Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Firefliess - there's a lot more data on the weekly report, the daily numbers are just quick. Daily numbers I think have an occasional duplication, but transfers are rare. I noticed it early last April when my hospital took a bunch of cases from anther hospital; we were in the garden and heard ambulance after ambulance going by, then I saw all the local social media comments. In the stats the admission and ICU figures just leapt on that day, but cases weren't up much until the following week in my area. Sadly the deaths rose too in following weeks. I get really emotional just thinking of it, my Nana taught me to say "wish them well" for a passing ambulance and there were so many that day my little boy (2) started to say it too. It was terrifying.

Thanks sirfred, makes sense :)

I still didn't really see how they can know how many admissions in total they have each day though without automatically knowing which NHS trusts they're from? It's the NHS trusts that are reporting the figures isn't it? So why would you only update the figures by Trust weekly?

I think you're right @MRex that transfers aren't so common except when numbers were really high and hospitals were reaching capacity. My local one definitely took a bunch of patients from another area in January. It doesn't need to be large numbers though to cause challenges in getting the numbers right without double counting.

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I'm not sure, usually if there's a summary it's because of accuracy or time. Maybe there are so many corrections in the more accurate weekly file that it works out about right overall but they don't want it to be too "auditable" by trust? Or they just get an unchecked tally from CCG MI systems?

Are any UK scientists giving a summary of current thinking on variants? Surge testing appears to have found fewer cases than we might have feared. But obviously new ones can appear at any time, and probably will. And there's the interplay with vaccinations: lowering infections means lessening opportunities to mutate, but at this stage can also increase the chances of mutation (apologies can't remember how, now!).
Thanks

A group called the ‘G2P-UK’ National Virology Consortium are studying variants, so worth searching if any of them have given a statement: www.imperial.ac.uk/news/212533/imperial-leads-consortium-study-threats-from/.
There's also the genome lot: www.cogconsortium.uk/news-reports/news/.

I can't see anything new of interest, sorry. I haven't delved into each person's twitter though.

thanks for your thoughts re hospital admissions. I'll assume that regionally and nationally they are correct but as @Firefliess says it is a bit odd isn't it! I mean surely the way the regions get their figures is by getting an update from each trust each day - odd that that figure would need to be audited but the overall figure not!

@MRex

I'm not sure, usually if there's a summary it's because of accuracy or time. Maybe there are so many corrections in the more accurate weekly file that it works out about right overall but they don't want it to be too "auditable" by trust? Or they just get an unchecked tally from CCG MI systems?

That would make sense I guess. The daily figure reported could well be a "net" figure that includes the new admissions reported and deducts the double counted cases that they've identified since the previous day. That's what they do with cases. And yes easier not to release the figures by Trust on this basis as you'd end up with some negative figures reported from some trusts on some days.

The Zoe app seems to be showing cases flatlining at present, not falling any more, which is a bit of a concern

Numbers have been flat for days in Torbay, up a couple one day and down the next. Nextdoor South Hams has been falling but is now so low. think it is about 12 or 13 per 100,000, that falls are going to be slow.

I'm a bit worried about Torbay, it has been so busy this week. On the seafront yesterday it was like a normal summer day with long queues for ice cream/chips etc. I'm hoping as it was all open air that there won't be an issue but it was quite a shock having to struggle to park. I live here (well half in Torbay half in South Hams) so wasn't a visitor, just collecting prescription and then having a walk. There did seem to be visitors, presumably day trippers as where would they be staying but people asking directions/looking lost so not locals. The October half term visitors did precede a big jump in numbers here but of course people were spending time indoors. Fingers crossed for how we go now.

Maybe they were all refugees from Exeter avoiding the WWII bomb that was exploded.

To be fair to Torbay it is heading downwards, albeit with a few bumps in the road.

It appears next to Tower Hamlets if you list upper tier councils alphabetically. The trajectories given their widely different starting points in early January are quite stark.

The final week in the graphs just reflects the rate for cases with spec dates from Monday just gone onwards, so not a full week before anyone gets too excited.

Thanks @MRex

@JanFebAnyMonth - publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/02/05/what-do-we-know-about-the-new-covid-19-variants/

Did everyone see the PHE vaccine report a few days ago? I don't know how I missed it: publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/02/23/covid-19-analysing-first-vaccine-effectiveness-in-the-uk/.

The vaccine groups 5-9 up to 15th April are 17.4m of whom ~5m first doses are done so 12.4m, plus

Re vaccine I suspect they are being conservative.

I can’t help but wonder if there more ambitious estimates have all adults offered a vaccine by 21 June

*their

Purely guessing though!

@BigmouseLittlehouse - Yes, I was speculating similarly though slightly earlier in June, enough to have a spot of immunity. I think the campaign to get more vaccinated will pick up a lot in May.

@boys3

To be fair to Torbay it is heading downwards, albeit with a few bumps in the road.

It appears next to Tower Hamlets if you list upper tier councils alphabetically. The trajectories given their widely different starting points in early January are quite stark.

The final week in the graphs just reflects the rate for cases with spec dates from Monday just gone onwards, so not a full week before anyone gets too excited.

Yes I suppose when you compare them there was such a gap at the beginning and no gap now so Torbay seems so slow, nothing dramatic. If we were reducing like Tower Hamlets we'd be on negative figures by now, wouldn't that be fun.

I like the South Hams heat map, lots of yellow. I'm just going to have to keep going out of the back gate instead of the front door.

6035 cases, 144 deaths, 407,503 first vaccines and 27,322 second.
Very happy with all that!!

Lowest number of cases since September. Brilliant!

I can't see it being feasible to open nightclubs 5 weeks before the adult population is vaccinated. That would presumably mean most 18-25 year olds were not yet jabbed - so nightclubs would be full of unvaccinated people at close quarters. I therefore suspect that if all goes to plan everyone will have had a first dose by early June - the numbers they're getting through each day make this look entirely plausible if you assume a bit of an increase in vaccine supply by April. I think they're just trying to set a target they can beat. Alternatively, if they do take til July to finish vaccinating adults, they'll push back the 21 June date for opening up.

I really hope cases continue to reduce before schools go back as they will Inevitably rise slightly after that.
I’ve not agreed with the government on much at all this pandemic but right now Boris’ timetable does look realistic and fairly sensible. Assuming that the vaccine is assisting matters which it looks like it is thus far.

At least one more big prison outbreak, at The Verne. Pragmatically, it's surely easiest for a couple of doctors to vaccinate everyone at once in each prison. I think they'll have to be prioritised.

Also HMP Wealstun, 3 in Greater Manchester, Rutland whichever that one is... There's loads.