Will cases rise when schools go back ?

[DinosaurDiana]

The obvious answer is yes, but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again ?

The teachers at my kids primary are getting lateral flow tests (which are only about 50% accurate). I'd say it's better than nothing but I'm not totally sure that's true if it gives a false sense of security or causes people to ignore symptoms and go into work on the basis of a negative test.

Pupils are not being tested in my high school. Only the teachers are having tests.

Here's a new and cautionary tale about testing not actually providing protection - an event where the participants were tested twice before attending and then daily during the event, all negative, actually was a superspreader event: www.diamandis.com/blog/false-sense-security

And that was with PCR testing, not lateral flow.

Proper mitigation measures are needed to stop the spread, not assuming that testing will pick up and remove cases in time for lack of precautions to be ok.

Proper mitigation measures are needed to stop the spread, not assuming that testing will pick up and remove cases in time for lack of precautions to be ok

Yes, this is so obviously true. We've always known the false negative rate is high, even for PCR, particularly if you test too early. A lot of people seem to be in denial though.

TheReluctantPhoenix
"There are only 3 more weeks of school until a long holiday, which is another firebreak"

If we don't set up the fire, we would not need a firebreak. Are these three weeks worth of risk?

And after Easter, it will be ‘is it really worth going back? Let’s wait until May half term.’

@Letseatgrandma

Its happening in high schools for pupils

Is it? Can you explain the plan-are secondary aged children going to be tested once before they start back? Or weekly or both?

There is no LFD testing for primary-aged children.

Im in Scotland. I just received the consent. However it is currently just for senior pupils here from S4 upwards. I cant find how often they are doing it. Just consent that is meant to be completed today. I don't have children that are in those years so it doesnt affect me. I know that teachers/staff can get tested. Its twice weekly for them in primary so maybe it will be the same for the high school.

And after Easter, it will be ‘is it really worth going back? Let’s wait until May half term

So ram everyone back far too soon because otherwise we might never reopen schools?

No one is arguing to never open society again. I want this to be the last lockdown. I don’t want to open schools again only to have to send year groups home.

After Easter seems sane. But it will depend on the data. Not on whether people have “had enough” of lockdown. I’ve got bored primary age kids at home too. I’m working from home whilst trying to do a full time job. It’s shit.
But I don’t want to fuck up summer just to send my kids to school for 3 weeks before Easter. Makes zero sense to me.

After Easter seems sane. But it will depend on the data. Not on whether people have “had enough” of lockdown. I’ve got bored primary age kids at home too. I’m working from home whilst trying to do a full time job. It’s shit.
But I don’t want to fuck up summer just to send my kids to school for 3 weeks before Easter. Makes zero sense to me.

Totally agree about being desperate for as normal a summer as we can manage and not heading into another lockdown.

I'd have exam years back at secondary to give staff a start on the assessment process. Also ks1 back as they seem to struggle the most remotely.

Then phase primary back, possibly even set days for ks2 non KW kids until Easter. Then use Easter to see what happens to cases.

I would like to know why the Warwick University paper was all over the press and yet this research from the CMMID hasn't been. It states:
"We measured social contacts when schools were either open or closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number. Our results suggest that reopening all schools could increase R from an assumed baseline of 0.8 to between 1.0 and 1.5, or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone."
It is still to be peer reviewed.
cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/comix-schools.html

Very interesting lonely

We have a bubble isolating for the whole of half term. I know there's not much they can do over half term anyway, but I do feel sorry for them (whilst appreciating that the most important thing is that everyone is well).

Of course. Not just through the kids passing it between households, but the parents nattering at the gates and everyone going to the park after school.
Before lockdown both the school I work in and my DC’s school requested that parents wear masks on pick up/drop off if possible, but many didn’t.

Personally I don’t see the point of sending them back for 3 weeks for them then to be off again for Easter. They may as well just go back after and allow for more time in reduction of cases and effectiveness of vaccines.

As another poster said, we wouldn’t need a firebreak if we didn’t start a fire in the first place.

@chocolateisavegetable

Very interesting lonely

We have a bubble isolating for the whole of half term. I know there's not much they can do over half term anyway, but I do feel sorry for them (whilst appreciating that the most important thing is that everyone is well).

We isolated over October half term and also half of Christmas hols. It was shit. Not that people are doing much but it felt like we were wasting our holidays. And obviously you've got the fear of getting poorly.

This is my worry when we return, that we will continue to have to isolate multiple times due to burst bubbles.

Oh no sherry that's rubbish

If we don't set up the fire, we would not need a firebreak
I love this sentence!

It's not clear at all. An optimistic view is that cases will start dropping soon because of the vaccinations. This effect might be timed to become more prominent around the time schools reopen. So if we are lucky, the answer is no.

Are these three weeks worth of risk?

No. After Easter would be much better.

Let's hope the Government learns from past mistakes.

@PracticingPerson

Opening after Easter would help a lot more, five more weeks of pushing it down for only three weeks more home schooling.

It's awful

But

I agree

@Emmelina

Of course. Not just through the kids passing it between households, but the parents nattering at the gates and everyone going to the park after school. Before lockdown both the school I work in and my DC’s school requested that parents wear masks on pick up/drop off if possible, but many didn’t.

Living in another country I find this so baffling. We just drop and run, with everyone wearing masks.