Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@boys3

1.362 million LFD tests yesterday, can’t help feeling that seems a bit low, although the first secondary/ sixth form test could well be spread over the first few days of this week

My GSs school did the first tests last week on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday based on the year group. This week the tests are Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday I think. Well his is Wednesday and he was Thursday last week.

NHS Covid online symptom checked may delay treatment (missing silent hypoxia, for example):

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56323915

I think you may have lost just about 1 million DC there @PatriciaHolm - granted a tempting proposition

I take your point and those made by others though.

I was coming more from the point of 4.4m secondary / sixth form age kids, 0.4m or so teaching and support staff, and perhaps 17m parents (including primary). Take up will of course vary between those groups - likely two fairly highs and the third someway adrift, assuming that final group are even aware. Hence the rationale behind my idle speculation

Did we ever get to the bottom of Sidbury, Offwell and Beer highest rate of any MSOA at the moment. The next two are certainly prison related in Leeds and Rushcliffe. In the context of MSOA overall populations just 5 now with a rate over 500 per 100,000; and 2238 (33%) with a suppressed figure.

The other thing with SOB is that for five of the seven previous weeks it has been in the suppressed figure category.

@boys3

The other thing with SOB is that for five of the seven previous weeks it has been in the suppressed figure category.

Local news reports suggest it’s an outbreak in a care home

On SOB:

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/covid-cases-spike-among-over-5086121

A care home outbreak in the area the most likely explanation for the rise.

A spokesman for Public Health Devon said: “There is currently a rise in new cases in the Sidbury, Offwell and Beer area of East Devon, and the majority of them are linked to a single setting.

"We and Public Health England are working closely with that setting to ensure that all reasonable measures are in place and appropriate action is taken to ensure everyone’s ongoing safety, and to prevent spread of infections. Controls are in place and there is no current evidence of wider community spread.”

Thanks for the SOB info!

And another link:

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/large-covid-outbreak-death-confirmed-5091601

An extensive Covid-19 outbreak has been confirmed at an East Devon care home where residents and staff had already received their first vaccination.

It is alleged there were as many as 33 positive coronavirus cases in the space of three days recorded at Holmesley Care Home in Fortescue Road, Sidmouth.

Five residents are thought to have been admitted to hospital, and one of those sadly passed away yesterday.

The care home, which was reported to have had 42 residents living there in September 2020, has not confirmed how many Covid cases there have been, but has said one resident has died.

Residents had reportedly been due their second vaccination this weekend.

So presumably they had their first dose in December if second dose is due (although did any care jones have jabs that early?).

If so, the high number of cases, including 'five in hosp and one sadly died' is a very worrying. Unless take-up was low??

Sorry not meaning to sound callous, each individual case will of course be worrying to those affected.

That is really sad news from SOB. Hopefully the local PH team will get to the bottom of what happened. Another hope is that all those cases will have fast tracked, if that is possible, genome sequencing to confirm the variant responsible. Taking a more optimistic view although 33 cases - unclear if that is a mix of both staff and residents - 28 , or 85%, not hospitalised, although presumably that number could still change.

@Boys3 I was coming more from the point of 4.4m secondary / sixth form age kids, 0.4m or so teaching and support staff, and perhaps 17m parents (including primary).

I don't think parents are doing tests this week? I think that's from next week? But I did forget about 6th formers!

Be interesting to see what overall permission rates are tbh. The news over the last few days definitely seems to have galvenised some to refuse, at least for the in-school tests.

And that is concerning about SOB - although i do note the "alleged" in the reports. Whilst the care home obviously does have an issue, I do hope it's not being scapegoated.

Parents can test this week but it's not that widely publicised yet. Some schools have informed parents, some haven't and it's not been very widely discussed in the media.

@boys3

That is really sad news from SOB. Hopefully the local PH team will get to the bottom of what happened. Another hope is that all those cases will have fast tracked, if that is possible, genome sequencing to confirm the variant responsible. Taking a more optimistic view although 33 cases - unclear if that is a mix of both staff and residents - 28 , or 85%, not hospitalised, although presumably that number could still change.

I think the 33 figure is from the MSOA, so most likely residents, unless the staff are very local. We know the jabs aren't 100%, but the figures do suggest that most of the residents tested positive (unless the outbreak extends to some neighbouring housing?). That's concerning as it may be that very old immune systems are not reacting as well too the vaccines as younger people in trials did. Very sad for that care home and very worrying for other care homes too which must be wondering whether it'll ever be safe to allow visitors, etc. 5 out of 33 in hospital and one died (so far) may be a bit less than we were seeing in some care home outbreaks pre-vaccine, but it's not something you could easily just come to accept like a flu outbreak really is it?

@JanFebAnyMonth

Parents can test this week but it's not that widely publicised yet. Some schools have informed parents, some haven't and it's not been very widely discussed in the media.

We've been informed by both DSS's school and DD's college and have tested at home today. It's not much fun with swabs that go up both mouth and nose. Wish they'd hurry up with these saliva tests! I think you're right that they'll probably promote it more from next week when they're hoping to start secondary aged kids themselves testing at home.

3% death, 15% hospitalisation is much lower than we've seen for that age group and care homes in general. We also don't know if they were all vaccinated. They would be an interesting study for PHE, I wonder if Sage and/or MHRA will be getting a report on all post-vax outbreaks.

@Firefliess at least it isn’t an anal swab.

[quote LockdownIsDragging]@Firefliess at least it isn’t an anal swab.[/quote]
That would make the walk-through testing centres interesting!

does anyone know what's going on on the Isle of Man? All very worrying. I read that 40% of adults already vaccinated and basically the outbreak took off in schools, where virtually everyone was unvaccinated.

Other than being very strict about who they let in and out though I wonder if their 'rules' were perhaps quite lax?

I am worried about continuing school outbreaks here given that it's unlikely the children will be vaccinated for several months. Presumably bubbles and bubble closures could be a 'thing' for several more months to come, though I'd hope that once most adults are vaccinated the chances of cases getting into school in the first place are far less.

@Frazzled2207 they reopened businesses on 1 Feb whilst also removing social distancing and mask requirements. So it seems other than entry requirements there are no rules

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/01/isle-man-returns-normal-face-masks-social-distancing-ditched/amp/

thanks for that. can't read the article but I suppose that is reassuring in a way (though very bad if you live there and/or are ill). But then again still worrying given what we're supposedly doing on June 21st! Hopefully things will be much further along by then with vaccination though, which will make all the difference.

@Frazzled2207 I have family there so have followed it all closely! They lived normally from June until January with no restrictions other than borders, had a firebreak in January after cases in the community, then returned completely to normal again. The current outbreak is thought to originate from a member of Steam Packet crew, and they have more cases now than last March, mainly in under 18s.

They have less people than us with a first vaccine dose, they were using the 3 week gap (though I think this may have changed for AZ now) so focussed on second doses and saving stocks for people who had had their first. I think they are still on the 70+ and starting to invite 65+, though they are ramping up this week.

@Eccle80
thanks. Let's hope they get it under control quite quickly.

Yes hopefully they will, the last I saw schools had been closed completely and there were a lot of people in isolation, so hopefully the measures will control it and bring numbers back down. With hindsight they should probably have kept masks and some restrictions after the January lockdown, some of the cases had been a packed pub just before.