We cannot cancel life, to preserve every life

[Slytherin]

I actually find myself agreeing with a Tory for once...we’ve given up so much and the goalposts keep moving, yes it’s an unpredictable situation, but it’s also unsustainable long term. The idea that this summer will be possibly worse than last summer makes zero sense, when we have a vaccine roll out that far exceeds any other nation (except Israel) currently.
First it was let’s get the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated, then it was let’s get the over 50s vaccinated, now we’ve got members of SAGE suggesting restrictions have to continue until everyone, including children are vaccinated and beyond, because of the possibility of new variants. Professor John Edmunds said some would have to stay “forever” last night on Peston.

We must at some point live with an element of risk. I’m in no way suggesting we lift lockdown yet, but suggesting that things won’t have much improved by the summer, is, in my opinion encroaching into dangerous territory.

The government were over promising before, now they’re under promising. There’s got to be a middle ground, people’s mental health cannot sustain this level of pessimism and not having a single thing to look forward to. Everything gets dangled like a carrot, then taken away at the last minute. It’s beyond cruel.

Then it’s the mixed messages, Matt Hancock telling us he’s going on a summer holiday to Cornwall and he’s all booked up and Grant Shapps then telling nobody to even consider booking a holiday abroad or domestically this summer.

Yes, I support restrictions to save lives and support the NHS, but I don’t support the way the government are handling this once again. And I don’t support these restrictions indefinitely, especially when the majority of the at risk groups have been vaccinated.

www.channel4.com/news/we-cannot-cancel-life-to-preserve-every-life-tory-mp-sir-charles-walker-on-lockdown?fbclid=IwAR2RnQNKwJoQ4FSBxT9oTbwbFOCTWcIU9wD9WdYkTEA2sVlJ1posWZAfmsU

No you can’t live if JSA but it was never designed to be lived off? There aren’t no jobs. There are less jobs. Jesus I’m going round in circles here. If JSA can stop someone starving to death quietly then isn’t that worth it?!

Well it should be designed to substitute a wage when you're out of work, shouldn't it?

Just less jobs? Have you forgotten that everything is closed? There are a tiny proportion of the jobs there were before.

Can’t believe I suggest JSA as a reply to someone who said but what if someone loses their job and can’t pay for electricity, water and food and I’m being treated like Satan and being sworn at

Well yes because it's clearly not enough is it. You've just said it yourself! You cannot pay for all those things on jsa, can you?

Agree with you OP, and if the whole of the population had, from last spring, stuck to the rules re masks, distancing, no unnecessary trips except for absolute essentials, then we COULD have had things very different. But it's not possible here, as there is a certain percentage of the UK population not inclined to follow rules, or who think they know better or are special. Politicians (from all parties) are also not inclined to bring in tougher rules nor to have them enforced. So we are in the state we're in.

People complied last year and cases went right down. The government handed test & trace to their mates for loadsa money and did eat out to help out and let people travel abroad. This is on the Tory party and their voters, not all political parties. People having done all this once don't want to go through this all again and again with no clear game plan.

Eg, how are we going to do zero covid strategy when case numbers are out of control and test & trace not fit for purpose. It is too late to do zero covid strategy. If that's the plan, we should be told of it. Vaccines getting us through this seemed to be the plan, but now the government seems to be moving the goalposts yet again.

Well, actually we can. You just don't want to.

I work in a place where back in the end of the summer autumn time when we were allowed To looked at me when I said I was going to a restaurant twice and grabbing a coffee as though I have 2 heads. And I was like I want to I'm not wasting away the last days of my 20s. Also what about the economy?

Now I've met a fella and I really want to go in a date with him at some point. I like him but i don't want it to fizzle out because of this situation. If it's another 5 years of this as some reports are saying. That puts my future of creating a family up the spout potentially.

I'm sick of this hollier than thou judging

Yanbu op

And it's easy to sit in judgment of others. I managed to get a job literally the week before lock down. I then had 4 months of unpaid leave. And I was lucky cos I had the money to do that. I could judge that hanging onto the remote prospect of a job was better than being able to claim 75 quid a week in benefits.
So when they asked me to return in August, damn right I got on the train and commuted an hour each way. Was it a risk to myself and others? Yes although I followed all the rules. But it had taken me long enough to find the job and the chances of finding another in current circs were remote. I started working from home after Christmas once probation had been passed.
In an ideal world as A 52 year old with responsibility for an elderly parent and dependent children it's a risk I would rather not take. But it's a balance. To chuck away a job would mean a pretty bleak few years and a poor retirement.

RaeRAe thank you but I didn't say that we should go for an even stricter lockdown. I think its interesting that we agree on my points but I would not agree with your conclusion of even stricter, albeit shorter lockdowns. Maybe a year ago but that ship has sailed and so a different approach is needed that allows the economy, schools AND social activity (lets not forget that for many people this has been a year of their primary relationships or the ability to form one being on hold) -- I shall pause while someone accuses me of killing granny for a shag. For me the vaccine is the way to live WITH this, not end it, or annihilate it and we have to accept it will be a cause of death, alongside all the others. My dad survived a heart attack a few years back. He has type 2, COPD, all the issues and has been shielding. But he has more recently been seeing my kids again and will continue to do so. He's nearly 80 and something will end his life probably in the next 5 years. He wants to live those years, not cling on desperately to an existence within his living room trying to avoid this one possibility.

The idea that the virus would go away and leave us alone if only we we’re all very, very good is not realistic. It’s basically the modern version of “God has sent the plague to punish us for our sinfulness! Repent and we’ll be saved!”

There has been a very puritanical approach the whole way through.

Look at how we have dealt with alcohol - it's still seen as a sin in the psyche of many people in our highly advanced culture!

There is definitely a god's wrath vibe to all of our measures

Children in former years didn't have all the excess today's kids do. And we worked out ok.

It's not about excess. It's about the basics of family and peer contact (no, not on zoom), education (also not on zoom), and sadly, for some, food and safety. That's what children are missing at the moment.

I don't think you did turn out OK if you can't empathise with that, but enjoy your retirement.

The main reason restrictions and T&T won’t be effective going forward is twofold:

Most people are reasonable and most adhered to guidelines as they morally wouldn’t want to be the cause of severe illness in another. Once 1-9 vax this motivation is lost (yes I know that 1% of people outside these vax groups is still a huge number if this rips through society but I’m demonstrating behaviour)

Secondly as the disease moves through younger/less affected age groups the symptoms are often very mild. T&T doesn’t have a hope as many infected won’t test. By the time it’s picked up the transmission will be extensive.

Realistically it’ll be a mix of natural infection/vax going forward. Yes new mutations are always a risk but the risk of mutations here which evade immunity are pretty high (closing borders doesn’t really help)

So balance going forward is required. Extremes are generally never the answer in life.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

No you can’t live if JSA but it was never designed to be lived off? There aren’t no jobs. There are less jobs. Jesus I’m going round in circles here. If JSA can stop someone starving to death quietly then isn’t that worth it?!

Well it should be designed to substitute a wage when you're out of work, shouldn't it?

Just less jobs? Have you forgotten that everything is closed? There are a tiny proportion of the jobs there were before.

Can’t believe I suggest JSA as a reply to someone who said but what if someone loses their job and can’t pay for electricity, water and food and I’m being treated like Satan and being sworn at

Well yes because it's clearly not enough is it. You've just said it yourself! You cannot pay for all those things on jsa, can you?

I live in London and 300 could at least get me food, water supply and gas/electric. I’d have to be frugal but I wouldn’t starve. It wouldn’t pay my rent but there are measures in place to protect tenants at the moment. There are also mortgage holidays.

I think the reason they don’t substitute it for a living wage is a lot of people would live on it forever and that would be very bad for the economy! It’s designed to not be enough but I agree we could take a leaf out of other counties’ books and increase it. But we don’t have that option right now so unfortunately have to make do with the cards we are dealt.

It is really really shit. But it won’t last forever.

It's hardly every life, though, isn't it?

Slytherin indeed.

When lockdowns are lifted too early, then you don't get much of a life back anyway.
Until most of the population is immune, it will be tough.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

job seekers allowance then in the meantime

JSA for people aged over 25 is £74.35 per week.

Are you for real?

And where do you think all the money is going to come from to keep paying JSA, UC, furlough pay etc without a functioning economy?

some very wild hypotheses on this thread.

It's not about WE MUST ALL LOCK DOWN FOREVER or WE MUST ALL BE FREE NOW and I can see a few sensible posters who seem to understand that. When there's talk about restrictions on place till autumn, nobody has said we'll be locked down till autumn. Maybe we'll have to wear masks and continue social distancing. Mass events might not take place. But kids will be back at school. We may be able to go on holidays (in this country). Some things will be opened up again. We'll be able to meet up but in small-ish groups
And then, if we're just a bit careful for a bit longer, we'll open up properly and fully, we'll have a good annual vaccination programme in place and we can move on.

I find it quite hard to see what the big problem with that is? If it was no school and nothing at all till September then yes, I'd be pretty desperate. But... that's not what's being said?

@LucilleTheVampireBat

Oh and you know absolutely nothing about me or my family or my friends and who among them is or isn't vulnerable. Nobody cared before, don't pretend any of you care now. You care about yourselves and you are hiding behind people who have always been vulnerable in order to bolster your opinion.

I care very much for my nephew who is very vulnerable, I care for DS1 who had Long Covid and has been very ill, I care for my friend who died on Monday.

I'm not hiding behind anyone. I'm disabled, elderly and vulnerable. I'm hiding indoors because it's the right thing to do.

I don't know why nobody cares about your family.

@ginghamstarfish

Agree with you OP, and if the whole of the population had, from last spring, stuck to the rules re masks, distancing, no unnecessary trips except for absolute essentials, then we COULD have had things very different. But it's not possible here, as there is a certain percentage of the UK population not inclined to follow rules, or who think they know better or are special. Politicians (from all parties) are also not inclined to bring in tougher rules nor to have them enforced. So we are in the state we're in.

No, you are very wrong. The vast vast majority of the population did stick to the rules last spring. The virus did retreat. But it was not kept out. Many people brought it in from abroad. Testing and tracing was useless. Even if every single man women and child who could possibly stay at home, did (many can’t because they need to be at work and school to help the country still function of course) this would NOT go away. It needs to be managed at a far higher level than this. It’s like saying, if the UK all does recycling, global warming will stop. Just no.

I find it quite hard to see what the big problem with that is? If it was no school and nothing at all till September then yes, I'd be pretty desperate. But... that's not what's being said?

Nothing has actually been said though and I think that's the crux of the problem. People don't know what the actual plan or strategy is (if there even is one!) and are having to wait too long to find out.

@bumbleymummy restrictions will have long been lifted before we run out of tax money 😅 our economy has taken a huge hit yes but it’s nowhere near dysfunctional. A lot of jobs are being done from home.

I'm just about to post thank you letters to Walker and Swayne for speaking out against lockdown.

Worth doing, takes no time. Though I did have to hunt for stamps 😂

@hastingsandchips

I find it quite hard to see what the big problem with that is? If it was no school and nothing at all till September then yes, I'd be pretty desperate. But... that's not what's being said?

Nothing has actually been said though and I think that's the crux of the problem. People don't know what the actual plan or strategy is (if there even is one!) and are having to wait too long to find out.

Yes, that is true - the uncertainty is incredibly difficult.

@mamaatthegym We have already 'run out of tax money' We have had a deficit in the billions for years. It's now at a record high -

www.ft.com/content/13d3c0bf-449b-4a28-916b-3c3ec9033267

Thankfully , I think despite the uproar on this thread from armchair epidemiologists.
I think people with this opinion are still very much in the minority.

If there is a continued lockdown (and there should be,or at least a very gradual opening up. Not like before) the majority will comply.
Nobody likes it. Not even those who like me think it should continue until more are vaccinated.

Judging by this thread we will still have those popping to their parents and I think the protests will be a storm in a teacup. We will probably see a couple of Facebook live posts with a couple of hundred people shouting looking like total bellends.

And then, if we're just a bit careful for a bit longer, we'll open up properly and fully

People are (rightly or wrongly) quite sceptical of claims that we need to do this for ‘just a bit longer’ by now. Public messaging suggesting restrictions in place until 2022 is not going to help with that.

Where I live we had a 16-day ‘circuit breaker’ stopping us from having anyone in our houses. It started in October and it’s still going on. We had a 2-week delay to schools and nurseries going back, currently 6 and counting. I’m not saying all thats the wrong thing to do, I think it’s maybe justified given the circumstances, but it is really not surprising that few people are going to buy “just a bit longer” without a clear end in mind by now.

People need to be able to see the finish line, and right now many people feel they can’t or that it’s being moved. The way to answer that is to say “the finish line is HERE”, not for the government to leak bleak suggestions about autumn to the Times and SAGE scientists to trot round the media circuit talking about 2022.

My main worry now that the roadmap on the 22nd will be another Christmas. I don't want exact dates of when restrictions will be lifted. A 'plan' like that isn't worth the paper it's written on. What I want is a set of criteria that the government will use to guage when it's safe to lift each restriction, the order in which restrictions will be lifted, and a weekly update on where we are vs the criteria. I also want to know that the entire set of restrictions is being reviewed holistically, not just based on Covid figures.

E.g. the NHS can cope with an infection rate of 100 per 100000. When we get to that rate for a sustainable period of 14 days, we will lift domestic restrictions in this order, with each restriction lifted 4 weeks after the previous one to test the numbers:

• schools return
• rule of 6 household mixing
• hospitality and leisure
• domestic travel for leisure purposes
• international business travel to countries with a 100 per 100000 or lower case rate
• international leisure travel to the same countries
• etc.

If rates increase to 150 cases per 100000, then the next restriction lift will not happen until rates stabilise and we can check that cases aren't resulting in an increase in hospital admissions (as we expect from the vaccine roll out resulting in less severe symptoms). This will take a further 4 weeks. If at that point the NHS is coping then we will proceed with lifting the next restriction.

Social distancing measures and mandatory face coverings as implemented last autumn will remain in place for the rest of the year. This will be reviewed once the vaccine roll-out to all eligible adults is complete.

/mock-up roadmap

That's all I want to see. Not a bunch of promises that I can't trust.

Yep agree

Thankfully , I think despite the uproar on this thread from armchair epidemiologists. I think people with this opinion are still very much in the minority.

With what opinion? You’re treating the “end lockdown right this minute” people the same as the “end lockdown when enough people are vaccinated” people!