Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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"overridden by a PCR" that should say!

Thank you

1 in 1000 still means almost 5% of kids will have a false positive by the end of the school year.

@sirfredfredgeorge

1 in 1000 still means almost 5% of kids will have a false positive by the end of the school year.

Indeed. However, after the 1st three in school, they will need to be confirmed by a PCR, so shouldn't be so disruptive.

That's if it lasts past Easter, of course!

@sirfredfredgeorge

1 in 1000 still means almost 5% of kids will have a false positive by the end of the school year.

That's annoying for them, but if it works and keeps Covid out of schools it'll be a lot less disruptive than in some areas prior to Christmas where kids were getting sent home for 10 days at a time multiple times over.

@sirfredfredgeorge

1 in 1000 still means almost 5% of kids will have a false positive by the end of the school year.

I suspect parents will keep quiet about LFTs and get PCRs which will hopefully overrule them. So less worry about false positives generally.

Ah right thank you!
I might be being dim but isn’t the actual number of positives from LFDs a lot lower than 5%?

There were 1,088,040 LFDs reported in England with a test date of 9 March, but only 1,444 positive cases in total for specimen date 9 March (which I assume must be all LFDs as too soon for any PCRs to be reported). Positivity rate of 0.1%

So presumably then false positives must be pretty low?

And so the false negatives are much more concerning, if ONS is saying true prevalence is 0.5%

Sorry I meant “a lot lower than 0.5%” not 5%

However, after the 1st three in school, they will need to be confirmed by a PCR, so shouldn't be so disruptive

I actually think the reverse would be more useful, the prevalence is likely to be at its very lowest now straight after lockdown, so removing people from the screening pool now with a false positive is a silly idea (no testing within 90days of covid right because it's inaccurate?)

@Firefliess I don't see how it changes being sent home - 5% of students is more than 1 per class, so that's still whole classes isolating regularly? Even before you get actual positive tests?

It's mostly the disrepute the whole testing regime itself is being brought under by the atrocious way it's been handled, I think the biggest risk is more people will stop getting tested entirely.

Good points @sirfredfredgeorge

@sirfred If 5% of kids get a false positive at some point over the remainder of the school year, and that's then confirmed false by a PGR test the next day, and close contacts will be sent home for just a day or two. That might mean each child is sent home am average once for one day over the rest of the school year as a result of false positives. (If we assume an average of 20 close contacts per child)

And if the LFTs also catch one genuine positive per 1000 kids per week, and that prevents 2 positives per thousand the next week, etc there's quickly a lot of 10 day isolation periods from contact with genuine positive cases avoided.

Purely anecdata here, but DS's school have now completed round one of LFTs on around 2000 kids and no positives at all...

Patricia did they email to tell you?

I’d be interested to know outcome at D’s’ school.

We were emailed by school to say all pupils tested were negative, but they have emailed us every single time they had a case since September. I know some schools have not been so transparent.

Ours has been excellent too and notified every case - only two last term admittedly. They might still be doing some groups though I’m not sure.

We had one (so far : that was out of 560)

@MarshaBradyo yes, to say thanks to everyone and the boys.

.. and they have told us about every case so far, as has DDs school.

Nice addition to dashboard today! For England only atm, but now has number of cases by test type (specimen date) - which includes positives from PCR, positives by LFD unconfirmed by PCR and positives by LFD confirmed by PCR.

Can already see the bump from "unconfirmed LFTs" - the School Effect, essentially...For example, for this Monday so far (so PCR won't be complete) - 3609 PCR, and 1,195 unconfirmed LFTs. (and 57 confirmed). So of the 4,861 specimen dates from Monday, around 25% are non-confirmed LFTs.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

@PatriciaHolm
Ah yes that is interesting just had a look at that. Hopefully the number of 'unconfirmed Lfts' will go down once the school testing is finished. I suspect those who get a positive lft will keep quiet about it and seek a PCR.

[quote Frazzled2207]@PatriciaHolm
Ah yes that is interesting just had a look at that. Hopefully the number of 'unconfirmed Lfts' will go down once the school testing is finished. I suspect those who get a positive lft will keep quiet about it and seek a PCR.[/quote]
Yes - given home LFTs need to be confirmed, I suspect it will be a 10 day or so bump, before more move into "LFT confirmed by PCR".

It's interesting; depending on your view of false positives and asymptomatic spread, it could be viewed as saying - great, we've identified a bunch of infections that we would otherwise have missed!; or - terrible, we've inflated the stats by 25% and sent thousands of kids home to isolate for nothing.

Twitter will be divided on the issue, I suspect ;-)

indeed. Thinking about it differently, if cases of PCRs keep going down, surely that's a good thing regardless of the mess with LFDs.

I've just done another LFT myself and I have to say I really don't have much confidence at all that I'm getting enough 'sample' to make it accurate. The only thing that reassures me is that when I've had to swab my kids at an official test site, in all incidences we got a negative rather than invalid result.

That's really good that they're separating out the PCR tests and LFTs. Regardless of whether LFTs are true or false, it means to can look at the rates of PCR positives and know that that's showing a like for like trend - or mostly people with symptoms who get tested for that reason. It'll help with seeing whether cases start rising with schools open, or whether we just start picking up more cases.

I do wonder if the dashboard keep tabs on this thread as the welcome addition in tests has been suggested on here - by me and others.

Talking of additions the NHS weekly Announced vaccinations latest version out today now includes a breakdown at UTLA level for

• vaccinations of residents and staff in older adult care homes, and,

• vaccinations of social care staff

The breakdown of vaccinations in general and by age bands by LTLAs and MSOAs was added last week. In today’s release the numbers for the 60 to 64 group is now shown.

6753 new/181 deaths

Must be a jump from all the LFTs.