid in the recent past is lower.

In terms of the case rates though, the impact of all the LFTs next week could be quite considerable - if 4m students and staff do two tests each next week, and 0.2% are positive, that's 16,000 extra positive cases identified over a 5 day period. That'll be noticeable in the figures (albeit a good thing in keeping cases down in the longer run)

In England positivity rates in the last week purely for LFT tests was 0.2%

Where do you get this number from? Is it actually published like that?