I’ve scared myself reading this. It says we’re only at the start.

[ArseInTheCoOpWindow]

thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/01/28/Virus-Changed-Get-To-Zero-Face-Catastrophe/?fbclid=IwAR1wbZssmas1bxEreDxdBMFsR1DQQ5RxK4Gl0MaYC0YRkDFBat8LVCKCVYE

😬

If you look hard enough you can find any view possible on the future of the virus. But it's much easier to follow prevailing opinion and the vast majority of epidemiologists do not support this view.

I personally didn't agree with Imperial's views earlier this week predicting another wave in the summer if we come out if lockdown too soon as they didn't adjust for seasonality. Covid is not as pervasive in the summer - as we saw here in Britain. And we need to adjust fir that with other countries' data eg. Australia which is still in summer time now.

So it's important to keep your critical faculties and not shop around for the most alarmist view - however obscure. In my opinion.

There’s every chance it could mutate itself out of virulence too

Not really. It would be more likely if there was a selection pressure to do so, as with some other illnesses. But Covid has ample opportunity to spread while mild or asymptomatic so there is no reason for that chance mutation, if it occurred, to lend an advantage. It really would be a very lucky chance if this were to happen but the chance mutations that persist are not down to chance at all, and we can predict that there is no real reason for this to happen.

@Blaggingit123

When does it end though? Are New Zealand and Australia going to vaccinate their populations and then open up (in which case, they will be in the exact same situation as us re mutations). Or are they going to stay closed for what, 5 years, 10 years, forever? I can’t really see that happening. At least our policy has a clear end, there’s doesn’t.

Yes, pretty much. Vaccinate, then open up: mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1362057348232142852

All the more reason to get the vaccine as soon as possible and stay home in the meantime to slow the mutation rate as much as possible so the vaccine still matches the virus!

At least our policy has a clear end, there’s doesn’t.

You asked questions then announced the answer! Their policy does have an end and it doesn't have a middle where over a hundred thousand people die. It is madness to pretend they're not in an enviable position!

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

No I’m English! But l do think this virus is a ‘shapeshifter’ and will evade any vaccines eventually. Then what do we do? What if it evolves further into a more deadly strain that evades the vaccine?

Any virus could

Viruses mutate. They always have, always will. Its called evolution. Nothing to be scared of.

OP how do you come across this stuff? Do you spend your days searching for obscure opinions of random people to make yourself feel worse? Then even worse than that you think oh I know I will post it on mumsnet and scare some more people who take everything they read at face value even if it’s completely illogical and just someone’s opinion!

OP, there are a lot of people out there with a lot of opinions about Covid. Even the most informed of them aren’t necessarily right and he definitely isn’t in that category.

There’s a lot of misinformation there and a clear agenda. Plus he’s talking about Canada.

If it’s any comfort, the U.K. are doing what he is advocating for Canada. Using the oxford vaccine and focusing on rapid rollout.

Well he's not wrong is he?

If you wanted to help the virus evolve to evade existing vaccines, you couldn't do much better than to create an experimental population of half-vaccinated individuals then start opening up Lockdown and let the variants of concern and the new recombinant virus have at it.

@ConeHat

Viruses mutate. They always have, always will. Its called evolution. Nothing to be scared of.

Why do they call them "variants of concern" then, when they evolve, spread, become dominant/learn to "escape antibodies"/kill more people faster?

I think we all have to accept that this is a worry and although Boris is nice enough...he may not be the best man to steer us out of this mess. I have little confidence in his abilities to save us all.

Herd immunity has always rang alarm bells for me I couldn't understand why we didn't close our borders when Lombardy ski trips returned. Hindsight is all too easy. Surely the scientific bigwigs could see this coming though. We would have accepted a harsh lockdown in March.

The new variants might have no competitive edge over the already dominant “Kent variant”.

This could explain their apparently slow spread and could mean that by a grim twist of fate our more transmissible strain that’s caused us such a massive increase in hospitalisations and deaths, might actually be helping to keep these new variants at bay.

The other reason to be cheerful is that the vaccines being deployed have a good chance of preventing severe disease and death from these new variants.

So, even if they were to rise in numbers, the progress we’ve made in vaccination so far is likely to reduce their impact.

And new vaccines, already under development should be available by autumn which as the virus continues to evolve, is when we’ll likely need them ahead of next winter.

@PrincessNutNuts

Well he's not wrong is he?

If you wanted to help the virus evolve to evade existing vaccines, you couldn't do much better than to create an experimental population of half-vaccinated individuals then start opening up Lockdown and let the variants of concern and the new recombinant virus have at it.

Stop reading the daily mail or guardian and winding yourself up. Definitely stop posting daily mail photos. Though that one is very pretty and bright. I think I had some hair scrunches in those colours during the 80s

Some good news for you all

The REACT study found levels of infection are being halved every 14.6 days. If the rate continues, the UK can expect to reach 1,000 cases a day by the second week of April.

Public Health England has a "high degree of confidence thatthe vaccineswill work against variants", including the Bristol variant of concern.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

No I’m English! But l do think this virus is a ‘shapeshifter’ and will evade any vaccines eventually. Then what do we do? What if it evolves further into a more deadly strain that evades the vaccine?

All viruses “shapeshift” or mutate.

I get the flu vaccine every year so maybe more aware of this.

@PrincessNutNuts

Well he's not wrong is he?

If you wanted to help the virus evolve to evade existing vaccines, you couldn't do much better than to create an experimental population of half-vaccinated individuals then start opening up Lockdown and let the variants of concern and the new recombinant virus have at it.

I don’t understand this. The worst thing to do at this stage would be to start encouraging large groups / gatherings of unvaccinated people. So we are sending schools back. I really don’t get it.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/17/exclusive-parents-test-children-covid-twice-week/

Plans coming together for parents to test secondary school children at home - with schools only administering the first lateral flow test at the term start.

Wrong thread, just ignore it.

Lateral flow tests aren’t accurate.

It depends what you are trying to achieve. They aren't very accurate for an individual wanting to know if they have sub clinical coronavirus but they pick up 90% of cases that are likely to transmit. In a packed environment and with an eye on onward transmission, it's a very useful tool. But, like I say, I accidentally posted the link on this board.

www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/lateral-flow-rapid-covid-tests-pick-up-90-of-cases-study-finds/

Well if you get your news from opinion pieces you deserve to be scared shitless

Fyi, op. That link I posted is for a publication that has been going for 60 years and written for gps. It's not as entertaining as listening to a sweary Canadian in a cowboy hat who usually writes about gas and oil but it's still worth a read.

😆 @FourTeaFallOut