The government is about to tell you that schools are safe

[noblegiraffe]

It's being reported that the government are about to embark on a two week PR campaign claiming that schools are safe. We've already seen hints of it in that Warwick report that was widely misreported as showing schools don't fuel community transmission (majorly pissing off the author who advocates a cautious return to schools).

The ONS random sampling survey graphs released today are amazing. They show a huge reduction in the infection rates due to lockdown, but the most incredible reduction is in the infection rate of secondary school children. They've gone from being the most infected subset of the population by far, to the 2nd least (behind 70+). It's clear that despite arguments that secondary kids were catching covid out of school (sleepovers, hanging around in parks etc), this just isn't true and the lack of mitigation measures in secondary schools allowed covid to run riot.

We can't re-open in the same way as in September. That would be madness. I know that people will say that it's fine, vulnerable people are being vaccinated and kids don't get it badly BUT what is not acknowledged is that kids aren't being vaccinated, a lot of their teachers won't be by March 8th, nor their parents and so we still need to keep infection levels down. In addition, rampant covid is incredibly disruptive to education. Teachers off for weeks, kids off isolating, some kids in, some kids out...Sept to Dec was a mess that we should be trying our best to avoid repeating. Vaccinations don't address that issue at all.

Community levels are low, but then they were low in September. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops are shut now, but we want to be able to open them. We cannot rely on community levels remaining low to stop covid getting into schools and proliferating.

We need to be careful, because certainly secondary schools aren't safe to re-open in a Big Bang gung-ho way that some are advocating, particularly with a more transmissible variant in circulation. Remember to the week before Christmas when school attendance plummeted in Kent and London? In one LA, secondary attendance was at 17%. And yet the DfE decided to threaten schools that wanted to close early to stop the spread with legal action. The schools were right, and the DfE was wrong. Gavin Williamson can't be trusted to have sensible conversations about safety, he's more interested in bully-boy tactics and setting himself up in opposition to teachers and schools.

What can be done? I think there is room to open schools in some way on March 8th. My personal preference (and I'm no spokesperson for teachers here, other opinions will vary) would be primaries back and exam years back for three weeks, then Easter can be used to examine the impact of the full primary re-opening . I'm not sure that school is such a major factor in transmission at primary as it is at secondary for various reasons, however I'm sure that my primary colleagues have their own ideas about what needs to be done there. If full primary re-opening looks untenable, then I would prefer rotas to only certain year groups in. Some school for all pupils would be better than all school for some pupils as we had last year.

Secondary is a different kettle of fish and should be treated separately. Secondaries were a massive risk for transmission. The word 'bubble' should never be used in reference to secondary schools again, as 'bubble' means a group of people who all have to isolate if one of them catches covid, which went in the bin in secondary around the end of September. There are some easy wins in secondary -
Masks in classrooms would be easy and cheap to implement. Exemptions would apply and clear ones could be provided where necessary for lip reading.
A national programme to improve ventilation.
Testing and isolation of any contacts where positive cases are found to flush out asymptomatic pupils (PCR not LFT).
Moving quickly to remote learning where there are outbreaks instead of trying to keep year groups in and schools open as covid works its way through - the attendance just before Christmas in some schools meant kids would have been better served educationally if they were all at home.

Home LFT testing of kids - I'm not convinced tbh, maybe in addition to above measures, but certainly not instead of them.

So if the government messaging is as it has been: schools are safe and no additional measures to contain the spread in secondary are needed then they are lying and our kids deserve a more consistent and sustainable education than they got from September.

Fingers crossed they are more sensible than we have previously seen.

the infinitesimal risk of under 60s (presumably schools do demographic risk assessments for their staff) dying

As a maths teacher the OP knows the meaning of infinitesimal, which you evidently don’t.

I am willing to take that risk, as I said so are most people unless you are utterlly paranoid!

Children need to be In School - there is risk of getting long covid every day (shops, etc) doesn't mean we shouid alll stay in shitting ourselves!!

I shop once a week, so that is not a daily risk. I also wear a mask, and am only briefly less than 2m from other people. In a classroom I spend hours a day less than 2m from 150+ students with no mask or ventilation.

I don't want to take the risk; I've seen my utterly broken colleagues.

I want to go back to f2f teaching, I just want some protection.

Boot boy swoon

[quote SpencerGregson]@ChloeDecker
My children's attainment is by and large where it should be.

It's not their academic attainment I'm worried about. It's everything else they're missing out on and how it's affecting them. School is about so much more than school work.
[/quote]
I agree. There is a thread going on right now discussing the very same and I even wrote to my MP yesterday to put forward the point that this is very important for our children.

I was of course directly responding to a poster who was talking about home schooling not working for all secondary kids. I am pleased to read yours have been doing academically well too. I know all are of course but then thousands of children didn’t last term either and it’s despicable a loud minority want to gloss over that.

I very much want the focus going forward to include a large chunk of wellbeing and mental health support, as well as good old fashioned safer socialisation for all children. Having the stress of being told to self isolate with less supporting we go back to more of the same, is not going to help with that.

Funnily enough, that thread I mentioned has not attracted half as many people wanting to discuss ways forward for how children can be supported better. Probably because it wasn’t started by noble and says quite a lot about motives by some posters really.

@CovidHalloween

It’s not about locking kids forever, *@Remmy123* it is about being careful with the next steps because of we don’t we will mess up all the hard work of lockdown and go back into another lockdown. The schools need to be safe Teachers need to be vaccinated School return should be staged so to give the nhs more time to vaccinate the population especially the under 50s who can be super spreaders due to the nature of their work. The virus will find its way back to the vulnerable and vaccinated lot if it’s too prevalent in the community. The more the virus jumps around the more chance it has to mutate and the vaccine can become less effective. We all want to go back to school and work etc but small steps will be worth it on the long run than doing bigs steps in the dark. I really want this to be over and done with. What we do next will define what our summer will be like.

So you mean September at best? Or stay home forever because a million things can happen

@HercwasanEnemyofEducation

What difference is teenagers in school vs teenagers hanging out on logs in the woods, sharing beers?

My classroom is full of beer, must be the ventilation outside that's the big difference.

Quite, beer sipping eg sharing the same can round 6 of them, is certainly the same germ exposure issue as sharing a classroom with a mask at at distance.

Many teenagers have not been distancing.

Many schools are seeing large %s of children in school due to ‘key worker’ status.

What difference has it made?

They are saying 50% of infections are from Supermarkets. Let’s ban supermarkets.

Enough is enough.... Go and tell that to the virus.

At the end of the day, we are animals inhabiting a rock in space... We shouldn't take anything for granted.

We have no idea how this will pan out. Maybe it will fizzle out to nothing.. Maybe it will turn awful.
I'd rather not give it chance to mutate and get the numbers reduced as low as possible.

Many schools are seeing large %s of children in school due to ‘key worker’ status.

What difference has it made?

Secondary attendance (from memory) is 6%. See ONS graphs from today for the difference it has made.

The supermarket figure is skewed because its the only place people will admit to going.

Ps. Most classrooms don't have masks.

@Piggywaspushed

How many teachers will get the vaccine between 8th March and 1st April that we need to wait for?

I imagine all the CV ones...

Well, how many is that? Reading the list of what is defined as CV it cant be that many working in schools.

@echt I think you need to pop over to BBC news regarding Japan. They have an article on today's page saying the complete opposite to you. Suicides rising on a background of a previous successful reduction plan. SImilar numbers of female suicides this year to covid deaths.

[quote Rainbowsandstorms]@noblegiraffe thank you for all your hugely informative posts about schools over the last few months. As a parent of a primary aged child who has been home schooling due to safety concerns while fighting to keep my child’s school place I personally feel that community transmission rates are too high to open any schools safely including primary. I don’t feel comfortable sending my child into a bubble of 80 students who all play closely together, have poor respiratory hygiene and no real concept of any need for social distancing. Given the airborne nature of COVID it feels hugely irresponsible given the new variants to test out reopening schools with our youngest children. Our youngest children often display more subtle symptoms and due to the messaging regarding key symptoms I think many parents are unaware of the way symptoms often present in younger children meaning that spread from primary schools is often more obvious in parents. I feel that we need to wait until after Easter to allow rates to further drop and reduce the risk to both children, staff and parents. Then there need to be further safety measures in place bearing in mind that we are dealing with a more transmissible variant and no children, few teachers and very few parents will be vaccinated. Let’s hope the government finally do what is needed to make schools safer and less disrupted.[/quote]
Good to have another opinion. I do want to be challenged on the primary school stuff because obviously I feel like I might be throwing my primary colleagues under the bus there.

I've got concerns about the transmissibility of the new variant and the effect it will have on school re-opening. At the moment, some posters are suggesting that we wait till after Easter and open schools then. However, after Easter it probably would be a 'Big Bang' approach - and what if it quickly becomes obvious that that was a mistake? There's weeks till half term and the break is only a week long. I feel like before Easter is a good time to test the water and the infection rate data and vaccine data should be good enough by then to allow at least some children back.

Secondary were a much bigger problem than primary before Christmas. Primary already have a quarter of the pupils in nationally, and it would more more problematic to implement rotas and maintain that provision than at secondary. My solution of having them all back in for three weeks and then two weeks closure gives a chance to see how it goes (new variant) with a firebreak if it goes wrong (Easter).

Keeping them all off till Easter then all back after seems less cautious.

There is probably data out there about how primary schools with high numbers of keyworkers/vulnerable have fared during this lockdown with the new variant which would be useful to know, but I'm not aware of it.

There are 7 million+ in group 6 : it is the largest vaccine group. So a lot of teachers, including lots that I know.

They are saying 50% of infections are from Supermarkets

What they say is they can trace that 50% of infected people have been to a supermarket in the 48 hours before symptoms.

Not surprising really when they cannot go elsewhere

@echt

Christ I'm not with it.

Suicides steady, though calls to agencies up.

If you reply, please quote.

I’ve nearly topped myself these past 2 weeks.

Suicide is the next new death rise % followed by untreated Cancer deaths. Mark my words!

Then next mental health / medical issues spiralling will be liver disease, alcoholism, depression, Agoraphobia, diabetes type 2, high blood pressure, obesity related illnesses.

We need to protect our vulnerable. We need to protect our front line including teachers. Teachers need jabs, shielding need a system for support (food etc)

We need to get back to School and work. Unless the hospitality industry opens, many might top themselves anyhow.

It definitley includes my DH kingat , for example. And three members of SLT at my school. Two PE teachers. Two Heads of year.

Many TAs. Off the top of my head.

@itsgettingwierd

They are saying 50% of infections are from Supermarkets

What they say is they can trace that 50% of infected people have been to a supermarket in the 48 hours before symptoms.

Not surprising really when they cannot go elsewhere

By the same standards. You can’t go anywhere else, where did they catch it from?!

I go out about once a week. To a supermarket. If I get it. That’s where I got it.

I don't think anyone has collected data on how many CV teachers there are. (surprise the government haven't )

Looking at the list there are plenty of people I know. Often you wouldn't know whether someone is CV.

By the same standards. You can’t go anywhere else, where did they catch it from?!

Wherever they illegally went.

Or their asymptomatic kid bringing it home.

Where are people getting the idea that CV people are being vaccinated?

Over 70 and CEV is all I'm aware of.

A pp was saying something about how a lot of the people dying/in hospital in younger age groups were obese.

When they were saying it was elderly people it was all 'they've lived their lives, they'd be dead soon anyway'. What's the reason for not caring if obese people end up in hospital/dying? They haven't lived their lives and wouldn't be dead soon anyway, but it is written as if 'oh well, they're obese so they don't matter'.

@HercwasanEnemyofEducation

Many schools are seeing large %s of children in school due to ‘key worker’ status.

What difference has it made?

Secondary attendance (from memory) is 6%. See ONS graphs from today for the difference it has made.

The supermarket figure is skewed because its the only place people will admit to going.

Ps. Most classrooms don't have masks.

6% totally. What about up north? Show me that and rise in infections? Where some areas are 50% plus attendance

honey, I can only assume some people are muddling CV and CEV.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-care-home-and-healthcare-settings-posters/covid-19-vaccination-first-phase-priority-groups

CEV only in group 6.

It’s not just the children. I’m a primary teacher. We have staggered entry / end of day. Many parents don’t social distance. Just turn up and have a natter with their mate. We spent all day keeping kids apart then kids run off as parents are friends so no social distance. Schools need staff to open so if staff are CEV then who runs their class?

@pinkunicornwithacatonitsback one of the reasons other buildings can’t be used is facilities. Infant Primary school children are entitled to hot dinner as are FSM. How do you get lunches there? How do you let the children have play time outside? Many inner city schools just have a yard. Saying go outside - it’s been freezing this past month. I don’t want be outside for hours. School staff. Where do you put kids who may have additional needs and not cope being in a different building without enough toilets.

No WiFi available to access school drives off site. Which schools do you choose? What about if you have a kid in y1 y3 and y 5 how do you collect them? Schools don’t have the money. No money for PPE no money for extra staff. It’s been really hard

6% totally. What about up north? Show me that and rise in infections? Where some areas are 50% plus attendance
Very very few secondary schools are anywhere near 50% attendance.

I don't even know what you're on about up north.