Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 27th Feb

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Only just come across this thread. Very useful.

Thank you @boys3 ... you’ve compiled a very useful & comprehensive list of facts & figures. Thank you 🙏

@Piggywaspushed

My Borough is being very cautious about schools return. No students on site (other than for test) til all 3 LFTs are done. No school lessons until the 15th, therefore. Numbers still quite high round here.

It does worry me a bit when I hear about schools doing that - surely they're going to get much lower uptake of the testing if the pupils have to come in specially three times over just to be tested? Thankfully DSS's school think they can do the entire school (1300) in one day, just by staggering each year group's start time by an hour, and DD's mega large sixth form will also do the entire of upper sixth over the course of two days with them all coming in just before their first lesson, with lower sixth having one more week of online learning and getting their tests the following week. I think they'll have higher uptake of testing, as well as less disruption to their education than schools who decide to make them all come in specially.

They have 97% uptake so it seems not. It is helpful that they are doing evening appointments.

I'd worry about SD with the plans you describe!

Also everyone has an actual appointment time at DS's school. Call me pessimistic but I presume my school's testing regime will be carnage!

@mrsm43s

Surrey seem to have had the same issues Crawley did - Reigate and Banstead and Tandridge had a huge number of cases reported yesterday, presumably based on historic specimen date, as the daily figures seem fine.

Given the geographic closeness of these areas to Crawley, Horsham etc, I imagine this is a correction from a test centre that hasn't been reporting correctly?

I'll be interested to see what the cases reported today in those areas are.

Very similar story to West Sussex.

For Surrey as a whole

57 cases added to January

• 32 in Reigate & Banstead
• 20 in Tandridge
• 7 in Mole Valley
• any mathmos out there will note that must mean a small amount of reversals elsewhere

44 cases added in December

• 22 in Reigate & Banstead
• 17 in Tandridge
• 4 in Mole Valley

32 cases added in November

• 12 in Reigate & Banstead
• 12 in Tandridge
• 5 in Mole Valley
• then an odd one or two elsewhere

12 also added to Reigate in the first two weeks of February, 7 in Tandridge.

@Piggywaspushed

They have 97% uptake so it seems not. It is helpful that they are doing evening appointments.

I'd worry about SD with the plans you describe!

Wow! That's very impressive (if, of course they do all turn up for the swabbing as booked) I'm sure evening appointments must help with any who are reliant to parents giving them lifts in.

Those few districts in West Sussex and Surrey account for almost all the net additions between October and mid Feb.

After that 4 is the biggest net adjustment in any upper tier council area (Essex)

If each year group is starting at a different time how are children travelling in? Most of ours come in on busses which are obviously a mix of all year groups.

All these West Sussex/Surrey districts are served by East Surrey Hospital (based in Reigate and Banstead). Mid Sussex also uses the Princes Royal in Haywards Heath, which may account for it's lower number of "back of the sofa" cases. I'm wondering if it's anything to do with data coming out of tests carried out at East Surrey?

@LockdownIsDragging

If each year group is starting at a different time how are children travelling in? Most of ours come in on busses which are obviously a mix of all year groups.

No school buses. A mix of public buses/trains, which run all day, parents' cars and bikes/foot, so not too much of a problem when they need to be in for just one odd day

I'm quite worried that transport issues will prevent many children in rural areas from accessing their tests.

The sofa explanation is here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new#172_deaths_within_28_days_of_a_positive_test_added_to_scotland_and_uk_totals.

Sorry, here it is, I don't know why that bit didn't post??):
"350 cases have been added to the UK and England totals due to a previous failure to report the cases at source. This increases newly reported cases in the South East of England mainly Tandridge, Reigate and Banstead, Crawley, Horsham, Mid Sussex and Mole Valley."
Think you guys caught nearly all of them.

10% less in Hospital so far this week (Sun to Sat) 3 days to go.

Hoping for 3x more 600 drops each day.

In England** sorry

@Doomsdayiscoming

10% less in Hospital so far this week (Sun to Sat) 3 days to go.

Hoping for 3x more 600 drops each day.

Argh sorry, 13%**

@MRex

Sorry, here it is, I don't know why that bit didn't post??): "350 cases have been added to the UK and England totals due to a previous failure to report the cases at source. This increases newly reported cases in the South East of England mainly Tandridge, Reigate and Banstead, Crawley, Horsham, Mid Sussex and Mole Valley." Think you guys caught nearly all of them.

I reckon they've got a mole in this thread! And someone was dispatched to find the missing cases. Not enough to make too much of an impact overall though it seems.

A twitter thread from the Moderna biologist (who is part of the vaccine development team) hypothesising that the Brazil variant should not be viewed as a major concern:

mobile.twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1367142419188350976

Thanks @wintertravel1980, that's helpful on the reinfection rates as the Manaus figures complicate the picture. Put them back at only 15% infected but with crumbling healthcare and it's easy to see why it's been chaos in each wave.

I think people are extrapolating from the mild SA cases with AZ vaccine a lot still. The better example would be Janssen, which had much lower effectiveness than against other variants... but we take 50% against flu every year and it's 57%, so we should be able to relax once we pass a reasonable herd immunity threshold. 30% vaccinated + 15%(?) infected, we're 6 weeks away at most.

(I hope, cross fingers, etc).

@MRex

Thanks *@wintertravel1980*, that's helpful on the reinfection rates as the Manaus figures complicate the picture. Put them back at only 15% infected but with crumbling healthcare and it's easy to see why it's been chaos in each wave.

I think people are extrapolating from the mild SA cases with AZ vaccine a lot still. The better example would be Janssen, which had much lower effectiveness than against other variants... but we take 50% against flu every year and it's 57%, so we should be able to relax once we pass a reasonable herd immunity threshold. 30% vaccinated + 15%(?) infected, we're 6 weeks away at most.

I’m confused by the two 15% figures, are these linked? Or are you saying 15% for the UK?

They aren't linked, sorry, I think the latest sensible guesstimate for the UK was about 15%, but people could argue the figure all week long so I just put a ?

@MRex

They aren't linked, sorry, I think the latest sensible guesstimate for the UK was about 15%, but people could argue the figure all week long so I just put a ?

I know it’s a guessing game but it’s way way higher, IMO. And not evenly distributed across the UK. I’m of the opinion we are sitting easily at 30%. But you can’t just add vaccine % to that, as many have now been vaccinated who were infected.

In fact even if 30% was correct this may be an underestimate of some settings: eg hospital staff, care home staff etc. These people have now been vaccinated but probably have just got a booster. But it could be an underestimate for others: old people who were able to shield effectively etc.

Pretty headache inducing to think about it really.

But I agree overall, we are weeks from a very high level of the population having some sort of immunity. Time will tell if the Brazilian variant evades it, it might, but not on the scale the media think it might.

specimen dates for the cases added in England today.

Tuesday 2nd March

First day of reporting 1133 cases added, 15% lower than equivalent first day of reporting last week.

Monday 1st March

I'm pleasantly surprised by this one. 1736 cases added on first day of reporting yesterday, 19% lower than equivalent last week. Then 3400 added today, taking total to 5136 cases. That's a whopping 38% lower than at the equivalent point last week. Assuming no surprises tomorrow Monday could well end up below the 6,500 mark.

Sunday 28th Feb

356 cases added taking total to 3797 on 4th day of reporting. 42% lower than the equivalent last week.

Then Saturday 27th Feb stands at 4029, 40% lower; Friday 26th 5646, 36% lower.

The 7 day rolling average in England is now under 7,000 at 6937.

No more surprises evident for either West Sussex or Surrey - although given the age of the cases added these adjustments have absolutely zero impact on the current position.

Also starting to see a few more districts with covid free days in case terms.

South Bucks - zero cases on 26th Feb - it does not actually exist anymore with the new Buckinghamshire unitary authority however PHE, bless'em, continue to report cases at the old Buck's district level; unlike the ONS whose C19 deaths reporting is just for the new Buckinghamshire unitary council.

Possibly a bit early at three days in but Eden zero cases on 28th Feb; ditto East Devon; Rother; Maldon; Tewkesbury; Gosport; Ribble Valley; South Oxfordshire (although followed by 11 cases on Mionday 1st); Runnymede, and Isle of Wight* (a unitary council)

North Devon zero cases 26th Feb

South Hams zero cases 27th and 28th Feb

Torridge zero cases 26th and 27th Feb

West Devon - over achievers - zero cases 25th Feb, 26th Feb and 27th Feb

Lewes zero case 25th and 27th Feb

Forest of Dean zero cases 26th Feb

St Albans zero cases 24th Feb, although 34 cases since then

Swale ; yes SWALE !!!!!!!!!!! - zero cases 27th Feb

North Norfolk zero cases 27th and 28th Feb

Ryedale zero cases 24th Feb

Chichester 27th Feb

I thought you were just listing places where the middle classes hang out...ohhhh