Will cases rise when schools go back ?

[DinosaurDiana]

The obvious answer is yes, but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again ?

Agree. @DownstairsMixUp and @tonystarksrighthand

Right @noblegiraffe

I think it’s best to see what actual evidence comes out before scaremongering.

@Delatron Do you think cases will rise when schools open more widely?

I think it’s best to see what actual evidence comes out before scaremongering

And given that it's not clear, probably best to wait to see what actual evidence comes out before hurtling back into opening things up.

Which is hopefully what Boris is doing, despite a lot of pressure from certain factions.

Cases in school tend to reflect cases in the community.
We don’t know what the plans for return are yet so they could well be staggered. Schools are currently open to many pupils (50% in our schools).

We have vaccinations and they are going well. The balance tips once the vulnerable are vaccinated.

It sounds like everything else will stay shut for a while to protect the schools opening. Far better than last time when the pubs were open before the schools.

Cases in school tend to reflect cases in the community.
Chicken and egg that.

The balance tips when enough people are vaccinated to not need hospitalisation. Currently a higher percentage of those in ICU are in groups not prioritised for the vaccine.

Primary schools have much higher attendance now than secondary. 5%ish nationally at secondary, not sure I'd want to rush those students all back in on 8th March with the same guidance as September.

@HerwasanEnemyofEducation was it this you were thinking of - the post-Covid disease in children, mainly seen in areas with the Kent variant?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/05/up-to-100-uk-children-a-week-hospitalised-with-rare-post-covid-disease

Dreading that we will soon be back to ‘schools open’ which in reality means kids constantly out of school isolating again and again like last year if they all return when the r rate is too high.

I know what you mean starry. We've had 2 bubbles burst since 5th January. Who knows how many there'll be if they're all in!

Yes. Just like they will when everything else opens bk up.

@DownstairsMixUp

Jesus Christ 80% of mumsnet are creaming their knickers being in lockdown. You can just feel the panic from some posters that life might be going back to normal

Exactly what I was thinking. Some people just love the drama of it too and for some reason keep picking schools over and over and over, posting the same stuff on every thread in a hope the gov are reading this and take this as peoples views. Analysing every graph, every number and every word said on the news and working themselves up into this panic. But, if you actually leave your house and see real people you would see most are really not that scared and are just happy to accept the tiny risk, the same as every other risk in life.

My son is still at home but I know his school has had a case last week and they’ve closed one of their bubbles so it’s not as if there is no cases in schools at the moment

@Figgygal

My son is still at home but I know his school has had a case last week and they’ve closed one of their bubbles so it’s not as if there is no cases in schools at the moment

Our local primary had to close for two weeks this term due to an outbreak in the kw/v groups.

We had a case in my school. There are certainly cases happening with much smaller class sizes.

When they start the lateral flow tests in secondary I can just see it meaning more children out of school than in if community cases are still too high.

I'm not looking forward to the bubble hokey kokey either. Nightmare in secondary when you've got half in and half out.

What I really want to avoid is another lockdown. If adding a few weeks now means a 'normal' summer then I'm all for it.

Some people just love the drama of it too and for some reason keep picking schools over and over and over, posting the same stuff on every thread in a hope the gov are reading this and take this as people's views.

I'm also surprised about the number of posters, possibly teachers, who seem so keen to keep schools closed as long as possible.

I know theory of bubbles in schools and other setting but I believe they are something of an illusion as people - adults and children move from settings ie back to family which means it is not a bubble. I honestly think the illusion then makes people more frightens of returning to normal.

@Heatheronthehill

Yes but even if cases rise, it shouldn’t matter as much if hospitalisation & deaths stay low?

A lot of those hospitalised were a younger age group according to the media, so no, there will still be cases.

Cases will rise. It will take one child in a school with covid and the infection will spread to parents, teachers. Its a new mutation. I think people forget this.

Yes.
Because people like my SIL will take it as okay to start alternating with friends again to have kids sleepovers so the parents can go out to the pub/for a meal (if open at the same time) as SD doesn’t matter when the kids are in the same class. Also apparently means you can have any of the other 30kids parents round for a drunken evening in your house and hug etc.
So yes.

Probably. But kids need to go to school so 🤷🏼‍♀️

@Newpuppymummy

Yes they will go up. And teachers are yet to be vaccinated. I think we should wait til after Easter.

I think so too.

I also think they should wait until after Easter when many more of the vulnerable and over 50s are vaccinated (and hopefully school staff too). And look at what additional safety measures can be put in place at that point too. I would be very happy with a blended approach initially and see how it goes.

Yes as before time and time again repeatedly.

Hmm, I think we can afford to go back in some way before Easter, because of the Easter holidays offering a natural firebreak. Exponential growth starts slowly.

It will also give a chance to see how it goes, knowing that the holidays will give a break to reflect and review, where after Easter there's a much longer wait till half term (which is shorter) if it goes badly.

Yes they will but hopefully the vulnerable will be vaccinated .
I also think when everyone goes back to work in offices etc cases will rise but hopefully with so many vaccinations done we might be okay