Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Swale!!! Wow, lovely to see them popping into the no cases category

What’s cool about Swale?

Is it a hashtag local herd immunity?

They were one of the first Kent variants to escalate at the same time as Thanet (who still have cases!). Cases went extremely high there and stayed high. They are one of the places at the upper end of known prevalence, so yes could be an indication of little thread of herd immunity. On the other hand, Lewes was never hit particularly hard comparatively and also has no cases, so who knows!

Thanks, boys3, it is great analysis (as always). Monday on Monday variance so far is higher than what I could ever expect.

I have also checked the MSOA map and, to my great surprise, my own area which was depressingly black and purple for months has turned white. We have quite a few medical professionals living in the area so I am guessing vaccination might have something to do with it.

I have also checked the MSOA map and, to my great surprise, my own area which was depressingly black and purple for months has turned white

1321 out of 6791 MSOAs now showing suppressed data for the most recent seven days (dashboard applied 5 day lag, so period running to 26th February.

30 / 573 in East Midlands

190 / 736 in East of England

226 / 983 in London

32 / 340 in North East (6 / 66 in County Durham)

73 / 924 in North West

345 / 1108 in South East

328 / 700 in South West

42 / 735 in West Midlands

55 / 692 in Yorks & Humber

this is all very positive. I generally am finding it quite depressing however how areas of London which were frightfully high in December have now managed to get to almost zero which is fab, but up here in the north west, while cases never got anywhere near as high, they're not going anywhere near as low either. Many places in the midlands, notably Leicester, in a similar predicament.
Here in GM we are still well above 100 per 100k and dropping ever so slowly despite everyone following the rules as far as I can tell. The general thought is up here peoples are less likely to be able to wfh but there must be more to it than that. Basically, I'm not convinced the lockdown is really working that well round here.
Andy Burnham likes to point out that cases never got properly low up here last summer hence what we've been seeing is to some extent one very long wave.
Very luckily, the vaccination programme round here seems to be doing very well with about 40% of all adults vaccinated. Our population is generally much older than London's, which probably translates into a higher proportion people vaccinated given the way it's skewed towards older people at the moment.

@Frazzled - you're probably right that there are more people working outside the home in the north of England. There are more manual jobs and factory jobs in the north on England. On the plus side, the vaccinations should now be working their way through the working age population, so I'd expect to see that chance soon. London's younger population won't help it there as they'll have to wait longer, as well as a high BME population who seem more anti-vaccination on the whole, which won't help anyone.

On the vaccine front, does anyone know more about how they’re being distributed? It’s being distributed to devolved Govts using the Barnett formula, but is this then also applied to healthcare trusts/regions too? I’m thinking that if it’s as broad based as population alone that could mean that a 40 year old in London is more likely to get offered a vaccine than a 40 year old in an area famed for an older population like Christchurch, Dorset.
Not that it really matters the speed they’re going at, but just wondering if anyone knew the answer.

They were doing catch-up for those with lower proportion covered for groups 1-4, I presume that's continuing down each set of groups. My area is "younger" so we only had 20% vaccinated by last week. Presumably my area will get more vaccines to distribute than other areas for the bigger hump of 30-50yo. (Percentages and age ranges not fully accurate because it's late so I'm half remembering and using those figures.)

You lot are brilliant and a total lifeline, for me who has felt very bleak at times.
If everything opens up in June as expected - and assuming numbers go down and stay relatively low by that point (similar to last summer) - how will your day-to-day lives look compared to now? I'm pretty cautious and don't work outside of the home/DH works from home and basically sees no-one. I can't see myself instantly shifting to 'woo party time' mode, I'd want to remain cautious for a while to see what the effect is of mass vaccination having been reached.... but I don't know what I'll be looking out for? Will I decide that vaccination means I no longer worry about catching Covid at all? (My main concern is long covid - I'm low risk for anything major, but as we have all seen, that is no guarantee of being fine - it's a horrid virus and I'd happily live my life never getting it!)

I don't do too much in close quarters with strangers in 'normal' life but I think the last thing for me would be returning to indoor exercise classes with lots of others (assuming they reopen), family member having driving lessons, going to a busy restaurant (again, assuming distancing is not really carried out...?). Kids will be in school/childcare, which is currently our main "risk". Foreign travel - I can't even anticipate when I'll feel happy to do that.

@Frazzled2207

this is all very positive. I generally am finding it quite depressing however how areas of London which were frightfully high in December have now managed to get to almost zero which is fab, but up here in the north west, while cases never got anywhere near as high, they're not going anywhere near as low either. Many places in the midlands, notably Leicester, in a similar predicament. Here in GM we are still well above 100 per 100k and dropping ever so slowly despite everyone following the rules as far as I can tell. The general thought is up here peoples are less likely to be able to wfh but there must be more to it than that. Basically, I'm not convinced the lockdown is really working that well round here. Andy Burnham likes to point out that cases never got properly low up here last summer hence what we've been seeing is to some extent one very long wave. Very luckily, the vaccination programme round here seems to be doing very well with about 40% of all adults vaccinated. Our population is generally much older than London's, which probably translates into a higher proportion people vaccinated given the way it's skewed towards older people at the moment.

My local council produces numbers based on a 3 day lag and based on this cases have fallen a lot more in Greater Manchester in the past few days. Whilst these rates are not 100% complete, they should be around 99% (I check them every day and they are very close to the final published rates). trafforddatalab.shinyapps.io/trafford_covid-19/

Sorry that’s the wrong screenshot - today’s attached now!

@Quarantino - Things will open up a bit gradually before June though (under current plans) so you won't have to make all the changes at once. Personally I think that once I'm vaccinated and as long as cases are reasonable low (I would count the current rates as reasonable low) I will do whatever I'm allowed legally. I'm looking forward to seeing colleagues face to face (which will mean train travel), having friends round, going to pubs, foreign travel. I've been saving money by not spending anything this last year - it's burning a hole in my pocket! I think the young are even more keen - DD will restart formal driving lessons as soon as she's allowed (it's looking like April for that). DSD tells me that all the clubs are already selling tickets for huge parties on 21 June, anticipating the great reopening

I'm sure you're not alone in being a bit unsure about it all through, and suspect they'll be a minority of people who struggle to recover and suffer from agrophobia or neurosis about germs in ways that make it hard to join normal life. They're not noticing they have a problem yet as noone is asking them to go out.

@Frazzled2207

this is all very positive. I generally am finding it quite depressing however how areas of London which were frightfully high in December have now managed to get to almost zero which is fab, but up here in the north west, while cases never got anywhere near as high, they're not going anywhere near as low either. Many places in the midlands, notably Leicester, in a similar predicament. Here in GM we are still well above 100 per 100k and dropping ever so slowly despite everyone following the rules as far as I can tell. The general thought is up here peoples are less likely to be able to wfh but there must be more to it than that. Basically, I'm not convinced the lockdown is really working that well round here. Andy Burnham likes to point out that cases never got properly low up here last summer hence what we've been seeing is to some extent one very long wave. Very luckily, the vaccination programme round here seems to be doing very well with about 40% of all adults vaccinated. Our population is generally much older than London's, which probably translates into a higher proportion people vaccinated given the way it's skewed towards older people at the moment.

I'm in the east Midlands and I feel a bit like this. Until last week cases were still 200 in my area. But I think we were lucky to escape the horrifying December numbers in London and Kent.

hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86343

Latest React study is out. Suggests rates still falling but less fast

This is all very positive. I generally am finding it quite depressing however how areas of London which were frightfully high in December have now managed to get to almost zero which is fab, but up here in the north west, while cases never got anywhere near as high, they're not going anywhere near as low either. Many places in the midlands, notably Leicester, in a similar predicament.

I'd noticed this too, if I go by LittleOwl's ranks per 100k. Our area (SE) we got up to about 900/100k and was just into the top 50 at one point. We've since dropped to nearly 50/100k and are in the bottom 1/3, despite having a few days of rises.
My parents' area (North) never got that high. They were round about 280 rank, perhaps 300/100k at the highest, but I'm not sure they even got that high. Despite almost most of the days being falls they're now in the top 100.

I think part of it is that the new variant hasn't reached them much yet. So when the southern areas were rushing up the rankings, they stayed fairly static. But they're also not falling as fast as other local to them places though. They were pretty consistently the best numbers in their county through to mid January. They're now in the worst half in the county.

It’s a similar story within London too, the areas that have been consistently high - Ealing and Hounslow for example, were “overtaken” by boroughs most affected by the Kent variant such as Tower Hamlets, but now that they have dropped massively, Ealing and Hounslow have returned to the top of the Covidmessenger table (at a London view) with levels similar to what they were reporting in early October, despite also having massive drops (25% in Ealing’s case for CM), now Ealing sits at 84th in England, Hounslow 105th compared to TH’s 245th.

It seems some areas have strong underlying factors that prevent them getting truly low, like we saw with Leicester last summer. They can be overtaken for a while where there’s specific issues in other areas, but their underlying infection rates remain high.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccineattitudesandbehavioursinengland/over80spopulation15februaryto20february2021

An estimated two out of five (41%) over 80s who had received the first dose of a vaccine less than three weeks ago reported they had met someone other than a household member, care worker or member of their support bubble, indoors; this appears to contradict lockdown regulations

But does it? What specifically was the question asked, as we've had surveys like this where the headline is very different to the questions - e.g. leaving home whilst isolating where the only visit people did was to the drive in test centre? This is quite a bit higher level of rule breaking than has been indicated anywhere else, does it reflect other rule breaking?

Ealing has Southall and Honslow both have a demographic not dissimilar to Bradford/Leicester. Also lots of work from the airport.

Surge testing in South Gloucestershire proving, hardly unexpectedly, to be unspectacular thus far. Out of almost 4500 tests on a recent day positive rate less than 0.6% overall. 165 LSOAs in SG, with over 80% having less than 20 tests, but this set produced almost half the latest number of positives with a rate of 1.2%. Around 10% had over 100 to around 350 tests, close to 60% of tests with around 40% of total positive cases, positivity rate around 0.4%. Sequencing results will be interesting once processed.

Sorry, it's probably been answered but are the surge tests PCR?

Yes they are piggy

@babyyodaxmas

Ealing has Southall and Honslow both have a demographic not dissimilar to Bradford/Leicester. Also lots of work from the airport.

Yes, but what is it about this demographic that keeps the numbers high?

It cannot simply be deprivation as there are plenty of more deprived areas of London and the UK. I have seen 'overcrowding' ie large extended families in a single property given as a reason, but that also makes little sense for the continued lingering of cases. I would expect the curve to resemble elsewhere but with higher numbers, if that was the reason surely?

Good : thanks jan !

With things like "rule adeherance" and "stricter measures" actually have the effect of extending the period of lingering cases because it specifically limits the reduction you get from recent infections. I wonder if the lingering (more so here in Leicester etc. who've always had the higher rates) is because of that, they've simply stayed lingering rather than having the spikes of the other peak areas which then provide a buffer.

Lockdowns alone not being enough to suppress to very low level in deprived areas / areas with large amounts of outside the home work etc.