Will cases rise when schools go back ?

[DinosaurDiana]

The obvious answer is yes, but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again ?

Maybe cases will rise but most people will have minor illnesses as those at more at risk will have been vaccinated. We need to get back to normality nothing is without risk

Opening anything up will cause an increase to some degree, however, it doesn't mean we shouldn't open up. It's a balance of harms - school closures cause harm. We have the vaccine and treatments now to mitigate Covid risk. Hopefully schools opening will create just a small and manageable increase in cases where the benefits will outweigh the risks. I suspect this will be the case and very much support the opening of schools, ideally all schools, but all primary at the very least.

Yes, undoubtedly cases will rise when schools open.

The reason the pm is being uncharacteristically cautious is presumably this: mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1358762039569694725?s=20

Tldr: we are moving into a risky phase and we need to not fuck it up.

Sadly hospitalisations/deaths in the short term are not the only issue.

But we have an escape route. Don't lose hope!

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n383

After reading that, definitely.

Yes. More mixing will always have that effect.

And sadly you have an attitude from a significant amount of population that if they are mixing in school they can mix out of it.

So 30 in class all mixing. Those 30 then mixing in households of a further 2-3 people means you have 150 people mixing who then mix at work, siblings in other bubbles etc.

It cycles. Cases rise, restrictions are imposed, cases fall, restrictions are eased, cases rise again. Hopefully vaccinations will help stop the cycle, but I think it will take a while. I heard a professor from Imperial was predicting another rise this summer.

Cases, yes.
Deaths, unlikely.
Hospitalisations, maybe slightly but not a lot.

Overall I think we need to move to reopen schools, cases are back at Sept levels. But there's an argument for not opening them all at once.

It doesn’t matter as long as hospitalisation and deaths stay low
Must remember this in future and send DC’s to school with a sick bug.

Yes, if we open schools exactly as before to all children with no masks allowed in classrooms, cases will rise rapidly.

I don’t know why a pp thinks all people over 50 will be vaccinated in the next 3 weeks as well?!

Cases, probably yes, hospitalisations and deaths, probably not.

We need to learn to live with Covid. And our children absolutely need to return to school, even if cases rise.

@Honeybobbin Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce this afternoon that the youngest children (equivalent to English infant schools) are going back next Monday. I think Wales too, but honestly not sure. England aren't going to be able to vaccinate most over 50s by 8th March, and certainly not in enough time for the vaccination to offer protection by then (you need 2 - 3 weeks after the vaccination).

Yes our local schools are having to isolate bubbles and the same with nursery’s. Lots of covid cases with the key workers only

And our children absolutely need to return to school, even if cases rise.

But also it would be madness to send them back to school without improving mitigation measures in schools to lessen the impact.

Must remember this in future and send DC’s to school with a sick bug.

How on earth is a sick bug (where child vomits and feels awful) comparable with Covid (which for most kids is asymptomatic or very mild)?!

@Heatheronthehill

Yes but even if cases rise, it shouldn’t matter as much if hospitalisation & deaths stay low?

Unfortunately not this simple.

I know it is frustratingly slow, but we are moving forwards.

But we mustn't mess it up. It is important for as many people as possible to try to understand what the scientists are saying, it helps stop the frustration at the process.

Yes cases will rise. There is no way that schools can go back to normal capacity and be safe.

We don't want to undermine the vaccination program by allowing pools of unmitigated covid spread. Infection rates need to be kept low everywhere for it to have the best chance of success.

Yes our local schools are having to isolate bubbles and the same with nursery’s. Lots of covid cases with the key workers only

And yet cases overall in the UK continue to decline rapidly.

Unfortunately I think many people will be willing to risk the whole vaccine programme simply because they have run out of patience and it is complicated to explain vaccine escape etc

Yes, cases and the R rate will rise. The most vulnerable are vaccinated and whilst we might get more cases, we have to assume that they won’t translate into out of control hospital admissions and deaths. This is because it’s now more likely for covid to spread in the under 50s or those without vulnerabilities as they are either increasingly vaccinated or soon to be vaccinated.

If schools in England do reopen on 8th March then most will only do so for a fortnight or three weeks before closing for Easter. That timing should also help.

Yes cases will rise. There is no way that schools can go back to normal capacity and be safe.

We need to differentiate between 1) cases rising and 2) this actually leading to hospitalisation and death i.e. being 'unsafe'

And they are only back for a few weeks before a two week ‘firebreak’ for Easter

Opening after Easter would help a lot more, five more weeks of pushing it down for only three weeks more home schooling.

I don't understand why so many people are saying that cases will rise but deaths won't. How does that work? Surely if cases rise, deaths will also rise. Not being a dick. Just genuinely want to know.