Will cases rise when schools go back ?

[DinosaurDiana]

The obvious answer is yes, but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again ?

Yes they will go up. And teachers are yet to be vaccinated. I think we should wait til after Easter.

Thrashed it out with nellodee, naughti

The assumption was R is close to 1, which it is, and the impact of opening schools on R is large, which it is.

"I’m really hoping you’re not a maths teacher."

That's a strange thing to say without explanation.

It really is one of those does a bear shit in the woods questions. Also love someone saying virus won't mutate into a more contagious version that is more effective at infecting younger people and giving higher viral loads when that has already happened.

No to lockdown

"Yes, but a rise in cases does not necessarily mean a rise in death or hospitalisation".

Didn't Boris say Monday that 60% of those in ITU are in the groups that won't be vaccinated by 8th March? For me this is a real worry. Children take covid home to their parents. Lots of parents are in the non vaccinated categories, what happens when they need hospitalisation?

@TheHoneyBadger you said ‘cause a worse illness in children’

The Kent strain is more transmissible amongst all ages. If the numbers of cases in children have gone up it’s because they have gone up in the population as a whole. Not because the virus is affecting kids proportionately more.

Nice backtracking though.

If you scaremonger you only reduce the impact of your arguments.

Not because the virus is affecting kids proportionately more.

Wasn't there some research the Kent strain was causing worse illness in children, ie worse symptoms and children becoming more sick. Off to Google now...

[quote Delatron]@TheHoneyBadger you said ‘cause a worse illness in children’

The Kent strain is more transmissible amongst all ages. If the numbers of cases in children have gone up it’s because they have gone up in the population as a whole. Not because the virus is affecting kids proportionately more.

Nice backtracking though.

If you scaremonger you only reduce the impact of your arguments.[/quote]
Please actually quote what you're referring to that I said. It avoids confusion

@TheHoneyBadger

Yes of course they will rise. Worse though will be again allowing mutations that are more effective at infecting children and young people and result in higher contagion and viral loads in adults creating worse illness in younger and not previously thought vulnerable groups.

I really hope science will guide us not anti lockdown freedom fighters.

All presented as fact.

That sentence refers to the adults becoming more ill, not the children. Parents of children at school are in the 20-50 ish age group, younger than a lot of those hospitalised so far, but hospitalisations in that age group are rising.

I can't find what I read about the Kent strain so may have mixed up articles.

So I didn't say what you accused me of at all. I said better at infecting children. Best not to put quote marks around things that aren't quotes if you're genuinely concerned about credibility.

Yes the googling went well didn’t it?

And that’s what is so frustrating about this site. People read misrepresented shit in the media then quote it as fact in here.

Could you acknowledge you were wrong and twisted what I said now it's there in black and white?

My bag, it’s a bit of a garbled sentence to be fair.
Lots of ‘younger’ in there that I took to mean children since you had already mentioned adults.

Still presented as fact when you have no idea what will happen in the future.

Of course there will be mutations. All viruses mutate. Unless you have a crystal ball you have no idea how it will mutate.

I think I was pretty upfront about being unsure and going to find out. I'm still pretty convinced I read something about the Kent strain making young people more ill than previous strains. I just, quite frankly, can't be arsed spending an evening finding it.

That Warwick study is a perfect lesson in misrepresented news.

Were you thinking of this, Herc?

"He said that no evidence yet showed the new variant to be more dangerous to children, but he noted that in January Israel had opened its first special covid-19 intensive care unit for children, admitting four or five children."

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n383

That yet and but sound cautious.

Ah you can’t be arsed @HercwasanEnemyofEducation

I had a look too. Couldn’t find anything!

Less so if they vaccinate the teachers!

No evidence yet. Means exactly that. No evidence.

Yes noble that was it, the intensive care unit part is what I was searching but couldn't find. Your Google skills are far superior.

As you all were.

Schools open = cases rising. Cases rising is probably not OK until more people are vaccinated.

@DownstairsMixUp I know it amazes me.

They won't be happy until we see in a communist state and only let out once a week for essentials and EVERYTHING IS CLOSED FOR FUCKING EVER

*see

*are

Apologies

@Delatron

No evidence yet. Means exactly that. No evidence.

It can mean that there isn't enough data to show that something is statistically significant, not that enough evidence has been amassed and nothing points to any concern.