The government is about to tell you that schools are safe

[noblegiraffe]

It's being reported that the government are about to embark on a two week PR campaign claiming that schools are safe. We've already seen hints of it in that Warwick report that was widely misreported as showing schools don't fuel community transmission (majorly pissing off the author who advocates a cautious return to schools).

The ONS random sampling survey graphs released today are amazing. They show a huge reduction in the infection rates due to lockdown, but the most incredible reduction is in the infection rate of secondary school children. They've gone from being the most infected subset of the population by far, to the 2nd least (behind 70+). It's clear that despite arguments that secondary kids were catching covid out of school (sleepovers, hanging around in parks etc), this just isn't true and the lack of mitigation measures in secondary schools allowed covid to run riot.

We can't re-open in the same way as in September. That would be madness. I know that people will say that it's fine, vulnerable people are being vaccinated and kids don't get it badly BUT what is not acknowledged is that kids aren't being vaccinated, a lot of their teachers won't be by March 8th, nor their parents and so we still need to keep infection levels down. In addition, rampant covid is incredibly disruptive to education. Teachers off for weeks, kids off isolating, some kids in, some kids out...Sept to Dec was a mess that we should be trying our best to avoid repeating. Vaccinations don't address that issue at all.

Community levels are low, but then they were low in September. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops are shut now, but we want to be able to open them. We cannot rely on community levels remaining low to stop covid getting into schools and proliferating.

We need to be careful, because certainly secondary schools aren't safe to re-open in a Big Bang gung-ho way that some are advocating, particularly with a more transmissible variant in circulation. Remember to the week before Christmas when school attendance plummeted in Kent and London? In one LA, secondary attendance was at 17%. And yet the DfE decided to threaten schools that wanted to close early to stop the spread with legal action. The schools were right, and the DfE was wrong. Gavin Williamson can't be trusted to have sensible conversations about safety, he's more interested in bully-boy tactics and setting himself up in opposition to teachers and schools.

What can be done? I think there is room to open schools in some way on March 8th. My personal preference (and I'm no spokesperson for teachers here, other opinions will vary) would be primaries back and exam years back for three weeks, then Easter can be used to examine the impact of the full primary re-opening . I'm not sure that school is such a major factor in transmission at primary as it is at secondary for various reasons, however I'm sure that my primary colleagues have their own ideas about what needs to be done there. If full primary re-opening looks untenable, then I would prefer rotas to only certain year groups in. Some school for all pupils would be better than all school for some pupils as we had last year.

Secondary is a different kettle of fish and should be treated separately. Secondaries were a massive risk for transmission. The word 'bubble' should never be used in reference to secondary schools again, as 'bubble' means a group of people who all have to isolate if one of them catches covid, which went in the bin in secondary around the end of September. There are some easy wins in secondary -
Masks in classrooms would be easy and cheap to implement. Exemptions would apply and clear ones could be provided where necessary for lip reading.
A national programme to improve ventilation.
Testing and isolation of any contacts where positive cases are found to flush out asymptomatic pupils (PCR not LFT).
Moving quickly to remote learning where there are outbreaks instead of trying to keep year groups in and schools open as covid works its way through - the attendance just before Christmas in some schools meant kids would have been better served educationally if they were all at home.

Home LFT testing of kids - I'm not convinced tbh, maybe in addition to above measures, but certainly not instead of them.

So if the government messaging is as it has been: schools are safe and no additional measures to contain the spread in secondary are needed then they are lying and our kids deserve a more consistent and sustainable education than they got from September.

Fingers crossed they are more sensible than we have previously seen.

@MrsHamlet

We are categorically not saying schools need to stay closed. We're saying that schools need to be reopened slowly and carefully, with mitigations. Why is that so very bothersome to some people? If it protects me, it protects your kids too... and not just their physical health but their education too.

Yes I agree with you - as well as the open now now now posters there are quite a few that seem to want to me in lockdown for a very long time to come.

I'm in no rush to return to weekly disruption and isolations that confined my sons to their homes for weeks on end.
Exactly this.

• Oh FFS. What about the pregnant shop assistants? What about pregnant women who have to visit shops? What about pregnant bus drivers?

Or should everyone just stay at home, forever, while our children and young adults bear the brunt of this paranoia?*

In shops people wear masks and socially distance. They limit the numbers in shops.
In a shop you may briefly pass close to someone but maximum for 30 second - not from 9-3.30pm.
In a shop I have never had to wipe anyone's nose, clear away their plates, sit next to someone to hear them read, do first aid, cuddle/console, customers don't generally pick their nose then hold your hand either.

The trouble is Hauntedpencil that it doesn't suit the "work shy teacher" narrative if people accept that.

@FiveFootTwoEyesOfBlue

The government is about to tell you that schools are safe

NO.

1. There's no such thing as 'safe' or 'not safe' in this context, it's just nonsense. Everyone agrees that there is virtually no risk to school students. The risk to teachers of serious illness depends mostly on their age, but also on underlying conditions. The risk to them is low. Teachers and TAs who are more vulnerable due to CEV status have the right to not work or be in non-contact roles, and should also be vaccinated now or very soon. Teachers are not most at risk - most at risk occupations are security guards, bus drivers, supermarket workers IIRC.

1. The reason schools were closed is not due to risk to students or teachers but because of the effect on community transmission. SAGE have said that levels are low enough to warrant schools re-opening, the detrimental effect on children and young people is such that the trade-off (delay to e.g. hospitality reopening) is considered worth it, and I agree.

1. The school experience in Sept-Dec was not 'a mess' in all schools, it certainly wasn't in my DC's two secondary schools, both of which had just a handful of cases that were very quickly contained.

1. If schools are such hotbeds of transmission, why weren't there thousands of schools with out-of-control rates of transmission being closed down all the time in Sept-Dec? It just didn't happen.

1. Many other countries also kept schools open as long as possible. It's not some evil Tory plot to kill off teachers. Read the Royal College of Paediatricians statement.

The risk is direct to teachers and especially to clinically vulnerable teachers and students but also indirectly, if we have another surge of infections - not good for any of us, including children. A further surge of infections of course could jeopardize educational stability in the medium term, if there are further isolations/ school closuresor or the possibility of lockdown again. The research re occupational risk is flawed, by the way.

1. Yes to community transmission being a major concern. Re SAGE advice see here www.tes.com/news/analysis-will-covid-rates-be-safe-8-march-opening

"Earlier this month, [Calum Semple from SAGE] said infection levels were far too high for schools to reopen without risking another rise in Covid cases.

... "I think we need to be looking at the numbers closer to where we [were] at the end of the summer, when we really had suppressed the virus significantly, and we’re nowhere near that yet.”

... we are still very far off the relatively flat numbers seen last summer, which saw daily cases fall to just 1,041 on 1 September – nearly nine times lower than the figures we are currently seeing." and

"Some scientists speaking in favour of March reopenings still advise that schools take strict precautionary measures when welcoming pupils back, including keeping classrooms ventilated, using outside space whenever possible and encouraging mask-wearing. There is also support for teachers to be prioritised for vaccines.

There is a fear that reopenings could push the "R" [Covid reproduction] rate above 1...

The vaccination programme ...could suffer setbacks, or ... the virus could mutate into an even more virulent form, which might force the government to rethink its "road map"."

It is great that numbers have come down, but there is still concern at the current level of infections. Back in September, SAGE was asking for a circuit breaker when numbers were lower than this.

1. re regional variation

"The prime minister has said that he wants to take a national approach to lockdown restrictions from now on, so whatever decision is made on Monday is likely to affect the whole country.

This could be problematic, according to [Karl Friston of SAGE]. “There’s regional variation,” he says. “There’s current concern that in areas of the North East and North West it seems to be very difficult to get the prevalence of infection as low as in areas such as London.

“Some local authorities will have to be more cautious than other local authorities.” "

1. There were cases in 1000s of schools. The advice from PHE was variable and inconsistent re how to manage this. By the middle of December 1 in 40 secondary schoolchildren was recorded as having covid in the ONS survey.

1. Russell Viner the president of the Royal College of Paediatricians is firmly in the Gupta/ Heneghan camp. He has come up with some very strange arguments in the past year around the possibility of transmission of covid in schools etc. So many people now regard his statements with scepticism.

Also, the UK is unusual in its disregard for WHO advice on opening schools. We are doing less in mitigation than some African countries.

I don't think the Tories want to kill teachers off, they just aren't that bothered about workplace safety for them.

@MartinAtAFuneral
Are you suggesting there are as many people who have had covid badly (ie with hospital admission) as there are long flu? Within the same time frame?

Because that’s what we’re dealing with.
a) the right of those working in schools to a safe working environment.
b) the need to keep hospital admissions down so that they can function effectively.

Oh FFS. What about the pregnant shop assistants? What about pregnant women who have to visit shops? What about pregnant bus drivers?

Do they spend six hours a day in a comparatively small and unventilated room with 30+ people in close proximity without masks on? Do they bend heads next to them to help with schoolwork? Do they zip up coats/clean scrapes/dry tears/help others change for PE? Do they share pencils/resources with them freely?

Or, do these examples above have plastic screens, gloves, mandatory mask wearing in place?

Would you close schools for a disease that had the same fatality rate as seasonal flu?

Schools do close for local outbreaks of other diseases. I can recall norovirus twice in the past 5 years.

It’s great news and I really hope they are. Then I’ll know my nephew who is nine, will actually get out the confinement of the flat he’s been cooped up in because his mother has severe depression.

www.ifs.org.uk/publications/15302?fbclid=IwAR1DGN8ymdxWcWxaaPICATeR7xOIKQVTweFOhgm7Lcbyvp06gRmth_igQ4c

With DC in secondary, I hear you Nobel.

Just like you I want nothing more for secondaries to be back safely. It’d be a crying shame to go Big Bang again and waste all the sacrifice we’ve made so far.

Let’s do this properly so we don’t have to do it YET AGAIN when the government gets complacent.

When did we forget that unless you’re in a vulnerable category, you are just as likely to die from something else as you are from coronavirus. These considered most at risk have now been vaccinated. Everyone else needs to get on with things including education. You may get coronavirus and get ill, you may be run over on the way to school, you might get stung and have a reaction. Anyone could die any day from multiple things but probably not coronavirus.

MartinAtAFuneral
Or should everyone just stay at home, forever, while our children and young adults bear the brunt of this paranoia?

Has anyone other than those that want schools open now with no safety measures said this?

@Hammonds He should already be accessing a vulnerable student place at school if that's the scenario.

[quote chloworm]www.ifs.org.uk/publications/15302?fbclid=IwAR1DGN8ymdxWcWxaaPICATeR7xOIKQVTweFOhgm7Lcbyvp06gRmth_igQ4c[/quote]
And? The government closed schools, suspended the curriculum and then set limits on the return.
The requirement for remote learning is entirely different now.

@HercwasanEnemyofEducation

Would you close schools for a disease that had the same fatality rate as seasonal flu?

Schools do close for local outbreaks of other diseases. I can recall norovirus twice in the past 5 years.

Yes if it was as contagious as Covid, it's the sheer numbers that get it that causes an issue. And no flu deaths in any year have touched the sides of what we are dealing with now have they?

Covid is NOT flu.

@Blacktothepink

My nephew got covid from school in December and is in hospital with kidney damage and high blood pressure, children can be left damaged, but not according to the Government.

How's he doing now? How old is he.

Schools do close for local outbreaks of other diseases. I can recall norovirus twice in the past 5 years.

In response to a severe outbreak, yes. Not for weeks or months at a time, when staff and students are healthy, with no reopening date...

My DC had an awful time with constant isolations and missed loads.

@katieloves

When did we forget that unless you’re in a vulnerable category, you are just as likely to die from something else as you are from coronavirus. These considered most at risk have now been vaccinated. Everyone else needs to get on with things including education. You may get coronavirus and get ill, you may be run over on the way to school, you might get stung and have a reaction. Anyone could die any day from multiple things but probably not coronavirus.

This ^^

@FrippEnos

MartinAtAFuneral Or should everyone just stay at home, forever, while our children and young adults bear the brunt of this paranoia?

Has anyone other than those that want schools open now with no safety measures said this?

Yes, they have (upthread). There are some batshit people here.

@MrsSpenserGregson Hello back, Aunt Agatha!

Slightly off topic here but throughout this thread, people keep saying it's pointless children only going back for 3 weeks, it would be better to return after 5, after Easter.

Are our holidays completely different to everyone else's?? Because where I live, the last day of term is 1 April, so that's potentially another 3 weeks & 4 days of lost time in school (and it's the lack of socialisation that none are most struggling with). So pretty much 4 weeks.

4 weeks back would make a MASSIVE difference to them. Another 8 weeks at home (which is what it will be) might just break us all.

These considered most at risk have now been vaccinated.

They really haven't.

[quote chloworm]www.ifs.org.uk/publications/15302?fbclid=IwAR1DGN8ymdxWcWxaaPICATeR7xOIKQVTweFOhgm7Lcbyvp06gRmth_igQ4c[/quote]
Surely this should be the reason for schools to open properly with measures in place that allow them to stay open?

Or are you just going to post links with no comment?

People are still comparing this to the flu