Will cases rise when schools go back ?

[DinosaurDiana]

The obvious answer is yes, but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again ?

If rushed back whilst cases are high, variants many and staff and families are unvaccinated then I imagine yes we will end up back in the same situation given the ages in ICU currently.

If all schools open to all children at once, yes

Yes.

If people have the attitude that schools are open so we can all mix out of school, then will lead to rises as well.

Yes, I think so.

Yes

I’m swaying between being absolutely sick of lockdown and thinking it’s too soon to end lockdown.

I think if I have to start going out anyway, that’ll signal the end of my efforts full stop.

Yes

We have cases in kids school now even with minimal children in.

I

Cases, probably yes, hospitalisations and deaths, probably not. Nearly all over 50s will be vaccinated by then.

It is even possible that the vaccinations and other measures may be sufficient to keep cases stable, but I am not so sure.

There’s probably little question that cases will increase when schools open. It seems highly likely!

The question really is, what sort of effect will that increase have on the NHS now that 15m of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated?

Case rises aren’t necessarily an issue in this instance if they don’t lead on to huge increases of hospitalisations and deaths - hopefully the vaccine will do the heavy lifting here.

However and aside from this, case rises also become an issue when:

a) Large numbers of people are ill/bed bound for 2 weeks and can’t go to work (that includes teachers, as well as family members of the child attending school)
b) The consequence of cases in schools means they keep being closed/whole year groups are having to isolate

That last point being one of the hardest to argue against IMO.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Cases, probably yes, hospitalisations and deaths, probably not. Nearly all over 50s will be vaccinated by then.

It is even possible that the vaccinations and other measures may be sufficient to keep cases stable, but I am not so sure.

Schools are opening in less than three weeks - what do you mean the over 50s will have been vaccinated?

Schools are opening in less than three weeks - what do you mean the over 50s will have been vaccinated?

Yes, that’s not going to happen.

@Honeybobbin

No way, schools are safe. There's a report out this morning that schools don't affect transmission.

Maybe read the report in full.

but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again

This is the last lockdown we will have to endure, if we are to believe the PM.

Yes they will.

@Honeybobbin

No way, schools are safe. There's a report out this morning that schools don't affect transmission.

Are they? How do you figure that?

As it takes about 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect all 5 remaining priority groups need to be vaccinated today for vaccines to impact schools opening on 8th March

@Honeybobbin

Sorry I realise it is probably necessary to add that I am holding up my sarcasm sign.

I am desperate for schools to go back but very worried that they will shut again

Sorry, I missed that post.

Yes but even if cases rise, it shouldn’t matter as much if hospitalisation & deaths stay low?

I think it depends on wether they send ALL schools back or not. Cases are still falling 30% a week, and in certain areas (north Devon and Cornwall) weekly cases are now in single figures. I wouldn't expect it to have as much of an impact there.

I personally think there is a case for making decisions geographically. If I lived in the Bude/Torridge area or the Isle of Skye for instance I would be well fucked off having schools not fully open after half term, let alone 8th March.

Nearly all over 50s will be vaccinated by then

Schools in some parts of the UK start opening next Monday. Boy do they have their work cut out to vaccinate most over 50s before Monday.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again

This is the last lockdown we will have to endure, if we are to believe the PM.

I wouldn’t believe him to tell the truth in anything.

In all honesty I think cases will go up for a number of reasons.

Firstly, children mixing with other children and adults, and taking it back home again.
Secondly, adults mixing despite trying not to, it’s very hard not to do it.
Finally, families, quite understandably thinking ‘well they are mixing at school, why can’t they play together/have a sleepover.’