Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Am not surprised they're confused. There's been loads of publicity saying not to worry if you haven't heard yet, we'll get to you! I was really surprised when I saw the thread on here today saying all over 70s can now go online and book.

Interesting report today from an Essex Echo local paper about asymptomatic testing, although it doesn't actually give the figures behind the PH director's statement:

The number of people with Covid-19 but showing no symptoms is “much much higher” than the government’s estimate, the director of public health for Essex has said.

The estimation from Dr Mike Gogarty that the number of asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 is higher than the assumed rate of one in three, raises serious questions over the level of inadvertent transmission by those who have no idea that they are carrying coronaviruss^.

At a meeting of ECC’s health scrutiny committee on Wednesday (January 27), Dr Mike Gogarty, its director of public, said: “While the Government is saying and continues to say that one in three cases are asymptomatic, we are finding the figures are much much higher than that.”

Of the total tests carried out, Dr Gogarty said the county saw around five per cent come back positive around Christmas which has now fallen to around three per cent.

Easier to access report here altho still not clear whether he's totalling LFD and PCR tests or what.

www.yellowad.co.uk/level-of-asymptomatic-covid-much-higher-than-government-estimates-claims-essex-director-of-public-health/

That's interesting @January. I wonder where the data is from though? If you compare the numbers found by the ONS survey to the reported case rates across the whole of the second wave (ignoring cases before July, because we know not everyone could get tested back then) it comes out at 25% of people who catch Covid each day get a positive test result. I'm sure there are some people whom have symptoms and don't get tested, but if only one in three people were asymptomatic, that would mean most people with symptoms were not getting tested. That doesn't really feel right to me. A two thirds figure for people who are asymptomatic (or with only very minor/atypical symptoms) seems more likely. Which would explain why lockdowns bring cases down better than test and trace (as they force everyone you reduce contact rather than assuming we can identify just those with Covid and their contacts.)

Need to be a bit cautious though of people who try to claim very high numbers of asymptomatic people, as it's sometimes used by anti-lockdown people who aren't looking at the evidence very objectively and are clutching at fringe theories that support a view that rates are falling naturally and not because of lockdown. It wasn't a very convincing theory back in May, and certainly didn't hold out when the second wave hit.

Re the WHO comments, this is, unusually, an illness to which the developed world is especially vulnerable, as we have an older population, which is more overweight. You also have people who have survived illness through the marvels of modern medicine but who would be very vulnerable to covid.

So the WHO estimates the IFR is a lot higher in the developed than the developing world.

We in fact need our own vaccines relatively more therefore (though of course there are people in the developed world who will benefit greatly from them as well).

[quote JanuaryChill]www.yellowad.co.uk/level-of-asymptomatic-covid-much-higher-than-government-estimates-claims-essex-director-of-public-health/[/quote]
Hmmmmm - anyone who says "we are finding the figures..." but doesn't actually show any figures automatically raises my suspicions. He may be telling the truth (or what he thinks is the truth) but I'm not taking just his word for it!

@herecomesthsun

Re the WHO comments, this is, unusually, an illness to which the developed world is especially vulnerable, as we have an older population, which is more overweight. You also have people who have survived illness through the marvels of modern medicine but who would be very vulnerable to covid.

So the WHO estimates the IFR is a lot higher in the developed than the developing world.

We in fact need our own vaccines relatively more therefore (though of course there are people in the developed world who will benefit greatly from them as well).

That's and good point. And if the vaccines we're using aren't 100% effective (or we don't get 100% take up) then we could go on seeing higher death rates than some developing countries if we stopped vaccinating after we've done the older age groups - if we stop distancing and let it run through the younger age groups it will inevitably infect some older/vulnerable people too. You'd need better data than we currently have on the proportion of vaccinated people who go on to be seriously ill and the numbers of vaccine refusers, as well as data on the differences between countries in terms of demographics and health issues to work out which way you would save most lives, but I don't think it's simple. Not that anyone will use those kind of calculations anyway - we don't currently give up half the annual NHS budget because it could save more lives in sub Saharan Africa do we?

@PatriciaHolm I know, but he is a DPH, I think it's just that the paper hasn't reported all his words. I looked online for a report or minutes of the meeting but couldn't find them.

Sage on importance of face coverings with new variant:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957010/s1029-emg-face-coverings-distancing.pdf

I think the Essex DPH (who is definitely not anti-lockdown) must be talking about what they're seeing from LFT, as they've set up centres for this all over Essex. However, I'd be sceptical about whether everyone using them is genuinely asymptomatic, as I think some are using them instead of PCRs even though it's made very clear you shouldn't. It isn't a random sample, either, which also might make positives surprisingly common. In general I think there's some confusion about what asymptomatic actually means; I've seen people use it to really mean very mild symptoms or symptoms that don't fit the testing criteria - and I can see why those wouldn't be picked up in testing, but it's misleading to call it asymptomatic.

[quote JanuaryChill]Sage on importance of face coverings with new variant:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957010/s1029-emg-face-coverings-distancing.pdf[/quote]
Interestingly this also confirms that face visors are not effective (unless worn with a face mask). I wonder why people are allowed to wear face visors without masks.

Yes I was wondering whether some symptomatic people would use the service.

I think the people who just wear visors are those who can't or won't tolerate face masks. They do it because they can.

Sage on importance of face coverings with new variant:
*
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957010/s1029-emg-face-coverings-distancing.pdff

I wonder if this will have any impact on the return to school plans.

@InterfectoremVulpes

ancientgran

He is wrong, tell him he's holding up the queue

Won't wash with him. He's been told to wait for the letter and wait he will. Retired senior police officer, bugger for following the rules, I think he wants to be a martyr.

@Hardbackwriter "In general I think there's some confusion about what asymptomatic actually means; I've seen people use it to really mean very mild symptoms or symptoms that don't fit the testing criteria"

The definition that NHS Test and Trace use for asymptomatic is not having one of the key 3 symptoms. That's why I use that one. (I wouldn't use it for mild symptoms.)

Is the online booking for over 70s England only?

DH's DM and DSD in South Wales haven't been done yet and DSD has leukaemia so it would be great if they could book (I am not sure if he is over 70 but DMIL is)

DSF not DSD...

On the testing website, it does say very clearly not to book without a letter. I know you can if eligible (and I would), but you're not meant to . Newspaper articles around as well asking people to wait for a letter.

Let's hope all the over 70s get their letters in the next few days .

It is a bit annoying when we know there is a post service problem in some areas. Surely by now they could all be told to go online and book.

Just re the booking system, my parents have both had emails now and had to book on. Father got an app the next day, mum spent all day logging on and finally got an appointment later afternoon. But there were only a very few released at that time.

I do worry some over 70's will struggle with this.

Not a physical letter.

3 of our parents got texts, dad asked if he could book mum too (younger so no text yet) and was told yes. Their letters arrived the day after they were vaccinated. I think it's important for there to be a message like "everyone in these groups who hasn't been contacted yet, please call X number to book or go online if you can".

@littleowl1

The table detailing latest daily cases and rate per 100k in each council in England is updated with today's data release on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

305 councils with falling cases week over week and just 10 councils with rising cases.

I'm in the NE and we don't understand why some areas are rising again or just static. Though lower (roughly half) than the national average.

I've wondered if the level of people working out and about plus the level of school communities means the R stays the same?

Or we are seeing the start of the new variant?

Other areas have fallen sharply though eg Gateshead. But that went v high around Xmas.