I’ve scared myself reading this. It says we’re only at the start.

[ArseInTheCoOpWindow]

thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/01/28/Virus-Changed-Get-To-Zero-Face-Catastrophe/?fbclid=IwAR1wbZssmas1bxEreDxdBMFsR1DQQ5RxK4Gl0MaYC0YRkDFBat8LVCKCVYE

😬

A 'shapeshifting' virus. Isn't that like every single virus ever known?

They all mutate. Everything mutates. WE mutate.

Justin Beiber says keep calm

Shape shifter, heard it all now

It’s one view. Designed to sell.

We will need to nimble creating new vaccines though

I thought Mr Valance indicated that Covid-19 seemed to mutate slower than influenza viruses.

The vaccination research scientists are already working on booster jabs and doing alternative research to try and find a universal jab that will protect against future mutations.

So I am not sure if we are quite doom and gloom just at the start really.

Well hey guys, thanks for the support.

‘Bore off’
‘Spreading fear’

I just put it on because it freaked me out a bit. Not to spread fear. That’s all.

What do you want from this thread then? More hysteria and panic?

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]A Nature poll showed more experts said that the elimination approach he advocates was unlikely or very unlikely to be successful than those who said it was likely or very likely:
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2[/quote]
It doesn't say that though @CoffeeandCroissant

It says that 89% of scientists (immunologists, virologists, infectious disease experts) think that it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic. I would assume that they are making that judgement (as I would) based on knowledge that it would be very difficult to eradicate the virus (it is very difficult to eradicate any virus, especially when infection and vaccination do not provide sterilising immunity) BUT they are also basing that on the current strategies and understand that they won't lead to eradication. The question asks whether they think that is the likely outcome not whether they think that eradication is possible.

The second question asks if they think that it is likely that some regions could eliminate the virus. The split is 39% very likely/likely and 52% unlikely/very unlikely so 3:4. It's worth a shot, IMO.

It is concerning that we are already seeing variants that are resistant to some antibodies. The nightmare would be a variant, like HIV, that can evade the immune system, making it very difficult to produce a vaccine. The other issue is that we really need to slow down the mutation rate by reducing case numbers. The article is right, we are in a race between vaccines and new variants.

I am starting to think that zero COVID is the best aim. A few more months of disruption would be worth it if it meant avoiding years of disruption. Realistically, with the evolution of new variants, we may well be back in the same place next winter. Although we don't have a huge amount of data yet on the new variants, the efficacy of the vaccines against them, nor the effect of the vaccine on transmission, we probably have enough for it to be worth modelling the different strategies.

@UncleBrynsMySpaceFriend

So you thought you'd scare everyone else, who may just about be hanging on, by sharing it

Yep🤦‍♀️

It's an opinion piece from Canada and the second sentence uses the word 'fuck' - not sure it's the most reliable news source tbh.

It doesn't say that though @CoffeeandCroissant

The second question asks if they think that it is likely that some regions could eliminate the virus. The split is 39% very likely/likely and 52% unlikely/very unlikely so 3:4.

It does say that though

"more experts said that the elimination approach he advocates was unlikely or very unlikely to be successful than those who said it was likely or very likely" - 52% is more than 39%

hamstersarse

What do you want from this thread then? More hysteria and panic?

Less sneering? It scared me, that’s why l put it up😊.

Leaving now though.

There's reports of an anti-microbial coating for textiles that kills 95% of viruses within a few minutes and destroys all traces within four hours. Something like that is going to be another game-changer, although wearing masks in public will probably be with us for the long haul. I read it in The Times, but can't find it again to link.

I thought Mr Valance indicated that Covid-19 seemed to mutate slower than influenza viruses

It also depends on case numbers though @frozendaisy

If a viable mutation occurs in flu viruses in 1 in a million infections but in 1 in 2 million infections for COVID-19, the rate of mutation for flu is higher. However, if there are only 1 million people infected with flu every month, only 1 viable mutation will occur every month but there are 20 million people infected with COVID-19 in a month, there will be 5 new viable mutations in the same period of time. The rate of mutation might be slower, but the number of new mutations could be higher if there are more cases of COVID-19 than flu.

It’s not just vaccines that’ll help with all this. It’s treatments which are improving constantly. If you want to bring HIV into this, treatment is so good now it becomes undetectable in the body & you cannot pass it on. There is also a drug that means a non HIV person cannot physically catch it. Frankly, the science there is bloody incredible.

Treatment for any variant will get better with time. The vaccines will lower transmission. A level of death has to be accepted like we do any illness. There will be vaccine boosters, some years we’ll get it right & some wrong. Much like flu. Every single scientist I’ve ever heard speak has said it mutates slower than flu. Yet we do quite well protecting people with the flu jab..

We won’t do zero covid because we cannot afford to leave our borders closed. We are an international hub. Aus/NZ are not. Long term they also cannot keep their borders closed. But covid will become epidemic & life will go on.

Weren't shapeshifters in Fringe.

I have made the conscious decision not to care anymore. From april, I am seeing whoever I can and I am using my own brain.

What thought processes will your brain be using other then the not caring, if that's even a thought process.

an idiot who didn't do his homework so made lots of mistakes; such as confusing "more transmissible" with "more deadly".

Are you referring to the part where he explains how many more deaths come with increased transmissibility rather then increased virulence?

@itallworkedouthorribly

I have made the conscious decision not to care anymore. From april, I am seeing whoever I can and I am using my own brain.

What thought processes will your brain be using other then the not caring, if that's even a thought process.

Using my brain to keep myself safe to a degree, so washing my hands, meeting people outside, seeing those who are vaccinated. I am getting my life back to some normality while accepting that risk now has to be part of daily life. I am not going to be sitting indoors while everyone I know works (I am on mat leave), chats to colleagues, sends their kids to school, has bubbles, and i am miserable and alone, again. I am not prepared to just do what I am told and put myself in a deeper hole. I have done my bit and reached my breaking point.

@orangenasturtium

I thought Mr Valance indicated that Covid-19 seemed to mutate slower than influenza viruses

It also depends on case numbers though @frozendaisy

If a viable mutation occurs in flu viruses in 1 in a million infections but in 1 in 2 million infections for COVID-19, the rate of mutation for flu is higher. However, if there are only 1 million people infected with flu every month, only 1 viable mutation will occur every month but there are 20 million people infected with COVID-19 in a month, there will be 5 new viable mutations in the same period of time. The rate of mutation might be slower, but the number of new mutations could be higher if there are more cases of COVID-19 than flu.

Thank you for this I wasn't trying to be an expert.

I was just trying to offer a glimmer of light that for us at least it doesn't seem as doom and gloom as Mr Canadian blogger expert wants us to believe.

To be honest, OP, we may not be approaching the end of this, but let's not forget that Covid is only one way to die. We need to protect our population from the other ways, too.

@Blaggingit123

When does it end though? Are New Zealand and Australia going to vaccinate their populations and then open up (in which case, they will be in the exact same situation as us re mutations). Or are they going to stay closed for what, 5 years, 10 years, forever? I can’t really see that happening. At least our policy has a clear end, there’s doesn’t.

I came on to say that - you beat me to it! New Zealand/Australia are going to have to open their borders at some point in the future!

I confess that I missed the "more" in your post @CoffeeandCroissant! But it is still an overstatement. 42% of experts who expressed an opinion think it is very likely/likely that some regions could eliminate SARS-CoV-2, which is why I feel the UK should be considering that option.

HIV is a different beast @MoirasRoses. It isn't so easily transmissible and there were effective ways to prevent transmission before treatments were available and without a vaccine. The only effective way to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (without effective treatment or a vaccine) is lockdown, which is a whole lot worse than wearing a condom.

There’s every chance it could mutate itself out of virulence too

Well, I'm seriously gonna run out of things to watch on Netflix soon so it had better NOT be just the start!