Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

If it was an LFT then its nose only

I'm not so sure that's correct @Bordois
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/946612/How_to_do_your_test_COVID_19_instruction_leaflet_for_schools.pdf

Is the "how to do your test" leaflet for schools, clearly says to do the throat. I do agree previous discussion of it - particularly the NHS ones are nasal only, but I have no idea, it may depend on maker, although the evaluation didn't explain any differences.

@Bordois

If it was an LFT then its nose only

My LFTs say to do nose and throat.

Nose and throat for the school LFTs.

Our school has nasal only ones. The instructions on the tests are clear. I think different schools have been given different tests.

No, they shouldn't have been. The training is all about nose and throat.

It's pretty clear in all the materials.

I have to do them for work and its only ever been up the nose. Didn't realise there were different methods 😳

This was queried by nearly every teacher when they were first mooted at Christmas time. No satisfactory answer ever given!

5177 cases. Deaths are not zero, they'll be updated later.
First jab 416,834, second jab 31,562

Zero deaths on 7 March reported!
I know there will have been, but we haven't seen zero like forever!

@MRex

5177 cases. Deaths are not zero, they'll be updated later. First jab 416,834, second jab 31,562

Oh you think?

Bbc reports zero in Scotland, 3 in NI, 18 in Wales and 90 in England, this is from memory!

Patients in hospital should be shown to have dropped below 10k today based on admissions 707 and previous daily reduction percentages. It'll be updated on Thursday.

Still a massive 1542 people on ventilators (wishing them all well), that figure should have gone below 1500 now but it's dropping achingly slowly from the peak of 4077 on 24th January and the outcome of course can go either way. I think a number of patients have been in there a long time.

@ILookAtTheFloor

Bbc reports zero in Scotland, 3 in NI, 18 in Wales and 90 in England, this is from memory!

That's before the adjustment from PHE, which is often very low/negative on a sunday. There is a real possibility of sub 100 today, but it won't be zero!

@Mrex My nurse friend (who's recently been moved off the Covid ward back to her day job) tells me that people in ICU do spend many weeks there commonly, and that recovery is painfully slow for many of them. It's the very frail elderly who spend less time in hospital generally (as they sadly die quite swiftly). The middle aged people who end up in ICU do usually make it, but take a long time to recover and be discharged. As we've vaccinated the oldest first, the average age of people in hospital and in ICU is falling. We'd therefore expect the to see the numbers in hospital falling only slowly (relative to the fall in admissions) as hospitals are increasingly full of middle aged people who spend longer there.

specimen dates for England for the cases reported today.

Saturday 6th

First day of reporting, 918 cases, usual caveats but 48% lower than equivalent last week. Presumably boarding schools aside few if any schools likely to be doing any LF testing on the weekend.

Friday 5th

Second day of reporting, 2906 cases added, 3865 for Friday so far. 14% lower than equivalent last week. The split of P2 between PCR and LF for Friday will be interesting to see.

Of the cases reported today 85% had a spec date of Friday or Saturday.

Thursday 4th

Third day of reporting, 541 cases added, taking total to 4660, 26% lower than equivalent last week.

With the Thursday spec date that’s 97% of cases reported today covered.

Wednesday 3rd

Fourth day of reporting, 87 cases added, 29% lower than equivalent last week.

By day four 99% of spec dates covered.

This leaves Tuesday 30% lower and Monday 40% lower.

For the week starting Mon 1st 26121 cases so far as compared with 36731 at the same point last week.

.

@MRex just for you

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/07/covid-data-show-sewage-monitoring-could-be-vital-in-infection-control

Apologies it’s the guardian report not the original ( I don’t think it’s been linked already but sorry if it has been!)

@MRex

Patients in hospital should be shown to have dropped below 10k today based on admissions 707 and previous daily reduction percentages. It'll be updated on Thursday.

Still a massive 1542 people on ventilators (wishing them all well), that figure should have gone below 1500 now but it's dropping achingly slowly from the peak of 4077 on 24th January and the outcome of course can go either way. I think a number of patients have been in there a long time.

I wouldn’t call that slowly personally.

Ventilation numbers are baked in for about a month at least I’d say. You are looking at another month of falls regardless of what happens with case numbers in the next month. England is dropping at about 50 per day, this will tail off no doubt, but even so, there will not be many on ventilation by April 12th, probably about 700-800 for UK I’d say.

The more interesting stat would be “new ventilation patients”. Must be very low now I reckon.

And 3000 less patients in hospital in a week in England, a whopping 27.6% drop.

The cold snap slowed things, but things are back on track. Another week or two of these drops and the govt will rethink their strategy, 100%.

@Doomsdayiscoming

And 3000 less patients in hospital in a week in England, a whopping 27.6% drop.

The cold snap slowed things, but things are back on track. Another week or two of these drops and the govt will rethink their strategy, 100%.

You are not living up to your name at all😂

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Ha. I’m a very pessimistic person. I just can spot a trend, and this one is STRONG.

I’m not a covid denier like Lawrence Fox or anything, I just believe the situation in one months time is actually going to be better than people realise.

I can talk about climate change if you want depressing?

[quote Doomsdayiscoming]@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Ha. I’m a very pessimistic person. I just can spot a trend, and this one is STRONG.

I’m not a covid denier like Lawrence Fox or anything, I just believe the situation in one months time is actually going to be better than people realise.

I can talk about climate change if you want depressing?[/quote]
No your alright 😂

It is funny on mumsnet I am seen as too optimistic but in reality I an actually very careful and realistic.

Anyway your analysis above is appreciated ❤

Scientist* tried to work out what the true false positive /negative rates of LFTs might be, comparing them to PCR rates. It doesn't look good in terms of the false negative rate.

I don't follow all the Maths, would be interested to know what those of you who do think of this!

constantinides.net/2021/03/07/false-negatives-and-false-positives/?fbclid=IwAR3CXw5SXQNGfCYrE3ut8267C6A9Txc_JNKpqegThZ7MgSG01aGcsdLhte4

• Professor George Constantinides is head of Imperial College's Circuits and Systems Research Group and Professor of Digital Computation

@Bordois

If it was an LFT then its nose only

I had one for work in a care home, it was nose and throat.