Will cases rise when schools go back ?

[DinosaurDiana]

The obvious answer is yes, but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again ?

Logically yes but aren't schools testing?

DS2 has been in school, (SEN). They are tested in the morning before they are allowed to enter the main school building. It's an independent though. Is this not happening in state schools?

Is this not happening in state schools?

Certainly not in state primary.

Only staff testing in my primary school.

We've actually had more bubbles burst and cases amongst children in the period from January to now than we did from September to December.
We're running at about 25% of students in.

By the end of Easter hols, we should be about 35-40% vaccinated, making a serious dent in the r number.

Remember the second doses. They will slow down the rate of increase in the vaccinated numbers dramatically

Only staff testing in my state secondary.

That's the sort of thing that worries me, sherry, someone posted a link on another thread about how 5 schools in Bristol have had to close completely since Jan due to covid, even though only open to keyworker/vulnerable. Presumably the new variant spreading.

I assume this data is being collected and analysed as part of the school re-opening planning(!)

There was some discussion in government about masks, not sure what the conclusion was but it has gone very quiet.

@WhenSheWasBad

I am always on the side of caution but we do need to trust the vaccines

I do trust the vaccines. But children and most of their parents will not have received a vaccine by 8th March.
Way more sensible to wait until after Easter. If we let it spread again it will just lead to bubbles bursting and pupils being sent home again.

But the children and majority of their parents still wont get the vaccine until September.

@DBML

I’m swaying between being absolutely sick of lockdown and thinking it’s too soon to end lockdown.

I think if I have to start going out anyway, that’ll signal the end of my efforts full stop.

Yes they will, much more so with attitudes like this.

People want schools fully open 'won't anyone think if the children' wail moan...

But they aren't prepared to continue to restrict other social contact once they are. Those of us without children are prepared to continue with other restrictions so chikdten can return to school, why aren't some parents???

FFS

I would love my children to go back to school on the 8th in rotas. I actually think that would be better for them in terms of mental health and educationally too - rather than from 100% home to 100% in school.

Starting with a few days in at first would help them ease back in and might also give the impression (even if false) that the adults in charge have a clue. Because even my yr 6 DD1 can see that going from nothing to all in with no safety measures against airborne spread doesn't make the slightest bit of sense.

They didn't do that in summer last year - she went back to socially distanced half class sizes then (and the whole school was back in, they had a few extra TAs and did it - wonderful school team that they are).

When they went back in Sept she tried to social distance for about a week or two - which caused her a lot of stress - then came home and declared 'Mum, social distancing is over, it's just not possible'. She also said the teachers started out saying 'social distance where possible' but given the classroom size means it's not possible, they soon gave up even saying that - what's the point of repeating a phrase that is self-evidently impossible? They might as well have been telling children to 'fly where possible'. Personally I think it's actually quite harmful to mental health to be gaslighted by adults into trying to do the impossible. So I think the teachers were very sensible to give up on that.

I think it's quite harmful to children's mental health to one week be told 'you can only see one friend socially distanced, outside, for exercise' and then 'come on in to this tiny classroom for 6 hours with 30 other children'.

@noblegiraffe

That's the sort of thing that worries me, sherry, someone posted a link on another thread about how 5 schools in Bristol have had to close completely since Jan due to covid, even though only open to keyworker/vulnerable. Presumably the new variant spreading.

I assume this data is being collected and analysed as part of the school re-opening planning(!)

There was some discussion in government about masks, not sure what the conclusion was but it has gone very quiet.

I assume this data is being collected and analysed as part of the school re-opening planning(!)

You are being facetious I assume??

Yes probably, but that’s if they all go back at once, not sure yet, and also what SD will be in place. And it’s another reason to open up slowly, so we see a rise, get that contained and down, then open up something else, see a rise, get that lowered, open up the next thing etc etc etc

Vaccinations will help, but only when the whole country has been done, they are aiming for August/September that

"Most are arguing for a staggered return or waiting till after Easter. Let the numbers get really low, it gives us a better chance of a more normal spring and summer."

I work in Early Years and childcare - I'm a childminder. I've worked all through all the lockdowns. Early Years and keyworker childcare has been open during this one.

I am extremely concerned about the threat of schools reopening too early. They will open for those few weeks, just long enough to spread the virus nicely and get the numbers up, then they will close for Easter, leaving us to cope with the fall out.

I'm very angry at the lack of consideration and care for my sector. Over 2000 childcare providers closed in January alone: 888 were childminders.
At this rate, there won't be a childcare sector left!

@IloveJKRowling

We should have 6 year olds replace the Govt, they've got FAR more sense!

@Honeybobbin schools are opening in Monday in Wales and for some years in Scotland.

I think it's probably the case that if you randomly took a GCSE level biology class, they'd have done a better job of managing this pandemic.

But then, at that age, most children aren't firmly wedded to an ideology that puts their own self-interest and profit above the lives of others. So...

But the children and majority of their parents still wont get the vaccine until September

That’s a fair point kingat I’m a bit of an optimist. My hope is that numbers will be lower and the (hopefully) better weather will reduce spread.

I work in Early Years and childcare

Tanith, that sector have been totally screwed over.

@WhenSheWasBad

Bear in mind that teachers more than anyone else at all, had first-hand experience of the true state of affairs in schools between September and December, when it seemed as if the whole world was sticking its fingers in their ears, shouting, "lalalalala

Yep. Pretty much all summer lots of people were saying how low Covid levels were. And of course schools should open as normal, it’ll be fine.

Teachers pointed out that children are brilliant at spreading viruses, and there is no way to socially distance in schools.

Schools went back almost almost as normal (bubbles of 250 and mask wearing in corridors).
Well it wasn’t fine. We had a massive peak and now have a more infectious variant.

Roll on to February, once again people are stating that numbers are low (which they aren’t). And saying school should just reopen and it will be fine.

Trouble is there is a new more infectious variant, and most children and the parents they live with haven’t been vaccinated. There’s a very strong possibility that it won’t be fine.

This isn’t me arguing for school to “never reopen” just saying we should wait till after Easter. Let the case numbers get seriously low and more people vaccinated.

But it can't be a blanket approach. In my district and surrounding districts there were 0-2 cases in week over thousands of people. Why are schools closed here?

Your message reads a bit like kids were to blame for the 'variant'.......

Your message reads a bit like kids were to blame for the 'variant'

No one is to blame for viruses mutating. I blame the government for their crap handling of Covid. Thank goodness they’ve done well with vaccines.

But it can't be a blanket approach. In my district and surrounding districts there were 0-2 cases in week over thousands of people. Why are schools closed here

We had this argument over summer. “Cases are low where I live - why can’t I.....”

It’s a virus. It spreads, as we saw just because it’s low now where you live, that doesn’t mean it will stay low.

As another poster has pointed out. I’m probably being far too optimistic. I just think we should wait till after Easter till we start to open schools up again.
Hopefully Covid numbers will be extremely low by then.

Of course they will. Viruses thrive only on people mixing, so more people mixing = more cases.

Hopefully as vaccines get round, there will be fewer people requiring hospital treatment - and eventually (hopefully!) contacts of known cases won't have to isolate as it'll be a self limiting illness, week off school, done.

A huge problem with schools being back is the fact that parents still have to anticipate childcare issues when bubbles burst. We need to get away from that ASAP.

@HasaDigaEebowai

Logically yes but aren't schools testing?

DS2 has been in school, (SEN). They are tested in the morning before they are allowed to enter the main school building. It's an independent though. Is this not happening in state schools?

Its happening in high schools for pupils. Not sure about primary. Only for teachers?

Its happening in high schools for pupils

Is it? Can you explain the plan-are secondary aged children going to be tested once before they start back? Or weekly or both?

There is no LFD testing for primary-aged children.

Secondary kids who are in at the moment at my school are currently being offered tests weekly (as are staff) but I can't see that logistically continuing when schools open fully, we've only got about 5% in.

There was supposed to be mass testing of secondary pupils before return, and then weekly testing of staff only. The daily testing of close contacts idea has been 'paused' (binned).