Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I can well believe that secondary aged kids may fail to use a test properly and so return false negatives. I'm struggling to see how they'd manage to use the kits so poorly that they produced false positives - how would they manage to do that??

Because we don't know what causes the false positives, the PHE validation study clearly showed a much higher rate of false positives outside of "lab" testing.

Specimen dates for cases in England.

Sunday 7th

1028 on first day of reporting, that is actually an increase of 8% as compared with the equivalent last week. Caveats on day 1 reporting apply and worth noting that 26% of the cases reported today relate to yesterday’s spec date, the equivalent last week was 20%. So quite possibly results coming through more quickly, tomorrow will give a better steer on that.

Saturday 6th

Second day of reporting 2161 cases added taking total to 3079, currently 5% lower than equivalent last week.

Friday 5th

Third day of reporting 577 cases added, taking total to 4442, 17% lower than equivalent last week.

The first three spec dates account for 96.5% of the cases added today.

Thursday 4th

Fourth day of reporting 108 further cases added to take total to 4768, 27% lower than equivalent last week.

rest of W/c 1st March

39 more cases added leaving as compared with equivalent last week Wednesday 30% lower, Tuesday 30% lower and Monday 40% lower.

For the week in total 30034 cases so far compared with 41441 at this point the week before.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I can well believe that secondary aged kids may fail to use a test properly and so return false negatives. I'm struggling to see how they'd manage to use the kits so poorly that they produced false positives - how would they manage to do that??

Because we don't know what causes the false positives, the PHE validation study clearly showed a much higher rate of false positives outside of "lab" testing.

I suppose you're right, if it was contamination or something. We really need to know though!

There is the obvious advantage of a PCR test as well that it allows genome testing. Maybe not a big deal right now for schoolkids, but generally useful.

US CDC have revised their guidelines for vaccinated individuals:

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

Fully vaccinated people can:

- Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing
- Visit with unvaccinated people from a single household who are at low risk for severe COVID-19 disease indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing
- Refrain from quarantine and testing following a known exposure if asymptomatic.

Huge number of LFDs yesterday for a Sunday (608k in England), presumably schools and/or parents (most of my primary school ‘mum’ friends tested yesterday in preparation for return today). Could explain the increase in day -1 cases?

wintertravel1980 the "can" is a bit dubious there isn't it, as reading it in a UK context of what groups can do makes it seem that vaccinated people would get more rights, but their guidance is nothing like PHE's it just provides information about risk.

Specific regions of course say different things beyond that, but the CDC's advice to unvaccinated older people is "use alternatives to onsite dining" and "avoid people without masks". Rather than "do not leave the house other than for essential reasons".

@MRex

There is the obvious advantage of a PCR test as well that it allows genome testing. Maybe not a big deal right now for schoolkids, but generally useful.

I think we're still just doing a sample of all positive tests currently, except in surge testing areas, so guess there's no strong reason at present to encourage PCR testing for that purpose - not until we've built enough capacity (or driven case rates down enough) that we can sequence all positive samples.

@wintertravel @sirfred The US context around what is illegal/not advised in undoubtedly different to ours. But that guidance is interesting. I think that currently when most of us are still waiting for a vaccine it would be hard politically to relax rules for vaccinated people without breeding a lot of resentment among the young - I can't see older vaccinated people being allowed to meet friends in pubs for instance but everyone else being told to stay outdoors. However, once everyone's been offered the vaccine (including children?) it would be more acceptable I'd have thought to have different rules. You could do quite a lot via guidance - legal enforcement of any different rules is trickier of course as it brings up the question of how you prove vaccination status, which is clearly something the government wishes to kick into the long grass for as long as possible. I guess the arguments for vaccine passports grow stronger as evidence of the impact of vaccination on transmission grows.

@ceeveebee

Huge number of LFDs yesterday for a Sunday (608k in England), presumably schools and/or parents (most of my primary school ‘mum’ friends tested yesterday in preparation for return today). Could explain the increase in day -1 cases?

Definitely though of the several mums I know few are actually bothering to log

sirfredfredgeorge

I agree the first two bullets are not particularly impactful (especially in the UK context). It is the third item - exemption from self-isolation / quarantine requirements after confirmed exposure to a positive case - that I find interesting and potentially significant.

@ceeveebee

Huge number of LFDs yesterday for a Sunday (608k in England), presumably schools and/or parents (most of my primary school ‘mum’ friends tested yesterday in preparation for return today). Could explain the increase in day -1 cases?

That is certainly a possibility. The 668,000 odd LFTs on Friday 5th generated just over 700 positives.

Really? Everyone I know seems to have logged? Why would you not?

Sorry that was supposed to quote @Frazzled2207

@ceeveebee

Really? Everyone I know seems to have logged? Why would you not?

Because it will seem "unnecessary" hassle, especially for a negative.

@JanFebAnyMonth
Exactly. I don’t see the point Tbh though would if I got a positive.
If my employer insisted I log that would be different.

The USA has never really been keen on a cautious approach; Texas is opening almost everything next week (eek). I found the funniest one was churches rebranding as strip clubs to stay open: www.newsweek.com/california-court-reviews-strip-clubs-lockdown-exemption-shuttered-churches-seethe-1555222.

[quote Frazzled2207]@JanFebAnyMonth
Exactly. I don’t see the point Tbh though would if I got a positive.
If my employer insisted I log that would be different.[/quote]
I'd log a positive too, or possibly just get a PCR and that would be logged. I might see how much hassle it is to log all tests (DD goes back Wednesday so we'll be doing them tomorrow) but if I'm not able to do it on behalf of others I'm not sure I'll manage to get the whole family (young adult DSD, DSS and DH) logging theirs. I see it as more important to do the tests, so that's where I'll focus.

@boys3 How are you getting the data on number of positives via LFTs? Do you work it out from the positivity rate reported? And what happens if they are followed up by a PCR - where do they get counted?

Oh I just am one of those people that always does as they’re told! School has asked us to log for data purposes (you get asked which school it relates to) and yes you can report for others.

@ceeveebee
Ok well if school has asked that’s a bit different. It will be important for their stats.
I’m a primary parent and a negative result will not help anyone other than me.

I’m a primary parent too, but our school has encouraged us to all test and to log the results.

It says in my test kit instructions:

"You must report a positive result to the NHS. You are also encouraged to report negative and invalid results.

Report your result so the NHS can monitor the spread of the virus, support communities across the UK, combat the virus and save lives."

.... but have just realised I've thrown my test strip away before logging my own results -!

@Firefliess the details are broken down to very detailed levels on a range of closed dashboards.

Given the proportion of LFDs, and the fact that, if take up is good, they will absolutely skyrocket over the coming days and weeks, the main dashboard really ought to provide a high level breakdown between P1 and P2 confirmed cases, and within P2 the PCR and LFD numbers.

@boys3
That is certainly a possibility. The 668,000 odd LFTs on Friday 5th generated just over 700 positives.
This gives us around 1% positivity rate among kids.
I wonder what number it would be if the lft's accuracy rate would not be around 50%?

And also, at this point in time, IMHO, cluster analysis would be beneficial.
If the 700 + cases are spread across 700 schools, than it's a very diff picture than if there are clusters of 10-30 kids in one school, or if there are msoa/small regional clusters forming.
Again, all data is there, it should be pretty easy to do.

And, btw, I really don't understand why public health related data is so secret. I want to know how many + test does our school and the 5 others within walking distance have for example.