Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

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Stats: 21,930 guards, 83,618 prisoners, 150 institutes including young offenders. Most will have their own doctors, but I guess they would need training or someone to do the vaccines, and a plan for new inmates. They'd have to come behind literally every other adult (16+) institution, but it shouldn't be too challenging.

@Firefliess

I can't see it being feasible to open nightclubs 5 weeks before the adult population is vaccinated. That would presumably mean most 18-25 year olds were not yet jabbed - so nightclubs would be full of unvaccinated people at close quarters. I therefore suspect that if all goes to plan everyone will have had a first dose by early June - the numbers they're getting through each day make this look entirely plausible if you assume a bit of an increase in vaccine supply by April. I think they're just trying to set a target they can beat. Alternatively, if they do take til July to finish vaccinating adults, they'll push back the 21 June date for opening up.

Hard to justify when there will be no one in hospital.

(I’m not a covid denier).

22.5% less in Hospital week ending 27th.
19% week before (I’d argue it took a hit because of the cold weather).

I’ll go out on a limb and say it will be 22.5%+ for the coming week.

So in England by 8th March you will likely have about 8k in hospital.

Surely they could vaccinate prisons on the grounds of protecting prison staff, if it's not politically acceptable to prioritise prisoners themselves? (though I think it's pretty awful to consider that exposure to Covid is an acceptable add-on to the punishment of being in prison personally) I read that when making the recommendations about how to do the under 50s recently they'd also tweaked the rules slightly to give a bit more discretion to local health teams, which could allow them to go in and vaccinate an entire prison population at once if they wanted to.

@Firefliess

Surely they could vaccinate prisons on the grounds of protecting prison staff, if it's not politically acceptable to prioritise prisoners themselves? (though I think it's pretty awful to consider that exposure to Covid is an acceptable add-on to the punishment of being in prison personally) I read that when making the recommendations about how to do the under 50s recently they'd also tweaked the rules slightly to give a bit more discretion to local health teams, which could allow them to go in and vaccinate an entire prison population at once if they wanted to.

Vaccinate any that haven’t had covid in the last 6 months. All guards etc.

Then wait 2 months. Vaccinate any new inmates. That come in during that time.

Pretty sure you’d have zero covid in the prison system in no time.

Then give the ones who haven’t had vaccine, last.

They won’t do it though as this experiment would prove that this was the correct way forward.

I get why they are doing it as they are, because it’s easiest and therefore faster.

But the best way is to vaccinate based on age to 50/vulnerability, then exposure and on whether you’ve had covid recently. It’s just much harder. If only they had a year to plan for a mass vaccination roll out.

I think it's pretty awful to consider that exposure to Covid is an acceptable add-on to the punishment of being in prison personally
Of course, but there are also young adults in care facilities who haven't been vaccinated yet as they're group 6, so prioritising prisoners above those people who have equal exposure risk but may have other vulnerabilities doesn't feel fair either.

@Doomsday If you have, say 5% of older people not vaccinated and another 10% or so for whom the vaccine hasn't worked well (evidence suggests higher than this in the very old) then allowing the virus to rip through the young would put a lot of older people in hospital, as well as creating the ideal conditions for vaccine resistant mutations to occur. It also looks to me as if it's entirely possible to get the over 18s done by June - which is why I suspect this is the plan.

More very promising figures today. In terms of specimen dates in England.

Saturday 27th

622 cases added. First day of reporting, however that is 40% lower than the equivalent last week.

Friday 26th

Second day of reporting 3430 cases added taking two day total to 4513. 29% lower than the equivalent position last week.

Thursday 25th

Third day of reporting 839 cases added taking total to 6330. 31% lower than equivalent last week.

Wednesday 24th

Fourth date of reporting 144 cases added taking total to 7180. 27% lower than equivalent last week.

Tuesday and Monday

Tuesday just 27 more cases added, total 8151. 24% lower than equivalent last week. Monday just 10 more cases, total remains below 10,000, and a week on week fall of 20%.

7 day average

Based on a four day lag just over 8250.

current week from Monday

36731 cases added so far by spec date, equivalent this time last week was 49746, so a 26% decline so far.

[quote Firefliess]@Doomsday If you have, say 5% of older people not vaccinated and another 10% or so for whom the vaccine hasn't worked well (evidence suggests higher than this in the very old) then allowing the virus to rip through the young would put a lot of older people in hospital, as well as creating the ideal conditions for vaccine resistant mutations to occur. It also looks to me as if it's entirely possible to get the over 18s done by June - which is why I suspect this is the plan.[/quote]
I’d agree if it was September onwards.

What evidence was there that it ripped through the population from June, July, and August last year?

Obviously I’m not advising this if the cases are 10-20k+ (with hopefully more testing per day). I just don’t think they will be mid summer.

And trust me, these kids aren’t going to be playing hopskotch all summer.

You might as well profit from their drinking.

Hello there! Have followed these threads off and on all the way through.

Do people here believe that we are coming out of the other side of this and could have a relatively normal life permanently?

You all seem to know the data / your stuff.

@Doomsday We didn't open nightclubs last summer, nor festivals or parties of more than 6 people, and nor did we have the new variant spreading. If you look at the timing of when other countries had waves of infections it's clear that the season isn't that much of a factor - it won't magically not spread just because it's summer.

But I do agree with you that it would be very hard indeed to stop youngsters partying in private houses even if clubs were closed. Which is another reason why I think that they are privately confident of getting the vaccine rolled out by early June.

@bridetobeornottobe

Hello there! Have followed these threads off and on all the way through.

Do people here believe that we are coming out of the other side of this and could have a relatively normal life permanently?

You all seem to know the data / your stuff.

I don’t want to influence, but here are some facts:

Since Wave 2 peak (Autumn peak was never brought under control) in January, the number of people in hospital with covid in England has fallen 67% (20th January to 27th February). 38 days. Took 47 days last year to drop from peak (12th April) to 67% less (29th May). In a lockdown that was stricter, better observed, and in better weather.

That’s all I need to know.

As for new variants, who can say.

@Doomsdayiscoming that sounds promising! 🤞🏻thank you

No council in England with a rate now above 300 per 100,000

Rate 200 to 300

10 councils, 3 showing an increase compared to prior 7 days

Rate 150 to 199

43 councils, 5 showing upward movement

Rate 100 to 149

81 councils, 15 showing upward movement

Rate 50 to 99

127 councils, 12 showing upward movement

Rate 20 to 50

50 councils, 11 showing upward movement

rate below 20

4 councils, all in Devon, 1 showing upward movement.

the number of people in hospital with covid in England has fallen 67% (20th January to 27th February). 38 days. Took 47 days last year to drop from peak (12th April) to 67% less (29th May). In a lockdown that was stricter, better observed, and in better weather

BUT, we do know that the hospitalisations continued for so long because of an utter failure to protect care homes, so there continued to be lots of infection of people who would likely to be hospitalised long after lockdown, the change may not be due to vaccination or anything else but simply the woeful protection of the vulnerable before.

I do agree with the sentiment that you do not need to vaccinate healthy 18-25 year olds to open night clubs of course, and don't think it's likely necessary, but I'm not quite so dogmatic that vaccines have already turned the corner you're implying!

Well here's some variant news, of a second Brazilian variant which is, according to this, more worrying than the first:

https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/28/brazilian-variant-which-could-be-less-effective-to-vaccines-found-in-uk-14160906/?ito=facebook%7Csocial%7Cmetroukfacebook&fbclid=IwAR17ziEgiAkOQp81OoMWocp0PSoBH09nhYMiZdtt_6krTd5EQLLtjnDeIAw

@bridetobeornottobe

Hello there! Have followed these threads off and on all the way through.

Do people here believe that we are coming out of the other side of this and could have a relatively normal life permanently?

You all seem to know the data / your stuff.

Assuming you're only talking about the UK, I think we have seen the worst for both cases and deaths already. I think though that there will be further bumps along the way before end of May and then again in August/September while waiting for the new variant vaccines projected for autumn. I also think there is a very high risk of restrictions on foreign travel and large crowded events continuing for another 2 years, and that those companies who've operated successfully from home will not ever quite go back full-time.

If you're talking about the wider world, then it depends on the country; some have further large difficulties ahead.

JanFebAnyMonth

It is the Brazilian variant everyone has been talking about for a while (P.1), it is just that it has now been confirmed to be in U.K.

Previously, the other Brazilian variant which was less concerning was found here.

3 confirmed in Scotland, 3 confirmed in England (2 Gloucestershire, 1 unknown location!?!?).

Household of Gloucestershire couple have positive covid tests and awaiting sequencing....

Thanks @everythingthelighttouches. I hadn't realised there were two Brazil variants being discussed!

www.gov.uk/government/news/confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-variants-identified-in-uk

I would be very interested to know about case rates in the last week in the following postcodes

The postcodes are BS32 0, BS32 8, BS32 9, BS34 5 and BS34 6.

As they are now surge testing because of the P.1 variant first identified in Brazil.

BS32 is Almondsbury and Bradley Stoke postcodes. Little bit north of Bristol. On the cases map scroll slowly up it's immediately north of Patchway:
Almondsbury, Pilning & Severn Beach - 7 cases in the last 7 days, down 2, 78.4 per 100,000.
Bradley Stoke Central - 6 cases in the last 7 days, down 4, 53.2 per 100,000.
Much higher cases in other parts of Bristol including Patchway. Bear in mind though that MSOA figures are provided 5 days late so won't include very recent cases, it's a shame they didn't stick with 3 days as testing is pretty much always complete in 3 days now. Daily cases by specimen date I'll need to find the council first.

It's not great, but Kent variant has mutated with E484K a few times too, we have to expect this kind of follow-up many more times over coming months. As long as there's good focus on E484K cases it'll be fine. I'd guess there will be a little rash of extra cases in the area from surge testing, maybe a few little patches of Brazil variant from these various people. It should be possible to stamp it out by the same process as the SA variant though, so personally I'm not ready to worry about this one.

Sorry, above is just BS32. BS34 5 & 6:
Patchway 15 cases, down 17, 106.6 per 100,000.
Little Stoke is in Stoke Gifford, 10, up 6, 131.6 per 100,000.

Deaths 104
Cases 5455
Vaccinations 20,275,451 first dose and 815,816 second.