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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

999 replies

boys3 · 27/02/2021 17:45

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
22
WarriorN · 04/03/2021 13:02

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

WarriorN · 04/03/2021 13:03

Sorry wrong thread!

UserEleventyNine · 04/03/2021 13:21

An estimated two out of five (41%) over 80s who had received the first dose of a vaccine less than three weeks ago reported they had met someone other than a household member, care worker or member of their support bubble, indoors; this appears to contradict lockdown regulations

But does it? What specifically was the question asked?

Indeed. Did the question specifically apply only to social contacts? They might be talking about the plumber or the washing machine repair man. If you've got a burst pipe or blocked loo, someone has to come into your house to fix it.

ceeveebee · 04/03/2021 13:37

There’s a chart breaking it down
23% visited Children
9% grandchildren
6% friends

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb
JanFebAnyMonth · 04/03/2021 13:38

Click on the link and read the report, it has a bar chart showing the different classifications of person those rule-breaking vaccinated over 80s met!

Eg 23% met at least one of their children. (Support bubbles are listed separately so presumably this was not strictly for support.)

JanFebAnyMonth · 04/03/2021 13:41

I think post-vaccination attitudes may be playing a large part in the decrease in rate of infections we're seeing now. Although if vaccines reduce transmission, is it likely?

It would be interesting to plot areas reporting increased social contact against vaccination rates by area.

MargaretThursday · 04/03/2021 13:46

An estimated two out of five (41%) over 80s who had received the first dose of a vaccine less than three weeks ago reported they had met someone other than a household member, care worker or member of their support bubble, indoors; this appears to contradict lockdown regulations

Dd2's just received a request to do a random test. I've just been through the survey for her to do it. It's got things like "are you currently working in..." and it includes education.
Well, do I put yes or no?
She doesn't "work" there . She goes to school, whether she works or not we could debate Wink.
But currently she's not in.
But she will be in when she does the test (next week or the week after).
You could argue for either answer.

So I would be a little bit sceptical as it depends on what they've asked.

If they've asked "have you seen anyone inside face to face?" people might well answer "yes", for example when they've answered the door to the postman. They're inside. The postman is 2m away outside, and probably only stayed long enough to wave and walk away.

If they've asked "if anyone has been into their house (or they've gone into another person's house" and stayed for 15 minutes or more. That becomes a different question.

JanFebAnyMonth · 04/03/2021 13:50

The report says "met indoors". Surely not many would include the postman (as long as he stayed on the other side of the threshold?!)

MRex · 04/03/2021 13:55

@sirfredfredgeorge

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccineattitudesandbehavioursinengland/over80spopulation15februaryto20february2021

An estimated two out of five (41%) over 80s who had received the first dose of a vaccine less than three weeks ago reported they had met someone other than a household member, care worker or member of their support bubble, indoors; this appears to contradict lockdown regulations

But does it? What specifically was the question asked, as we've had surveys like this where the headline is very different to the questions - e.g. leaving home whilst isolating where the only visit people did was to the drive in test centre? This is quite a bit higher level of rule breaking than has been indicated anywhere else, does it reflect other rule breaking?

The 4% including "Partner or spouse" make it a near certainty that the question hasn't been understood. If people are asked to tick all that apply, then many might select child / grandchild and support bubble for the same person.
sirfredfredgeorge · 04/03/2021 13:59

You think - I was thinking that the 80 year olds were heading out back on the dating scene and hooking up with their FWB that they'd missed in the last year?

MRex · 04/03/2021 13:59

Germany now approved AZ for over 65s and moving to 12 week dose interval: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56275342.

MRex · 04/03/2021 14:05

The exact questions asked are in the data file:
"Since being vaccinated against coronavirus (COVID-19), which, if any, of the following people who you do not live with, have you met with indoors?1"
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronavirusandvaccineattitudesandbehavioursinenglandover80spopulation

I would think that's confusing because of the risk of duplicating support bubble/ child. But yes, perhaps the 4% are FWB.

MargaretThursday · 04/03/2021 14:14

@JanFebAnyMonth

The report says "met indoors". Surely not many would include the postman (as long as he stayed on the other side of the threshold?!)
Well, I wouldn't, but I also know a couple of people who might well count that. They seemed to think if they took one step outside then it didn't count as meeting inside, but if they stayed on the doormat then it did count. Which I find strange, but it is they way they think-they are the sort of people that are stickler for keeping to the letter of the law too.
HSHorror · 04/03/2021 14:22

I would say though sensibly i would be much better off seeing my parents with our kids now while theyve been off school than next week...
Though i do think most infections will start being asymptomatic so elderly and younf spreading it and only those in the middle getting symptoms.

MargaretThursday · 04/03/2021 14:24

@sirfredfredgeorge

You think - I was thinking that the 80 year olds were heading out back on the dating scene and hooking up with their FWB that they'd missed in the last year?
🤣🤣🤣

Definitely.

wintertravel1980 · 04/03/2021 14:30

I think post-vaccination attitudes may be playing a large part in the decrease in rate of infections we're seeing now.

The slowdown in the decrease of infections identified by REACT goes back to the earlier period (ending February 23). It was already picked up by Zoe and the specimen date analysis produced by boys3. My personal hypothesis is that it related to cold weather that might have led to the increase in indoor socialisation.

The most recent numbers (once the weather changed for the better) have been looking very good. Both Zoe and boys3 analysis show positive trends. REACT numbers will only report these drops in 1-2 weeks time.

NuttyinNotts · 04/03/2021 14:48

The 4% of over 80s visiting a partner or spouse who they don't live with is almost certainly care home visits, rather than misunderstanding the question or being on Tinder!

sirfredfredgeorge · 04/03/2021 14:59

I think it's much more likely confused, only ~50% of over 80's even have a partner, to suggest that a significant portion of these are split across care home and community and that care home visits were possible when they are very difficult is I think a stretch. With 400,000 care home residents and 3.4 million over 80's it would have to be 1 in 3 or so having a partner in a care home and able to visit, just seems unlikely.

(Okay there are other hypothesises with the care home residents having multiple partners, or care home residents with under 80's as partners, but they're just as silly as the tinder one) With @MRex having provided the questions, I think a little confusion and the relatively low sample size is the better explanation.

MRex · 04/03/2021 15:17

In other news, I just booked my vaccine!! 2 weeks away, but very happy.

BigWoollyJumpers · 04/03/2021 15:22

DD just had her first LFT. Lots of schools locally doing them today and tomorrow. I wonder whether we will see an uptick in cases reported this weekend?

wintertravel1980 · 04/03/2021 16:00

Congrats, MRex!

MRex · 04/03/2021 16:04

Thank you, I think I'm getting Oxford AZ because I was allowed to book a second dose date.

03-03-2021 first doses 278,956 second doses 68,450
6573 cases / 242 deaths
757 new admissions

amicissimma · 04/03/2021 17:00

@MRex

In other news, I just booked my vaccine!! 2 weeks away, but very happy.
What's the etiquette here? Does one say "Enjoy!"?

Good news, though.

boys3 · 04/03/2021 17:01

specimen date for England.

Wednesday 3rd

Day one of reporting 1091 cases, usual caveats but 24% lower than equivalent last week.

Tuesday 2nd

3664 cases added, takes two day total to 4797, 30% lower than equivalent last week

Monday 1st

Continues to pleasantly surprise. Third day of reporting 593 cases added, total so far almost 41% lower than equivalent last week. I may have been a trifle pessimistic yesterday, at this rate Monday might even end up squeezing in just under 6000.

Weekend

121 and 51 cases added respectively, both days just past 40% lower than equivalent last week.

England seven day average based on a four day lag now just over 6500 cases.

OP posts:
MRex · 04/03/2021 17:23

Crikey. Italy has blocked 250,000 Astrazeneca doses from going to Australia using the new EU export law. (Sidebar, I thought Australia were making their own?)
www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-9285-486a-b5ad-b015284798c8

This could get unpleasant. I hope the UK will use Pfizer only for second doses now.