Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I know the two Hunts areas (Number 2 and one much further down that list, quite contrasting in socio-economic terms), weird, must just be local outbreaks.

Has this been posted re, high MSOAs? From Twitter rp131.
Massive link between outbreaks over >20 and prisons now.
Possibly still not make up a huge proportion of weekly total (

Having a bit of a deep dive into the news for Sidbury, Offwell & Beer - it looks like they had outbreaks on October and December that were worthy of note too. It doesn't seem to include much more than natural beauty, one care home Holmesley and a few caravan parks that look to be tourist only and closed. The community college in Honiton might have tested everyone, but how they'd all catch it all once and right now would still be a puzzle. Anyway, it looks simply delightful for a visit in normal times, Beer Quarry Caves are huge.

Ah thanks @Loftyloft of course, there's a prison in one of those Hunts MSOAs

(Buckden and Perry)

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1368637516086132743?s=19
Interesting Twitter feed showing the correlation between the proportion of people voting Labour in the 2015 election and % who've had Covid. The likely explanation is of course that more people vote labour in areas that are urban and deprived (interestingly he says the correlation is weakr in the more recent elections, probably because they became Brexit-dominated elections where the link between class/wealth and voting patterns weakened). He also gives the same graphs for the US and finds the relationship to the reversed - leftwing leaning areas (ie voting democrat) had lower levels of Covid. My guess would be that's because of the way that Covid restrictions became politicised in the US with republicans politically opposed to lockdowns (and mask wearing). Through I'm also not sure there's the same correlation between working class and voting for the left wing party in the US. Anyway, thought it might interest people.

Nicky Morgan on radio 4 just trying very hard indeed to avoid answering straightforward questions but when pushed said that children who have a positive LFT, even at home, followed up by a negative PCR test would not be allowed in school. I think everyone will just be confused now. Do other members of your household have to isolate? Are classmates kept off for 10 days? She kept implying things were at the discretion of schools who would talk to pupils in this situation - but the 10 day isolation (for adults at least) is a legal requirement. There has to be a clear and consistent answer on it.

I am a teacher and I am confused. it is ridiculous.

The 10 day isolation thing, though, is clear in the DfE guidance. There had been plans to change it before Christmas but they were withdrawn. Looking at MN ,though, it looks like some schools don't actually know this. Which is a concern. There are also 200 pilot schools trialling a different system.

I also work in a secondary, no clarity, utterly ridiculous.

@Piggywaspushed

I am a teacher and I am confused. it is ridiculous.

The 10 day isolation thing, though, is clear in the DfE guidance. There had been plans to change it before Christmas but they were withdrawn. Looking at MN ,though, it looks like some schools don't actually know this. Which is a concern. There are also 200 pilot schools trialling a different system.

Do you know what the different system is?

Yes the trial is for the system announced in December and withdrawn in January, that close contacts of a positive can opt for serial testing over 10 days and still attend school.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Yes the trial is for the system announced in December and withdrawn in January, that close contacts of a positive can opt for serial testing over 10 days and still attend school.

ah ok. I thought that was abandoned. Not completely then.

[quote lurker101]@ancientgran just to reassure you, I had this same issue earlier this week - I’ve done LFT at walk in centres (always throat & nose), but this week had one (supervised) at a healthcare trust mass vaccination centre - it was only nose, the lady conducting it confirmed that the type they were using were only nasal when I triple checked. Didn’t want to go nose first if it needed to go in my throat too 😂[/quote]
Oooh definitely throat first, I just realised I'm pulling a bit of a Hyacinth Bucket disgusted face, good job you can't see me.

Thanks for that, I knew I could rely on this thread for an explanation.

@Firefliess
@Piggywaspushed

it looks like there is a now a uturn on this. Pasted from the Guardian live feed this lunchtime....

the spokesman did announce an important U-turn on the rules relating to pupils who test positive using a lateral flow test.

At the weekend the government said that these pupils would have to self-isolate, even if a subsequent PCR test showed they were negative. (PCR tests are recognised as more accurate.) Vicky Ford, the children’s minister, confirmed that this morning. (See 9.19am.)

But now No 10 is saying that, if a pupil tests positive in a lateral flow test administered at home, then if they do subsequently test negative with a PCR test, they can return to school. The spokesman said:

If a child takes lateral flow at home, so not in a controlled environment, then if they receive a positive, they will then receive a PCR test. If the PCR is positive, the child needs to continue to isolate at home. If the PCR is negative, then the child can go back to school.

This brings the rules relating to self-isolation and lateral flow tests for pupils into line with the equivalent rules for adults. The rules differentiate between lateral flow tests conducted in a controlled environment (where someone is there to ensure the process is being carried out properly) and lateral flow tests being conducted at home (where errors are more likely).

Thanks Frazzled. I think it was Vicky Ford I heard on the radio this morning (I heard it as "Nicky Ford" which I then thought I must have misheard and was Nicky Morgan)

Good to know they've sorted that out. Will be annoying for anyone testing positive during the first two weeks who's unable to get a PCR to check a positive result, but after that sounds more reasonable and, as they say, in line with what's happening for adults. If a nurse can go to work caring for sick and vulnerable people on the basis of a negative PCR following positive LFT I don't see why a child can't go to school!

But - I don't think that is a u-turn on policy?

It's always been the case that positive LFTs in school count as a positive and pupils must isolate (and results can't be overturned with a negative PCR), but positive LFTS at home need to be confirmed with PCR and if a PCR is negative, they can return. That Guardian u-turn isn't a u-turn, it's clarification of something they (and other press) managed to confuse people about...!

@PatriciaHolm
the government's own minister Vicky Ford was quite insistent this morning that the children who got a negative LFT followed by a negative PCR would in fact NOT be allowed back in school.

This was clarified later today by No 10 as being wrong.
So perhaps not a u-turn on policy but still quite staggering that a schools minister didn't understand her own policy.

You really couldn’t make up the whole to PCR, not PCR that is the (LFT) question, whether ‘tis nobler to self isolate after a positive LFT and suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take a PCR against a sea of trouble, and by confirmation as false go back to school

Not yet convinced about the scanning.

Back to reality

4712 cases, 65 deaths, first dose vaccinations now 22,377,255

She isn't a schol minister but yes she should still know!

What Patricia said is the actual facts but so many clarification and counter clarification just look very shambolic and are confusing.

It ahs also not been at all publicised that you aren't meant to eat or drink for 30 minutes beforehand.

Why is a school testing site less likely to return a false positive than an at home one? Or to put it another way - why is a positive at school any more likely to be a true positive? Again it seems unclear why there are false positives.

I can see why a school test may be less likely to return a false negative (tests being done properly vs not) - but not why it may be less likely to return a false positive.

Because trained staff supervise is the explanation. But, yes, your first point is fair. When case rates go up, it seems false negatives will become the bigger concern again.

There really should have been a clear campaign run on these LFTs.

Of course it could be 'something in the environment that causes a false positive' - in which case school = cleaner = fewer false positives. But it just seems so unclear.

[quote Frazzled2207]@PatriciaHolm
the government's own minister Vicky Ford was quite insistent this morning that the children who got a negative LFT followed by a negative PCR would in fact NOT be allowed back in school.

This was clarified later today by No 10 as being wrong.
So perhaps not a u-turn on policy but still quite staggering that a schools minister didn't understand her own policy.[/quote]
She's children's minister, that should be more like "if in doubt say you don't know rather than be wrong".

It is pretty odd that positive LFTs in schools don't need to be confirmed by a lab, but those taken at home do. I can well believe that secondary aged kids may fail to use a test properly and so return false negatives. I'm struggling to see how they'd manage to use the kits so poorly that they produced false positives - how would they manage to do that?? It may have some impact on the reported cases as well - may look as if rates at the start of term (where all positives are positive) are higher than a few weeks in (when many of the positives are being overridden by PCR tests) I hope there's some better data being used to see whether Covid is increasing in schools. I'm really pleased that schools are open, but it's something that ought to be watched via consistent data.

On a positive note, DSS's super-efficient school has just emailed to say they tested 1100 kids today (total number in school is about 1200) and all were negative.