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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

999 replies

boys3 · 27/02/2021 17:45

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
22
sirfredfredgeorge · 08/03/2021 21:34

I want to know how many + test does our school and the 5 others within walking distance have for example

'cos that's too easy to de-anonymise individuals.

The rate is 0.1% positivity not 1% and I wonder what it would be if the LFT false positivity rate wasn't 0.4%... Whilst it seems possibly useful as a screening test, neither of the accuracies are good enough for how it's being used, in both directions.

MRex · 08/03/2021 21:44

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@boys3
That is certainly a possibility. The 668,000 odd LFTs on Friday 5th generated just over 700 positives.
This gives us around 1% positivity rate among kids.
I wonder what number it would be if the lft's accuracy rate would not be around 50%?

And also, at this point in time, IMHO, cluster analysis would be beneficial.
If the 700 + cases are spread across 700 schools, than it's a very diff picture than if there are clusters of 10-30 kids in one school, or if there are msoa/small regional clusters forming.
Again, all data is there, it should be pretty easy to do.

And, btw, I really don't understand why public health related data is so secret. I want to know how many + test does our school and the 5 others within walking distance have for example.[/quote]
If accuracy is 50%, then it puts positivity at 0.2%. You can look at MSOA level data on the cases map to see how many are in your local area; it doesn't matter who the cases are for risk assessment, because you assume not every case will be found. Those who have been found need to isolate, so they are suddenly least risk to you.

I think a rushed test of everyone is a good way of finding the most infectious before opening up schools. I wish they were getting PCR confirmation to verify the number of true false positives is vanishingly small (if it is), so then people can get back to messaging around false negatives.

sirfredfredgeorge · 08/03/2021 21:57

If accuracy is 50%, then it puts positivity at 0.2%

If accuracy is 50% and false positivity is 0% then positivity is at 0.2%

There is no evidence that false positivity is 0%, the problem is that the evidence for the false positivity implies that the majority of those 0.1% of cases are false positives.

Best case in lab setting was 0.06% are false positives, which means 0.04% are real positives which at 50% would give 0.08% positive, although that same validation says 76.% sensitivity so only 0.06%.

It is very possible that the sensitivity is even lower than 50%, in some ways it needs to be to match the ONS / REACT etc. data - unless we believe that those doing the LFTs are less likely to be positive than the general population.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/03/2021 22:17

@sirfredfredgeorge

I want to know how many + test does our school and the 5 others within walking distance have for example

'cos that's too easy to de-anonymise individuals.

The rate is 0.1% positivity not 1% and I wonder what it would be if the LFT false positivity rate wasn't 0.4%... Whilst it seems possibly useful as a screening test, neither of the accuracies are good enough for how it's being used, in both directions.

In a school of 1300 kids from all over london, how would you de-anonymize the x positives? Even on a year group level there are 130-150 kids.

I am more "worried" about the false negatives than the false positives.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/03/2021 22:26

@MRex
I thought that the cases would be reported to their home address msoa?*
Meaning that I have no idea about:

  • how many positives in school
  • not for accurate risk assessment, but to help in the gut feeling ... there is a diff between having 40 kids test + with a very flawed lft in the area they mingle in (go into shops, take the buses, etc) or having just 1 or 2 + cases. Even if you extrapolate for the false negatives and simply double the number you at least get an idea. Now you have no clue on what is happening.

*if this is not true then the rest is meaningless of course.

and just for context: in our area where we shop, take walks, etc the majority of foot traffic is from the 3 priv schools that go through to 18 and the 2 local small primaries. When these were closed you could go for a walk without meeting anyone for 30-40 mins..... :)

Today was manic both on the pavement and the roads.
We moved a month ago. So far we have met 2 neighbours from the 56 apartments. And we go down for a smoke many times a day, so are more active than the rest of the residents probably.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/03/2021 22:27

what I was trying to say is that in our specific area the school kids are of huge impact, probably way more than in any normal naighbourhood.

JanFebAnyMonth · 08/03/2021 23:04

Yes, good to remember that positive LFTs are going to be tied to home MSOA, not the school's. For a village primary, they'll largely overlap. City secondary, not at all/ very little.

QuidditchQueen · 09/03/2021 04:20

@Frazzled2207 @Firefliess
Your very sensible plan is already vindicated by my experience in school today.

We have had a false positive come back from school LTF testing last week. The child then got a PCR which was negative. However the child is being required to isolate regardless of the negative PCR!
This cause massive problems and not only for the child who is devastated to be at home - one of the parents is a barrister with court commitments, so the knock-on impact for this unnecessary isolation is immense.
Definitely would not now report an asymptomatic positive home LTF until/unless a PCR also confirms that.

Firefliess · 09/03/2021 07:35

@Quiddichqueen - well I've just discovered the other problem with the government's dogmatic approach. Turns out of the 1100 kids tested at DSS's school yesterday (all negative) DSS was not one of them His mum selfishly told him not to get tested because she is booked in for hear jab this week and didn't want to risk a false negative causing her have to isolate and cancel it. DSS is over 16 so could technically consent to be tested himself, but couldn't be arsed it would appear. I'm cross because twice weekly testing would reduce the risks to us involved in him traveling between our home and his mum's - as well as being the socially responsible right thing to do to support schools opening safely - and have told him to get the next test on Thursday - if he doesn't I'll hand him one when he walks in the door on Friday! But this most likely wouldn't have happened if the rules allowed a confirmatory PCR test. His mum would only have been facing the risk of a day or two's isolation in the event of a false negative.

Firefliess · 09/03/2021 07:56

Meanwhile, back to statistics. - article here showing that the Kent strain is 64% more fatal for cases detected in the community www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.09.21250937v3

It's one reason why the fall in the death rate resulting from vaccination of the elderly hasn't been sharper I guess.

Frazzled2207 · 09/03/2021 08:13

@QuidditchQueen

As I now understand it after various contradictions yesterday the DFE have now clarified that any HOME positive lft can be overridden by a negative pcr. But the result of a SCHOOL lft stands and can’t be overruled. Apparently because of a higher chance of it being accurate.

MRex · 09/03/2021 08:20

64% is really extreme! I think this really shows that viral load (higher with Kent) is significant, has any research backed that up yet? (I can't find any but perhaps it's too hard to measure.)

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/03/2021 08:28

64% is really extreme! I think this really shows that viral load (higher with Kent) is significant, has any research backed that up yet? (I can't find any but perhaps it's too hard to measure.)

I thought it was confirmed that no higher viral load just longer infectious period and that was why france returned to 10 days from 7? But I can't immediately see the research I remember.

MRex · 09/03/2021 08:38

Definitely higher viral load: academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiab082/6134354.

boys3 · 09/03/2021 16:08

1.362 million LFD tests yesterday, can’t help feeling that seems a bit low, although the first secondary/ sixth form test could well be spread over the first few days of this week

OP posts:
boys3 · 09/03/2021 16:09

5766 cases, 231 deaths

OP posts:
Bordois · 09/03/2021 16:17

5766 postives from over 1.5m tests is pretty good, right?

AlecTrevelyan006 · 09/03/2021 16:24

Cases and deaths 5,766 / 231 compared to 6,391 / 343 last Tuesday

Last 7 days
Cases 40,600 -24.5%
Deaths 1,329 -33.2%
Hospital admissions 5,154 -29.8%
Tests 6,273,703 +45.6%

boys3 · 09/03/2021 16:28

specimen dates for cases added in England today.

First thing to say 243 cases added with a spec date before 1st Feb, with 186 of these dating between 22 Dec and 14 Jan.

Monday 8th

First day of reporting and first day proper of schools back and more full on LFD testing getting underway.

1942 cases added, 12% higher than the equivalent last week. Almost 800,00 more LFD tests than equivalent last week.

Sunday 7th

2092 cases added, taking total on second day of reporting to 3120, 9% lower than equivalent last week.

Saturday 6th

Third day of reporting 401 cases added, total 3480, also 9% lower than equivalent last week.

Friday 5th

Fourth day of reporting 123 cases added - eg barely half the older spec dates highlighted at the start of this post- total 4565, 18.5% lower than equivalent last week.

In total 32736 added so far for W/c 1st as compared with 44894 for the same point the week before. Week commencing 14 Sep added 31416 cases.

OP posts:
PatriciaHolm · 09/03/2021 16:35

@boys3

1.362 million LFD tests yesterday, can’t help feeling that seems a bit low, although the first secondary/ sixth form test could well be spread over the first few days of this week
hmm - I know both of my children's schools are spreading the first test over the next 4 days (large schools though) so on very rough maths that's not too bad - there are approx. 3.5m secondary school kids, so 3.5/4 = 875k, ; 3.5/3 = 1.16k.

We were running about 500k a day before, so that's an uplift yesterday of around 830k; not too far off assuming most schools will be staggering over a few days? And takeup won't be 100%.

MargaretThursday · 09/03/2021 16:37

@boys3

1.362 million LFD tests yesterday, can’t help feeling that seems a bit low, although the first secondary/ sixth form test could well be spread over the first few days of this week
Larger secondaries round here are spreading the tests out over 3-5 days. You can't get 2k children through the door safely quickly...
PatriciaHolm · 09/03/2021 16:41

@Bordois

5766 postives from over 1.5m tests is pretty good, right?
Not really comparing apples with apples there -the test results will mostly be from tests conducted before yesterday. The important figure really is PCR positivity rate, which is steadily declining - latest is 2.8% for 7 day rate, down from 4.2% a week before.

Interestingly, the World Health Organization recommended in May that the percent positive remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening....we've been there for at least 12 days.

Doomsdayiscoming · 09/03/2021 16:51

Decent start to the week for patients in hospital. Saturday and Sunday resulted in a net reduction in England (which doesn’t always happen), similar to last week. Think we can expect another 25-30% fall in England. This would take us to about 5000 to 6000 patients.

Think questions will be asked when this gets lower than 2-3k in England. Which could be before 12th April.

Bordois · 09/03/2021 16:55

Are there any stats yet showing the vaccination status of people admitted to hospital for covid related issues?

Eccle80 · 09/03/2021 16:59

@boys3

1.362 million LFD tests yesterday, can’t help feeling that seems a bit low, although the first secondary/ sixth form test could well be spread over the first few days of this week
My eldest’s school did theirs wednesday to friday last week, as did some other schools. Others I have heard of are doing them over the course of this week.