Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Not strictly data but a good article on drawing together the many strands of the impact on Covid ( it’s long but worth a read)

www.ft.com/content/0e63541a-8b6d-4bec-8b59-b391bf44a492

Sorry posted too soon - it’s an I depth look at the areas in east London very badly affected by Covid and the challenges they face ( but can be extrapolate to other areas obviously). As I mentioned it is discursive though so short on data.

@Firefliess
Yes I am doing similar though I will be doing them as a parent (kids too young). If I get a positive lft I’ll isolate us all while I get a pcr but if that then is negative it’ll be back to normal for us all. I’m self employed and while I will act responsibly I can’t take (another) fortnight off for a positive lft followed by a negative pcr. Obviously I would if I got a positive pcr.

Agree with @sirfredfredgeorge ‘a concerns though.

@Firefliess ' approach is a very educated and independent one. If that's the most logical that the middle class can devise - as @sirfredfredgeorge said, what's going to happen to those less educated and confident?

This system is going to die rather quickly I feel.

@sirfred They're good points you're making. But the issue of logging all LFTs so that the data is complete I think is so very far from reality already. There's millions of these being given out to key workers currently (Have failed to find precise figure but this article says the UK government procured 384m of them www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287) All NHS staff and most other keyworkers are given bags of them to take home, and the figures on the dashboard suggest only a small monitority are being reported at present. I think we need to accept that most people are not logging their results currently. That's been rolled out to families of 10m school children (a further 20m people approx) twice a week, with no system that actually requires you to log them. You're right that we should have a system that doesn't require people to break rules in order to do what is sensible. So much better if the guidance told parents to get their child a PCR test if they test positive. This would also allow the parent to be honest about the positive LFT initially so that classmates could be told to isolate for the day or so until the LFT is confirmed. That is quite complicated though, with kids being in and out of school at short notice, and I guess there could be problems if people see that LFTs turn out often to be wrong, they won't trust them, or will be nervous to send a child to school if a classmate has had a positive LFT followed by negative PCR test and is back in school. Not sure there are easy answers!

@Firefliess
Agree.
I will (as a parent of primary kids) do mine responsibly but not sure what the benefit is in logging it so haven’t done that yet.
Got shouted at on another thread for not logging - “why wouldn’t you?” - but I think the amount of people correctly logging is relatively small.

I tried to sign up to the account to log a test on Friday. After endless info put in it just sent sn error message to try agsin.
Tried again - would not accept e address as already an account !!!!!!! Grrr... you know the kind of infuriating nonsense. After 40+ minutes of this I just gave up. Later geard colleagues all sane thing. So my and their negative are not and never will be recorded.

Sorry I am a lurker and I try to keep up but I'm a bit lost on the last few posts - I though that a positive LFT did have to be confirmed by a positive PCR? And if negative you don't have to isolate? Certainly that's what I've heard previously and what this Nhs page suggests (www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing-and-tracing/what-your-test-result-means/) - pic hopefully attached.

Why are people suggesting that doing that would be outside the rules?

@DownRightAmazing

Sorry I am a lurker and I try to keep up but I'm a bit lost on the last few posts - I though that a positive LFT did have to be confirmed by a positive PCR? And if negative you don't have to isolate? Certainly that's what I've heard previously and what this Nhs page suggests (www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing-and-tracing/what-your-test-result-means/) - pic hopefully attached.

Why are people suggesting that doing that would be outside the rules?

Because nobody told the DforE that they're being stupid making up their own rules.

We don't need to test, but if we did I'd do the same as above. I don't agree with the rules.

@Downright. My understanding is that the rules for schools are different and don't require a positive result to be confirmed via PCR

@DownRightAmazing
Schools have told kids (as per their guidance) that any positive lft followed up by positive pcr, still has to isolate. But this only applies to tests in schools.
Not tests done at home.

(Or perhaps I’ve got it the wrong way round but either way is contradictory and confusing! )

[quote Frazzled2207]@DownRightAmazing
Schools have told kids (as per their guidance) that any positive lft followed up by positive pcr, still has to isolate. But this only applies to tests in schools.
Not tests done at home.

(Or perhaps I’ve got it the wrong way round but either way is contradictory and confusing! )[/quote]
Sorry I meant positive followed up by negative of course. But the second test doesn’t have to be done if the test is done in school. It does if at home, and people as saying that that somewhat negates the motivation to officially record the positive lft as chances of having it cancelled out by a negative pcr are quite high.

Oh rubbish! Mine are primary age and I was intending to (voluntarily) test myself and DH at home regularly and have been encouraging friends to do the same but that would make me less likely to test if I'm being honest!

@DownRightAmazing

Oh rubbish! Mine are primary age and I was intending to (voluntarily) test myself and DH at home regularly and have been encouraging friends to do the same but that would make me less likely to test if I'm being honest!

You can still do the tests though. And if anyone tests positive, keep your household at home for a day or two while getting a PCR test done - then tell the school that result (not the LFT result, if different) They're still a useful screening test telling you you might well be positive.

@DownRightAmazing
Yes as @Firefliess said
I'm in the same situation as you and it's what I plan to do.

Yes I will do that. If we get a positive (unlikely since we've both had first vaccs but possible) I will tell school someone has a fever and we are isolating till PCR result.

Also does this mean that schools will be sending bubbles home on the strength of LFTs even with a negative PCR?

I think they will send the bubble home until a PCR test is done and then if negative the bubble can come out of isolation.

Dr Susan Hopkins was asked specifically about this issue ( LFT and isolation) on the Andrew Marr show this morning if anyone wants to listen to her explanation.

@LockdownIsDragging

I think they will send the bubble home until a PCR test is done and then if negative the bubble can come out of isolation.

But the child still has to stay at home?

@DownRightAmazing

Sorry I am a lurker and I try to keep up but I'm a bit lost on the last few posts - I though that a positive LFT did have to be confirmed by a positive PCR? And if negative you don't have to isolate? Certainly that's what I've heard previously and what this Nhs page suggests (www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing-and-tracing/what-your-test-result-means/) - pic hopefully attached.

Why are people suggesting that doing that would be outside the rules?

To be very clear positive LF tests from LF testing centres do not need a follow up PCR confirmation. Susan Hopkins reinforced this on the Andrew Marr show this morning. Positive LFs from a home test - ie not in a controlled environment - would though be expected to need a follow up PCR confirmation.

I'd argue that for designated LF test centres - who sole rationale for existence is to conduct LF tests - that makes a degree of sense; LF test accuracy notwithstanding. Whether Schools ; who core purpose is not conducting LF tests but to educate our DCs; should be placed in the same category I'm am less enthused about.

Some sort of simple matrix / decision tree might be a useful thing as to what to do dependent on where the LF test was taken and what the result was.

As for the reporting point made by Firefliess I could not agree more with this. We've already had a trial run with mass Uni testing. HESA (high ed stats authority) provides the number of students, the dashboard the number of daily LF tests. The gap between the two was of the yawning chasm variety. Although that may well have simply reflected low take up as opposed to reporting issues. Expecting millions of parents to create accounts to log test results is perhaps detached from reality overly optimistic

it is a definite concern as PPs have said. However overall I think it's still very very unlikely

It does possibly explain the LFT positivity rate being below the false positive rate found by Porton Down / Oxford though - no-one is actually filling in the data other than positives found in certain environments and a few people who want the positive (to get out of school / work).

So I don't think we can any longer say that the false positive rate found in the evaluation is too high if even none of the people on this thread would enter their results! What would you expect of people less interested in data!

I expect the non follow up is due to there being too many in terms of numbers. When liverpool did the whole asymptomatic testing study before xmas, all positive lft had to be confirmed by pcr and they were all test centre tests.

seems now its changed because theyll be too many

But there won't be too many?

ONS 1 in 230 rate, worst case Porton Down 1in 250 false positive and 0.7 rate.

5million kids, will mean 20,000 false positives, 15,217 true positives, twice a week requires just 70,000 more PCR tests a week.

According to gov data page, 750,000 is the daily capacity and currently around 450,000 is the highest ever done (at the peak in the first weeks of jan) and only 300,000 at the minute.

There would be absolutely no problem confirming all LFT positives right now.

Don't know if anyone can enlighten me, there is usually someone who can on here, I took GS for his test at school on Thursday. He said they only did the nose test, no throat swab. Is that OK, is that what they are supposed to do?