We cannot cancel life, to preserve every life

[Slytherin]

I actually find myself agreeing with a Tory for once...we’ve given up so much and the goalposts keep moving, yes it’s an unpredictable situation, but it’s also unsustainable long term. The idea that this summer will be possibly worse than last summer makes zero sense, when we have a vaccine roll out that far exceeds any other nation (except Israel) currently.
First it was let’s get the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated, then it was let’s get the over 50s vaccinated, now we’ve got members of SAGE suggesting restrictions have to continue until everyone, including children are vaccinated and beyond, because of the possibility of new variants. Professor John Edmunds said some would have to stay “forever” last night on Peston.

We must at some point live with an element of risk. I’m in no way suggesting we lift lockdown yet, but suggesting that things won’t have much improved by the summer, is, in my opinion encroaching into dangerous territory.

The government were over promising before, now they’re under promising. There’s got to be a middle ground, people’s mental health cannot sustain this level of pessimism and not having a single thing to look forward to. Everything gets dangled like a carrot, then taken away at the last minute. It’s beyond cruel.

Then it’s the mixed messages, Matt Hancock telling us he’s going on a summer holiday to Cornwall and he’s all booked up and Grant Shapps then telling nobody to even consider booking a holiday abroad or domestically this summer.

Yes, I support restrictions to save lives and support the NHS, but I don’t support the way the government are handling this once again. And I don’t support these restrictions indefinitely, especially when the majority of the at risk groups have been vaccinated.

www.channel4.com/news/we-cannot-cancel-life-to-preserve-every-life-tory-mp-sir-charles-walker-on-lockdown?fbclid=IwAR2RnQNKwJoQ4FSBxT9oTbwbFOCTWcIU9wD9WdYkTEA2sVlJ1posWZAfmsU

@Watchingbehindmyhands Not that many fifty year olds dying of it, clearly. They are not that at risk.

Are you really that obtuse? The huge unknown is why we are in this mess. Why not learn, suppress the issue and move forwards? Rather than hung ho, fuck it, it’ll be alright and then it’s not alright and younger people start dying in far bigger numbers? Or you can’t get treatment for a burst appendix and die?

For starters, there is no need to be rude.

How many different scenarios do you want to plan for that mean that we have to stay in the house for another year, or two, or five? Talk about pre-emptive measures.

There will be more variants, and more unknowns, but shit happens. We can't 'hunker down' forever.

I may die of that burst appendix, but I'd rather that and be able to live my life than endure this endless bullshit for another two, five, ten fucking years until some dickhead from Sage decides it's 'safe'.

So fed up of hearing the blame put onto the elderly and vulnerable. I'm 40, was fit, able, full health etc. Ran, did Joe Wicks, played football with the kids. Today I cleaned 2 floors and am lying in bed with chest pains. I had covid in August. It's great people have decided theyve had enough and believe me so have I, I saw my family in may, but we're in a bloody pandemic

We need to trust the science to get us back to normality.

Again - what do you think this looks like?

Science can’t eliminate covid globally. Science can’t negotiate with it to make it go away. All that science can do is the massive, impressive task of creating vaccines which work, monitoring for new variants, and adapting vaccines quickly to respond as needed.

That is what we are doing. It is amazing. We could never have dreamed of something like this so fast even ten or twenty years ago.

But you think this is not enough and call me ‘hard of understanding’. So okay. What am I not understanding? What is it you think ‘the science’ can do, beyond this? What would you like us all to wait for?

@Watchingbehindmyhands

What I object to is the idea of continuing with restrictions long after they have been

So many people hard of understanding. It is clear that the virus will not go away. Any opportunity it has to spread means it is given a chance to mutate. That’s one worldwide game of Russian Roulette. We might get lucky. We might not. It is clear that the more chances it has to mutate, the better off the whole world,I’d going to be. It might just fizzle out tomorrow. It probably won’t. We need to trust the science to get us back to normality. It might take longer than any of us like but that will be better than a mutation that goes beyond the vaccine’s reach.

I wouldn’t say we’re ‘hard of understanding’ at all actually. Some of us just don’t want to keep giving up huge chunks of our lives on a ‘maybe this will get worse’ prediction. I don’t particularly want to just keep treading water for the next few years, watching every mutation with fear and waiting for something bad to happen.

[quote Watchingbehindmyhands]@bumbleymummy. So you’re OK but fuck anyone else? Do you have w clue how long economic recovery would take if everything collapses? Worldwide?[/quote]
🙄 Not what I said at all.

Do you know how long the economic recovery is going to take from all these restrictions? How close we are to economic collapse? We can’t keep going like this forever.

The problem is this - the genome of the virus has proven less stable than they thought and hoped at the beginning. If you lift restrictions and allow it to run riot among the unvaccinated under 50s, it will mutate- and one of those mutations could mean it evades the vaccines altogether. So we’d be back to square one. The solution is to vaccinate everyone (which we hope to do with at least one dose by September) - the vaccines should cut down transmission. Coupled with loosening restrictions very prudently and a good test and trace, that would keep numbers very low and significantly improve the odds that we don’t get a nasty mutation.

This. This is the only post necessary on the thread. It explains everything perfectly.

If 2020 taught us anything, it's that things could always get worse. If the government had been more savvy to that a year ago, we could possibly have escaped a year of carnage. If Australia could, anyone could.

But for us, the 'worse' feels like more lockdown because it's very tough. That is not as bad as it gets. As the highlighted post mentions, things could get very, very bad with another mutation or two in the wrong direction. Covid strains seem sufficiently good at transmission that they really doesn't need to become less lethal to get better at adapting. It's not 'stable' and it's not becoming akin to the common cold, as was hoped. If we're not careful, the vaccine could actually improve the chances of Covid mutation in various ways - for a start, we treat people so they survive for longer and give more transmission opportunities but with a vaccine, we'd also open up and give it free rein to evolve. I would prefer not to find out what happens to this virus under selection pressures with a vaccinated population.

The simple truth is, most of us lack the intelligence and expertise to judge the right moment to come out of lockdown, and the emotional maturity to acknowledge there is no 'right' moment - what works for me will not work for someone with a different set of priorities.

We need to stop thinking people are safe behind an invisible shield if they've had the vaccine, or that people who haven't had it are safe around those who have. This is is not about sacrificing younger people, either. As hard as it's been for younger people it would be harder without a functioning health service, as the last couple of months have illustrated. We'd also be wise to forget the floppy thinking that this is unlikely to affect anyone young enough to deserve some quality years of living (I don't think like that but clearly some do).

with a partially vaccinated population.

It’s more stable than flu @itallworkedouthorribly

Didn't say it wasn't bumbly.

It is more stable than flu. And we manage seasonal flu mutations okay by monitoring for new changes and retaking educated guesses at which strains are going to hit hardest in winter adjusting the vaccines every year accordingly.

I would be willing to bet that before now, most of us were not particularly stressed about seasonal flu mutating. We just assumed the vaccines could keep up with it well enough. Covid will end up the same way. It’s not going to go away and it’s not going to stop mutating, but we will manage it with the tools we already have, we don’t need to wait in our houses for some as-yet-nonexistent scientific innovation to turn up and make it all disappear.

From the person you quoted - “ The problem is this - the genome of the virus has proven less stable than they thought and hoped at the beginning.”

It’s still more stable than flu. I’m not sure what the person thought we were expecting.

I think they are worried about the new strain mutating if it tears through the younger population. It gives it ample opportunity to mutate and make even tougher reductions stay for longer.

I think the reason some restrictions to stay until adults are vaccinated is that it stops this.

The next big focus will be vaccinating the worlds population, because we are only as safe as the least vaccinated nation. This has global significance in covid mutations.

@GoldenOmber Well said

I get that the saints on here want to show there sainthood by screaming "but won't somebody please think of the elderly".... Honestly I get it, you want everyone to know you care....

What is your personal opinion on the cost of everyone else's livelyhood. Do you want people to lose their jobs, houses..... Struggle to feed themselves or kids?

Think the government will keep paying furlough forever? Think a large portion of the population that will lose their job over extended lockdown can rely on universal credit en masse. Have you seen the UKs finances.... Take a look, it's not good.

I was all for lockdown at the start but the cost is getting more then the benefit at this point if it carries on. So will the sainthood explain how the country can finance mass unemployment, homelessness, and fund extra things we will shortly need more of like mental health experts, educational/early year experts, speech therapists, etc with country that's becoming more and more broke. Do tell

bumbly

Can you explain why it matters to you so much than this virus is more stable than flu? I just don't get it. This is not flu. Are you trying to pretend to yourself that ICUs are full of people with the flu? No one said it was flu.

I’m not sure what the person thought we were expecting.

Well, unlike you, they weren't comparing everything with the flu. They were scientists who, for a range of reasons that clearly don't interest you, thought we could reasonably hope to have more time for a vaccine to stay relevant.

We need to trust the science to get us back to normality.

Science is a method. It’s not a set of absolute truths and it’s not a group of geniuses who know everything and everyone else should stay in their box, thank you very much.

The entire basis of the scientific method is to be extremely sceptical, to trust nothing, and to question everything.

Science will not get us back to normality. It might give us some useful information, which might help us to chart our course back to normality, based on our values.

So will the sainthood explain how the country can finance mass unemployment, homelessness, and fund extra things we will shortly need more of like mental health experts, educational/early year experts, speech therapists, etc with country that's becoming more and more broke. Do tell

Isn't it a bit gas lighty to label people with an opposite opinion, especially when you're evidently also a concerned member of the public?

I would like you to explain how you expect the following to be funded and operational if Covid were to stay at the levels it has been (and could well return to if we blow our chance of a vaccine). As I really don't see how I am a saint to believe the following are important and will be severely affected by an extension of what we're endured in January.

• NHS ICU care.

• NHS cancer care.

• NHS operations.

• NHS under-staffing problems.

• NHS funding for already under-funded services such as mental health.

• PTSD for those working in care homes and HCPs everywhere.

• Social support for the many vulnerable families who rely on extended family support from older members of the family, particularly those from BAME communities who are particularly at risk.

• Teachers being brought into school in a way their unions will accept if they continue to feel unsafe at work.

it’s not a group of geniuses who know everything and everyone else should stay in their box, thank you very much.

Hmmm. So you're in a plane and the pilot passes out. There's a co-pilot but he's not a genius and why should everyone stay out of the cockpit.

Why does saying thank you very much make this less inane?

Deeply perplexing.

we don't know how long immunity lasts. Some say maybe only 6 months

Then instead of telling vaccinated people to hide as if they had never been vaxed, it might be as well to start "releasing" them soon after they receive their 2nd vax (which will be straight away for some and March for the first cohort of 12 week interval people). So that some will get re-exposed thus giving themselves natural "boosters". And they can all get a booster in the autumn at the same as their usual flu vax if it is safe to do so (I assume tons of research is getting done on the safety and efficacy of giving flu and corona vaxes at the same time) assuming that production should be running flat out by then.

It’s still more stable than flu.

Stable at killing more people.
Covid 4 %
Flu 0.1%
It is not "the flu"

The entire basis of the scientific method is to be extremely sceptical, to trust nothing, and to question everything.

The first tenet of the scientific method in the approach you're describing would be to trust absolutely nothing from someone without evidence, if someone with evidence was in the room.

Hence listening to people with evidence who are trained to question their own bias and not so much from internet randomers who got a biomedicine degree during lockdown and wish to get out of it.

@itallworkedouthorribly: really?

I would be willing to bet that before now, most of us were not particularly stressed about seasonal flu mutating. We just assumed the vaccines could keep up with it well enough.

Maybe we'd feel differently if flu had a higher mortality rate and no one had had it before? However I do hope we can reach the place you're describing in time.

@itallworkedouthorribly

it’s not a group of geniuses who know everything and everyone else should stay in their box, thank you very much.

Hmmm. So you're in a plane and the pilot passes out. There's a co-pilot but he's not a genius and why should everyone stay out of the cockpit.

Why does saying thank you very much make this less inane?

Deeply perplexing.

She’s not saying that scientists aren’t experts in their own areas. She’s saying that there isn’t one single, individual ‘the science’ that will tell us exactly what to do to navigate through this situation, and thinking there is is a fundamental misunderstanding of how science works.

I see this virus ‘tears through’ age groups.

Most ordinary viruses just get ‘passed between people.’

We ought to be scared of this one based on its capacity to incite hyperbole alone, especially from those prone to describing themselves as ‘petrified’ and insisting that their local playground is ‘rammed.’