Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Frazzled2207

does anyone know what's going on on the Isle of Man? All very worrying. I read that 40% of adults already vaccinated and basically the outbreak took off in schools, where virtually everyone was unvaccinated.

Other than being very strict about who they let in and out though I wonder if their 'rules' were perhaps quite lax?

I am worried about continuing school outbreaks here given that it's unlikely the children will be vaccinated for several months. Presumably bubbles and bubble closures could be a 'thing' for several more months to come, though I'd hope that once most adults are vaccinated the chances of cases getting into school in the first place are far less.

They had barely any cases prior (relatively).

A warning for Australia/NZ IMO.

We paid our dues letting it rip through the country Nov/Dec/Jan.

Do care homes rely heavily on LFTs?

The good start to the week continues for hospitalisations in England.

Last week saw 27.5% reduction (Saturday to Saturday).

This week so far: 570 less which is 7.1%. With 4 days to come. If these four days replicate today’s drop (396) it’ll be 396 x4 = 1584 + 570 = 2154 for the week. This will be a 26.8% drop. Hoping for a 30% drop, we’ll see.

Cases and deaths 5,926 / 190

Last Wednesday 6,385 / 315

I don't know about all homes Piggy but the home where I work does both for staff and PCR for residents. Residents are tested monthly and staff have LFT twice a week and PCR weekly. I'm still working from home, have only been in to work once, but this is what I understand.

I'm not sure what the rules are if there is an outbreak, we haven't had one since December.

Our high school have now tested all students with no positives. I am a bit surprised to be honest, this is a decent sized school with around 1400 students. Hopefully this represents a low level of infection in the community?

Thanks ancient. I am glad they are doing PCR on residents but the more we read about LFTs the less I think they should be used in vulnerable settings. I know some care homes had concerns but hadn't kept up with what then happened.

I also read that quite a large % of carehome workers have not taken up the vaccine.

[quote LockdownIsDragging]@Firefliess at least it isn’t an anal swab.[/quote]
I definitely don't want an anal swab but I do remember reading months ago that someone was looking into the possibility of testing stool samples for children rather than swabbing and I am a bit disappointed that seems to have come to nothing - testing a toddler is pretty unpleasant and I can't shake the feeling that I (and I guess most people?) do such a crap job of it that it might be pointless anyway, so would happily take that option instead even if it is a bit gross.

But what I actually came on to post wasn't my wish for poo testing, but this on LFTs, just released by DHSC - they think they have a specificity rate of 99.9%, in which case the whole false positive thing has been massively overblown:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/lateral-flow-device-specificity-in-phase-4-post-marketing-surveillance

I think the main thing for the care home is the PCR every week but the LFT is a useful back up in between tests.

Our staff and residents all had the test. I was listening to Nadhim Zahawi today as he explained the team comes into the home and vaccinates staff and residents, comes back to do any missed but some staff prefer to book their own tests. Not at my home, we were told they would only do residents and staff had to book at the hub.

I can't decide if they deliberately misrepresent what goes on or they just don't know what actually happens in the real world. Because several of our staff don't drive and the hub they had to go to is in a different town it would definitely have been easier for staff to get jabs at the home. Fortunately they were all prepared to go to the hub but that meant bus journeys for some which was a needless risk.

Apart from all that we have zero cases in Torbay and South Hams today so I can happily go out of the back gate into the South Hams or use the front door and go into Torbay and feel equally safe.

I caught something on the lunchtime news about the care home outbreak in East Devon, didn't hear it all but I did hear that not everyone at the home had received the vaccinations. They didn't say if that was staff or residents. I will listen later to see if they say anything else.

Specimen Dates for cases in England.

4863 cases added in England with 89.7% having a spec date of yesterday or Monday. 89.7% is comfortably the highest first two days percentage ever.

Tuesday 9th

1444 cases added as compared with equivalent last week of 1133, so up 27%. Day one of reporting applies and things are different this week with the LFD test volumes.

Monday 8th

2919 cases added today as compared with 3430 on day two last week. Total after two days 4861, still 5% lower than equivalent last week, and likely this week that a higher proportion of Monday’s positive cases have already been reported through. Tomorrow will confirm if that is really the case.

Given those first two days account for 90% of cases added Sunday saw another 294 cases, Saturday 131 and Friday 56. Both weekend days just over 10% lower than equivalent last week, whilst Friday is 18% lower.

I meant all our staff and residents had the vaccination.

Don't worry! I inferred. Glad to hear it.

I assume any positives from schools are attributed to the students home msoa rather than the schools?

So testing is up by nearly 60%, presumably with all the LFTs but cases still dropping by 20%. That's good, right?

@JamesAnderson
I would expect so. And these positives coming up from schools will drive the numbers up somewhat even if false positives sadly.

[quote Hardbackwriter]But what I actually came on to post wasn't my wish for poo testing, but this on LFTs, just released by DHSC - they think they have a specificity rate of 99.9%, in which case the whole false positive thing has been massively overblown:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/lateral-flow-device-specificity-in-phase-4-post-marketing-surveillance[/quote]
99.9% is one in a thousand isn't it but I still think they must happen less often than that (which would suggest one or two per high school round of testing)
I know that of 4 high schools in my town, with I'm guessing around 6/7,000 tested, not one positive at all was recorded through the testing rounds.

@JamesAnderson
Maybe, maybe not. Just had a message from a friend whose school did their first tests last week with all negatives, this week her dd is having to isolate as the second test has brought up "at least two positives" in their form. (secondary)
So that could be 2 false positives.
2 children getting it independently
1 false negative last week, passed it to 2 or more dc who have tested positive.

@Frazzled2207 they actually say it could be as good as 99.97%, and that that was the best fit to their data (but presumably they weren't confident enough to put it as the headline figure!) which would be 3 in 10,000.

I'm normally the person searching for the silver lining and desperate to accept good news on this thread, but I am a bit worried that the false positive thing has not only been overplayed but has made everyone forget about the high risk of false negatives. I agree with @bathsh3ba that it looks good that tests are up yet cases down but I can't shake the niggling worry that LFTs are replacing PCRs - I know they shouldn't be, but I think they might be in practice - and so that if so that's making cases look lower than they should look.

@Hardbackwriter
Indeed. False negatives should be far more of a worry.

This might be a dumb question so I apologise in advance, but when we say that 1 in a 1000 LFDs is a false positive, is that 1 in every 1,000 tests conducted, or 1 in every 1,000 of the positive results?

So now we can get back to talking about the false negative rate of LFTs....

[quote MargaretThursday]@JamesAnderson
Maybe, maybe not. Just had a message from a friend whose school did their first tests last week with all negatives, this week her dd is having to isolate as the second test has brought up "at least two positives" in their form. (secondary)
So that could be 2 false positives.
2 children getting it independently
1 false negative last week, passed it to 2 or more dc who have tested positive.[/quote]
2 positives in the same form would suggest genuine positives to me - assuming false positives are more random, it seems unlikely you'd get two in the one form when we're hearing of entire schools of 1000+ pupils where they have found no positives at all. Whereas kids in the same class are not unlikely to share germs.

The trouble with using PCRs for any kind of routine screening is that they take a day or two to come back. So anyone who's positive and works or goes to school will have been going round infecting people in that time. They work for people with symptoms because we expect them to stay at home isolating while waiting for their results. You obviously can't do that with routine screening

@ceeveebee

This might be a dumb question so I apologise in advance, but when we say that 1 in a 1000 LFDs is a false positive, is that 1 in every 1,000 tests conducted, or 1 in every 1,000 of the positive results?

1 in every 1,000 conducted that should be negative, if you see what I mean!

So we have conducted some 2.5m LFTs in England over the past couple of days; With a real incidence of positives of around 0.5% (ONS last week so probably lower now) some 99.5% should be negative; which if 1/1000 were false positive, would suggest some 2,488 false positives. (2.5m 0.995 0.001).

We would also expect some 12,500 real positives (2.5m * 0.5%). The concern here is the false negative rate; if it is, say, 5%, that's 625 people who are positive but get given a negative answer.

The 5% may be too low, that's the problem -we really don't know how effective the LFTs are, just that they are ineffective enough especially in a household setting that they can be overridden by an LFT. If it's just 5% I'd suggest it's not too much of a problem, especially as these are infections that are likely to have a low viral load.