Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

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Not noticed this chart on the dashboard before - love the look of what I assume is exponential decay?!

@RoseWineTime

Not noticed this chart on the dashboard before - love the look of what I assume is exponential decay?!

Always good to see the dashboard following the ideas from these threads

Does anyone know why the EU are saying cases are so high in Europe? The reported cases don't seem crazily high, with the exception of Czechia who have very high cases plus high positivity. Poland has high positivity, but really quite low cases.

I think the difference in testing methodology is the reason, we're now so use to the UK's testing which is pretty extreme, that seeing positive cases in other countries which are so much lower makes it feel like their cases are lower. I'm not sure that the reality is quite the same, but it's hard to get real strong details of testing rates in different countries.

Re ONS and the over 80s visiting - we do the ONS testing survey. Each time we get asked 'how many times in the last week has someone other than a member of your household spent ore than an hour in your home' and 'how many times have you spent more than 1 hour in another person's home'.

We are not asked whether that is within current laws.

It may of course not be our survey they are getting the data from.

If you were asked whether it was within the law, I am not sure you would get honest answers.

Sounds like there may have been some misunderstanding and double counting of family and support bubbles in that survey of older people who've been vaccinated. But I do think you'd be naive to think that having been vaccinated doesn't make people relax the rules a bit. Some older people have been so isolated for a year now, and grandchildren grow up fast.

On the plus side, the real world effecacy of the vaccine could in fact be even higher than reported if the vaccinated people are taking more risks.

Using a 4 day lag no councils in England with a latest seven day rate above 200 per 100,000. Distribution by rate bands (number in brackets those councils with an increasing rate)

150 to 199: 19 (1)

100 to 149: 67 (2)

75 to 99: 59 (3)

50 to 74: 75 (4)

20 to 49: 88 (1)

@Firefliess that's a good positive point, yes!

"Does anyone know why the EU are saying cases are so high in Europe?"

I think you mean The WHO - and their primary concern is the rapid RISE in cases in Eastern and Central Europe. e.g. Poland, Hungary.

Contrast with say France where case numbers, although high are fairly steady.

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/just-0-14-of-secondary-school-covid-tests-are-positive-but-concerns-over-accuracy/?fbclid=IwAR2IhjAcPCEhOBmDRiLvt2oz-TFSBQZflHCHvOhi6MBXZZVEtIWgrdzEI

LFTs used in schools up to last week. 0.14 % positive which raises issue of both false negatives and positives.....

@notrub

"Does anyone know why the EU are saying cases are so high in Europe?"

I think you mean The WHO - and their primary concern is the rapid RISE in cases in Eastern and Central Europe. e.g. Poland, Hungary.

Contrast with say France where case numbers, although high are fairly steady.

Yesterdays figures from Worldometer (nice midweek count, usually more accurate) and we have now dropped to 17th! in the rankings, behind France, Italy, Czechia, Poland, Turkey, Germany etc etc

@MRex

Crikey. Italy has blocked 250,000 Astrazeneca doses from going to Australia using the new EU export law. (Sidebar, I thought Australia were making their own?) www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-9285-486a-b5ad-b015284798c8

This could get unpleasant. I hope the UK will use Pfizer only for second doses now.

I thought once you'd had a vaccine, your second "booster" had to be of the same one? So, if they've used a lot of AZ, they need the same amount again to do the "boosting"

@PussyCatEatingEasterEggs I was just going to post the same thing. I had AZ for first jab, so did my husband and I thought we were supposed to get it for the 2nd dose. I know they are testing mixing different vaccines and I wouldn't be against that.

Another zero day for South Hams. Hope there are lots of other zeros around.

LFTs used in schools up to last week. 0.14 % positive which raises issue of both false negatives and positives.....

These numbers are just completely incompatible with the porton down research on how effective they are, we really do need some more info on why the numbers are so different?

I'm stuck between hoping that the false positive is orders of magnitude different to their testing suggesting that the 0.14 is the real prevalence (which is very good) or even better hoping that the false positives are more like suggested for "under lab conditions" in which case the prevalence is amazing, but a bit inexplicable compared to the ONS/REACT/etc. figures.

Or so many tests are done deliberately wrong rather than simply declining such that they're not testing positive or false positive 'cos they're just testing water or spit or something.

[quote boys3]Using a 4 day lag no councils in England with a latest seven day rate above 200 per 100,000. Distribution by rate bands (number in brackets those councils with an increasing rate)

150 to 199: 19 (1)

100 to 149: 67 (2)

75 to 99: 59 (3)

50 to 74: 75 (4)

20 to 49: 88 (1)

@MRex

Does anyone know why the EU are saying cases are so high in Europe? The reported cases don't seem crazily high, with the exception of Czechia who have very high cases plus high positivity. Poland has high positivity, but really quite low cases.

Hungary is skyrocketing -again. I think if a section (country, region,...) is left to grow it has the potential to over spill and cause problems in a ripple wave manner.

The north south thing is curious. Lockdown has worked dramatically in the south & stalled in the north. Mind you, I’m in West Yorkshire & there was some survey done in my council area. Where I live (affluent postcode, semi rural village), 80% of people said they could WFH. Cases here are low. In the much poorer postcodes, 80% said they couldn’t WFH. Catering, food/drink, factory, NHS porters, taxi drivers, bus drivers etc .. cases there are significantly higher. There are also a couple areas in my council zone where the population is 95% Asian. Cases have always been through the roof there & vaccine take up is really poor 😣

Does the south just have less white collar office workers overall? Less industry & factories? Less multigenerational living? Seems a big generalisation but the north has historically always been poorer than the south..

@sirfred I reckon a big part of it may be kids not wanting to stick the swabs too far up their noses. Especially under the peer pressure of being with classmates - quite different from being supervised by parents as most younger teens would be normally when having a test done.

Australia haven't used AZ yet, I mentioned Pfizer because of the previous threats to withhold it. I'd happily have a mix and my parents would love it, but the trial of mixing vaccines hasn't officially completed to confirm what happens to efficacy and antibody longevity rates. I don't think that the JCVI would want to get out on the prison of being forced to approve mixed dosing just because of delivery obstructions.

The WHO is only basing their statements off the ECDC report on 4th March. I just don't see why they've suddenly raised a concern: www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea. Probably @sirfredfredgeorge is right and my view of case numbers is now utterly skewed because of UK testing; I do see some fairly horrendous test positivity rates by clicking through (several countries over 24%).

Hmm.
"get out on the prison of" should say "get in the position of".

Actually I've just read the full article - it seems most of the tests done this week are teachers - maybe they're too squimish to swab their noses!

The LFTs in schools are only being done on non-sick people of course - you would expect the rates to be lower than ONS/React which are testing everyone. Maybe teachers are particularly good at not going to work currently if they have any symptoms?

@sirfredfredgeorge

LFTs used in schools up to last week. 0.14 % positive which raises issue of both false negatives and positives.....

These numbers are just completely incompatible with the porton down research on how effective they are, we really do need some more info on why the numbers are so different?

I'm stuck between hoping that the false positive is orders of magnitude different to their testing suggesting that the 0.14 is the real prevalence (which is very good) or even better hoping that the false positives are more like suggested for "under lab conditions" in which case the prevalence is amazing, but a bit inexplicable compared to the ONS/REACT/etc. figures.

Or so many tests are done deliberately wrong rather than simply declining such that they're not testing positive or false positive 'cos they're just testing water or spit or something.

Those tests are known to give a huge number of false negatives and even more so if used by individuals who haven't been well trained to use them. I imagine a lot of cases are being missed.