Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data //www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions //www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity //www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths //www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths //www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England //www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data //www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t //www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports //www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats //www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA //www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday //www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports //www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports //www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page //www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries //www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery //www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

[sirfredfredgeorge]

Surely the false positive rate for LFTs isn't just random, but is people who've had Covid some time back showing up as positive when they're actually not contagious?

If that was the case then you'd expect a much higher false positive rate than the testing during October due to the massive increase in people who've had it since, but you're seeing considerably lower.

Also I don't think the fact that the false positive in laboratory conditions would be so much lower, I'd expect it to be higher (because more of the non-lab tests would be too crap to get any amount of sample - like your water case) So I'm not sure that it is the situation that false positive of LFT is related to dead virus (unlike pCr)

[Anna12345678910]

Our secondary school are pulling in all the home school children for testing this week. We are in a very, very low infection area 8/100,000 so not expecting many/any positives. No doubt in some areas it will appear as if spiking numbers because some are picked up that would otherwise get missed.

[lurker101]

Would we not also expect the spike in cases next week from pupil testing to be lower than other populations, because in theory those returning next week (non-key worker kids) are less likely to have many outside contacts? If they’ve been homeschooled etc. by furloughed or wfh parents, they won’t have been expected to be mixing in the way someone working in a factory etc. Will have been. They also will be less likely to have been to grocery stores or providing care for elderly relatives etc. Who also come into contact with carers etc. which would all be contributing to adult case numbers.

[Waxonwaxoff0]

@sirfredfredgeorge

a lot of transmission clearly occurs in workplaces (especially during a lockdown) and if, say 1/5 of your colleagues are vaccinated, that ought to reduce transmission by nearly a fifth

I think it's hard to imagine there are that many lockdown workplaces that didn't already have significant immunity from actual cases though, so it's more like 1/5th of your colleagues vaccinated and 1/3rd recently infected (likely more most places I'd've thought) so it is possibly that even a small number of vaccinated colleagues as in flowerycurtain's example is enough to squash the transmission in those workplaces.

It would be interesting to know how many of the cases in Feb were linked to working out of the home, but we never get that stats and just anecdotes about rule breaking.

In January 20% of staff at my workplace caught Covid - factory. I reckon a high number of cases from this year are people working out of the home.

[herecomesthsun]

If pupils get a positive LFR test, they presumably could do a PCR test to double check whether it in fact appeared to be a true positive.

(Not sure whether that is the process but theoretically that could be done?)

[ceeveebee]

The process for twice weekly testing does say they should get a confirmatory PCR test:

“What twice-weekly testing involves
You will be asked to:

take a test twice a week (every 3 or 4 days apart)
report every result to NHS Test and Trace on the same day you take the test
Report your test result online or by calling 119.

If anyone tests positive or gets coronavirus symptoms, they should tell the school and:

self-isolate immediately
get a PCR test to confirm the result
follow the stay at home guidance for households with possible coronavirus infection
A negative result means the test did not find signs of coronavirus. But this does not guarantee you do not have coronavirus, so you should keep following all coronavirus advice including:

regular handwashing
social distancing
wearing a face covering where recommended”
www.gov.uk/guidance/rapid-lateral-flow-testing-for-households-and-bubbles-of-school-pupils-and-staff

[MRex]

@Firefliess

Surely the false positive rate for LFTs isn't just random, but is people who've had Covid some time back showing up as positive when they're actually not contagious? I mean you wouldn't get 0.2% positive results if you just dabbed water on the test kits would you? So the false positive rate will be lower when the proportion of people who had Covid in the recent past is lower.

I agree this is likely because of the advice not to use them within 90 days. Also the comment about not sticking it very far up your nose.
The only other likely option might be if it mistakes other coronaviruses for covid-19, which would explain why they dropped the PCR test confirmation because we're past common cold season so it would happen very rarely.

[ceeveebee]

@boys3 it really does feel like the dashboard should move to a 4 day or possibly even a 3 day lag period for cases? Would be helpful to be able to see more the localised impact of the drops in reported cases on a more timely basis. I’ve tweeted the team who run the dashboard to see what their thoughts are

[LockdownIsDragging]

What will happen if a pupil has previously had covid, will the LFR show positive even if it is an old infection?

[Firefliess]

@LockdownIsDragging

What will happen if a pupil has previously had covid, will the LFR show positive even if it is an old infection?

If they have had it within the last three months potentially it could. Personally I think I'd be declining the LFTs if my child had had Covid in the last 3 months, as the chances of them recatching it within that timescale are very low indeed.

[sunnyday1976]

Our school say pupils cannot take part in the testing programme if they have tested positive in the last 90 days.

[boys3]

Same for DS3’s school. No test if a positive within the last 90 days.

[boys3]

[quote ceeveebee]@boys3 it really does feel like the dashboard should move to a 4 day or possibly even a 3 day lag period for cases? Would be helpful to be able to see more the localised impact of the drops in reported cases on a more timely basis. I’ve tweeted the team who run the dashboard to see what their thoughts are[/quote]
@ceeveebee I certainly think they need to bring it down to 4 days, and there is an increasing argument for three. The latter is used on some of the very detailed non public dashboards. Which should also provide the answer to sirfred’s query.

[LockdownIsDragging]

My concern is that DS may have had asymptotic covid and be required to self isolate even though no longer symptomatic.

[herecomesthsun]

There's an article here from the BMJ about testing, published last month.www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n208

They are suggesting that if prevalence is low, LFT tests can be checked with PCR tests. I guess false positives would become more of an issue if the number of actual cases became very low.

[Firefliess]

@LockdownIsDragging

My concern is that DS may have had asymptotic covid and be required to self isolate even though no longer symptomatic.

He'd only have to isolate for a day or two though - he'd get a PCR test and if that was negative, go back to school. Chances of having had it asymptomaticly and yet with enough of the virus to trigger a test weeks later are pretty slim. Chances of him picking it up at school over the next few months much higher, so best to get the tests.

[LockdownIsDragging]

More likely he will mix with someone who then tests positive since they are allowing them to mix before testing!

[PurpleWh1teGreen]

Although PCR tests are analysed under laboratory conditions, they are not necessarily taken in ideal settings.

I have had 2; one in the car at a drive through centre and one at home that was sent off in the post. I followed the instructions as closely as possible, but there is still room for error.

[Doomsdayiscoming]

Is it too early to ring the “covid over” klaxon?

3.85% fall in hospital admissions in England on a Sunday (one day behind). Normally Sunday and Monday give odd reductions either very few or even an increase, presumably as patients are admitted but less are discharged over the weekend.

So if you see any kind of fall from 10,663 tomorrow then I think it’s time to ring the klaxon. (At least for the next 6 months)

Caveat: could just be a weird data point due to recording etc.

[Doomsdayiscoming]

@Northernsoulgirl45

Lovely people on this thread can you help please?
I am trying to source data for number of people in a particular hospital with COVID please?
I want to check as my conspiracy theorist friend on SM is claiming there are none in her local hospital. It may be true of course but it seems fishy rather like lots of her posts.
Thank you

Particular hospitals trusts: difficult to see data. It’s way out of date, they are apparently updating on Thursday. Seems deliberate to me but whatever.

I’m no covid denier, but your friend could well be right, or almost right.

My local hospital as of 26th has 17 from a peak in January of 187.
(Source: www.eadt.co.uk/news/health/hospital-coronavirus-case-admissions-numbers-7791320)

so I don’t think it impossible for some hospitals in rural, affluent areas to have almost no covid patients.

[MargaretThursday]

Too early to ring the "covid over" Klaxon.

We're still at a level of end of September, and even with vaccinations things could very quickly move upwards again from this position. In June and July we had about the numbers per week what we're getting per day.
I think it's one of the issues I'm seeing out, that people are hearing the "numbers dropped massively since January", which is true, however the numbers are still pretty big, but people are acting like it's down at the July rates.

I'd say if numbers keep falling when the children are back at school, then we can start to be hopeful.

[Doomsdayiscoming]

@MargaretThursday

Too early to ring the "covid over" Klaxon.

We're still at a level of end of September, and even with vaccinations things could very quickly move upwards again from this position. In June and July we had about the numbers per week what we're getting per day.
I think it's one of the issues I'm seeing out, that people are hearing the "numbers dropped massively since January", which is true, however the numbers are still pretty big, but people are acting like it's down at the July rates.

I'd say if numbers keep falling when the children are back at school, then we can start to be hopeful.

I’m not saying it’s July. 2.5k in hospital then vs 12k-ish now.

But the trend is so strong for hospitalisations. Probably another two weeks, maybe 3 weeks of 25% falls, in England at least. Then we’ll see if the cases increase due to schools, and then a lag before hospitalisations jump, if they jump, but the trend will still be down, just not as quick.

July levels by end of April IMO.

[Quarantino]

@Doomsdayiscoming

Is it too early to ring the “covid over” klaxon?

3.85% fall in hospital admissions in England on a Sunday (one day behind). Normally Sunday and Monday give odd reductions either very few or even an increase, presumably as patients are admitted but less are discharged over the weekend.

So if you see any kind of fall from 10,663 tomorrow then I think it’s time to ring the klaxon. (At least for the next 6 months)

Caveat: could just be a weird data point due to recording etc.

I have to say, I have to keep re-reading your posts because your username leads me to expect the opposite

[Quarantino]

I know there's a huge lag, but 'patients in mechanical ventilation beds' are still at early Jan levels and 'patients in hospital' still has a long way to go. Great if it only goes down, but I think there is still a lot of obstacles (schools etc reopening being the main test initially).

[JanFebAnyMonth]

@LockdownIsDragging

More likely he will mix with someone who then tests positive since they are allowing them to mix before testing!

Schools are not following the guidance if they're allowing students to mix before their first test.....