Will cases rise when schools go back ?

[DinosaurDiana]

The obvious answer is yes, but I’m wondering if we will end up in lockdown again ?

Worth listening to what this epidemiologist says about this.

@Rosesaresweet

Yes cases will rise. There is no way that schools can go back to normal capacity and be safe.

We need to differentiate between 1) cases rising and 2) this actually leading to hospitalisation and death i.e. being 'unsafe'

This type of comment ignores the concern about vaccine-resistent variants emerging in this phase (apparently most likely just as you have half the population vaccinated and half not).

Lots of people seem to be a bit fingers in ears about that issue.

The most vulnerable might only have had one vaccine too so they're not "vaccinated"
Mine isn't until the 1st May for my second vaccine and I guess a lot of others will be similar

@Rosesaresweet

Must remember this in future and send DC’s to school with a sick bug.

How on earth is a sick bug (where child vomits and feels awful) comparable with Covid (which for most kids is asymptomatic or very mild)?!

Yes, I was wondering the exact same thing. Very random comment from @Rosesaresweet.

@BlackCatShadow

I don't understand why so many people are saying that cases will rise but deaths won't. How does that work? Surely if cases rise, deaths will also rise. Not being a dick. Just genuinely want to know.

Because of the vaccination roll out. Those most likely to get ill and require hospital treatment or most likely to die will have had a vaccination now. So hospitalisations might rise yes, but not to an extent that would overwhelm the NHS.

@BlackCatShadow

I don't understand why so many people are saying that cases will rise but deaths won't. How does that work? Surely if cases rise, deaths will also rise. Not being a dick. Just genuinely want to know.

Because many, many people (arguably the majority) have Covid without needing to be in hospital or dying. Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated most of the cases will not be hospital cases or deaths, they will just be cases.

I personally think that yes, it will cause a rise. I’d prefer to write this term off, keep them closed, get cases right down whilst keeping vaccinations going quickly and getting border precautions tight. I think then we might have a chance to sustain low levels.

Also, cases will go up massively due to the amount of testing that will be done in schools. So all the asymptomatic cases that would have gone undetected will now be detected and will add to the stats.

I'm not making a positive or negative comment on this, it just is what it is.

Why they don't just start with rotas to enable social distancing and lower transmission I don't know. That's basic common sense. Lots of countries have done it and have not seen the massive rises we had.

It would solve a lot of the problems of home learning 100%, whilst not leading to nearly as fast a rise in transmission.

Also, I agree with PP - sending them back 30 to a class where they CAN'T socially distance basically means social distancing is out the window both in and out of school. It sends a message. That's what happened in Sept.

Whereas in June when DD1 went back, they were in socially distanced small classes (with extra money the whole school was back like this - it can be done in many schools with enough cash) and both kids and parents stuck to SD in and out of school.

But about 2 weeks into the Sept term it was gone - no one even tried any more. It wasn't possible in classrooms so no-one saw the point the rest of the time. There was a lot of 'they're in the same bubble' to justify this. I can't really blame people - if the government's not going to even fund the most basic safety measures it's a bit much to expect parents to be enforcing a behaviour out of school that is totally inconsistent with in school messaging.

@BlackCatShadow

I don't understand why so many people are saying that cases will rise but deaths won't. How does that work? Surely if cases rise, deaths will also rise. Not being a dick. Just genuinely want to know.

Depends in which group the cases rise. If you infected all the 20-40 year olds you would get a small number of deaths, infect all the 70-90 year olds, you would get lots more deaths. The older groups are now vaccinated, so they are less likely to die than they were on an individual level.

However, if ten times more 70-90 year olds are exposed to the virus next month, and the vaccine is 80% effective, there could still be a problem.

Epidemiologist speaking on BBC breakfast. She said that we cannot expect the outcome to be different this time if schools are kept the same as they were before.

@Honeybobbin Scotland's rate per 100,000 is lower than England's, and also lower for Wales - you can look at the rate by region here coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Scotland seem to be on track with their target for vaccination rollout, but I don't know if their target was the same as England's (if that makes sense)

Because of the vaccination roll out.
Those most likely to get ill and require hospital treatment or most likely to die will have had a vaccination now.
So hospitalisations might rise yes, but not to an extent that would overwhelm the NHS.

Thank you for explaining.

@BlackCatShadow - because the groups who have made up the majority of the deaths (the old, health care front line staff and most vunerable) have mostly already been vaccinated with the first jab. The one jab alone gives good protection (similar levels to many flu jabs, but obviously not as good as 2 jabs), and that protection kicks in after 3 weeks. We hit the majority of those top priority groups being jabbed last week, so it will be over 3 weeks by 8th March.

The next step down (those with underlying conditions and over 65s) are currently booking in for jabs this week.

The point being, if numbers rise, but those who make up the majority of deaths and hospitalisation numbers can't catch it, it doesn't really matter if those of us for whom it's a nasty bug but not life threatening get it.

The counter to this, while the elderly and those with underlying problems make up the majority of deaths / hospital admissions- a small percentage of "young healthy" people react badly to it and do get very sick /die. If the numbers of infections go up dramatically in the young healthy group, we still might see lots of deaths /hospitals over run (because say, if its 0.05% of young people who get v sick that could still be overwhelming numbers if they all get sick the same 2/3 week period).

The idea that we need safe schools is not helpful - nothing is safe normally. We don’t wrap people in cotton wool

It doesn’t really matter if case numbers go up so long as hospital admissions are low enough

It's not about schools being safe, that's an emotive word and confused the issue - it is about not unlocking too fast again and winding up in another mess.

Three weeks' more of homeschooling could make a massive difference on the case numbers.

Why they don't just start with rotas to enable social distancing and lower transmission I don't know. That's basic common sense.

Well, I think you answered your own question, JK.

Boris is sounding so very, very cautious at the moment, despite massive pressure from the right wing of his party (and the national press) to throw caution to the wind and reopen everything with wild abandon. Boris normally pays a lot of attention to this wing so the fact that there are suggestions that govt might ignore them means that there is a lot of pressure in the other direction with very good reason to be cautious.

Data about the new variant, for example.

Cases will probably rise, yes. But that doesn't make schools 'unsafe'. What does 'unsafe' even mean? Is anywhere really 'safe'?

@twelly

The idea that we need safe schools is not helpful - nothing is safe normally. We don’t wrap people in cotton wool

How about the idea of safer schools, with mitigation measures to stop rampant covid spread? What would you say to that?

@AlecTrevelyan006

It doesn’t really matter if case numbers go up so long as hospital admissions are low enough

Every so often this gets trotted out but it remains an incorrect and incomplete analysis.

There is more to it than this.

If you allow too many mutations during vaccination you risk fucking up the vaccine.

Thank you to those who explained.

My understanding is that the model used by the professor at Imperial did show a wave of deaths in the UK this summer if restrictions are lifted soon, but showed a dramatic drop in deaths if restrictions are kept in place until autumn.

It seems to be a risk, but I understand why people want kids back at school.

Here's the link if anyone is interested.

www.itv.com/news/2021-02-15/covid-what-the-future-holds-after-the-uk-emerges-from-coronavirus-lockdown

@Rosesaresweet

Cases will probably rise, yes. But that doesn't make schools 'unsafe'. What does 'unsafe' even mean? Is anywhere really 'safe'?

I want to keep the vaccine working, then nationally, yes, we will be much safer.

A nation with widely circulating virus and very high numbers of mutations is definitely unsafe. Schools contribute to that.

It seems that there are two answers to this thread.

'Yes, so we need to mitigate against that'

And

'Yes, but I don't care'.