Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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DM doesn't have a mobile.

She will only go to a local GP centre as doesn't drive (and is wary of big centres ), so I'm not sure pushing her to book online would work anyway if she can't get a local GP appt. There is one 40 mins walk away so she wants that.

I suppose if lots book into big centres it does free up the local centres for people like DM

@tootyfruitypickle

DM doesn't have a mobile.

She will only go to a local GP centre as doesn't drive (and is wary of big centres ), so I'm not sure pushing her to book online would work anyway if she can't get a local GP appt. There is one 40 mins walk away so she wants that.

I suppose if lots book into big centres it does free up the local centres for people like DM

I think that's the idea really - that those who can do so book into the larger centres. And those who can't easily get to them or prefer to wait can wait for an appointment with their local GP. I forwarded that link to DM (73 and still waiting) but her technical skills thus far don't appear to be up to noticing the FB message, so not looking so hopeful that she'll make it though a difficult online booking system. She's well motivated though, so maybe!

@tootyfruitypickle

On the testing website, it does say very clearly not to book without a letter. I know you can if eligible (and I would), but you're not meant to . Newspaper articles around as well asking people to wait for a letter.

Let's hope all the over 70s get their letters in the next few days .

Yes, I've just shown this to DH and suggested that he send it to his dad, who is 73, and I've been greeted with absolute horror as 'it says not to do it without a letter' and he says his parents would be mortified if we even suggested they do it when the website says not to (which is almost certainly true). I can tell I won't get anywhere with this without an official message that it's ok. I'm not sure it'll actually work in our area anyway - we're the very bottom of the country for vaccine rollout and so I think they're still doing over 80s now so presumably they won't let over 70s book if so?

And the message locally has been very strong that you shouldn't be contacting anyone until you're contacted. I've been a bit frustrated that anyone suggesting on local social media etc that it's maybe a bit shit that we're the absolute bottom of the country and at last count were only 67% of the way through over 80s while other areas are gaily doing their 70 year olds has been flamed and hounded for the crimes of criticising the NHS and being impatient...

It is a particular NHS thing to insist in dispatching letters. It is being literally dragged, kicking and screaming into the digital world, and so much time an effort has gone in to try to make it more efficient. And yet, the key message is still, wait for your letter. It's infuriating.

DH regularly goes into trusts who still rely on faxes ffs.

It’s frustrating that they don’t issue a press release to say that all currently eligible people will be able to book online. Maybe they’re worried people will continually refresh and crash the system? They announced on Wednesday evening that 65-69 yo in NI could book online, so after an hour of stress I got both my parents booked (and now vaccinated). Seems much slicker than waiting for a letter that may be delayed while vaccine slots are available and potentially going unfilled. On a side note - does anyone know if there are specific cost savings published to using the mass-vaccination centres? I remember the figures were published somewhere for the payment being made to GPs per vaccine, but I haven’t seen the cost for mass vaccination centres, but I’m assuming because of scale there are significant cost savings and as such don’t know why they’re not encouraging more eligible people to book this way sooner.

My guess would be that they will soon announce that all remaining over 70s are now able to go online and book, but they want to wait another week or so so that the system isn't overwhelmed and crashes. They will want to announce it before their deadline of mid February though, so that they can say they met their target.

Even just taking down the message that actively says you shouldn't use it unless you have a letter would be a big help!

This news article is about a paper that's out looking at the impact of vaccination on transmission rates, and how many people you'd need to vaccinate to allow certain levels of unlocking. Exclusive: Social distancing may have to remain in place all year

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AwntH7JxzkWP

Apologies, I don't seem to be able to link to the paper itself, but there's a link in the news article. It looks to me that they were overly pessimistic about the rate of vaccine rollout, but most of their other assumptions look plausible. Interested in people's thoughts on it?

Yes @Hardbackwriter it would be such an improvement, that notice has the opposite of the intended effect in that more “sharp-elbowed” but still eligible people, will proceed, whilst those equally as vulnerable but less confident etc. will hang back and wait for their letter

Rachel Reeves just said phase 1 will be done by half term therefore teachers should start phase 2 then.

Isn't phase 2 after all over 50s- ie phase 1 carries on til end March at least ?

So entire labour position on this is flawed?

I'm a bit confused as to their 'gradual removal of restrictions until August', which would seem to suggest that we'd be in a similar situation with restrictions to last summer, assuming that the things that never came back - large events, big indoor private gatherings - would be the last to come back, and yet that we'd be in a situation that was many, many times worse? Even if the vaccines do absolutely nothing why would deaths be so much higher this summer than last? Indeed their prediction for vaccines doing nothing to prevent transmission (which we is vanishingly unlikely, but ok) but rule of six social distancing remaining in place is 1000 deaths a day in July, which just seems unlikely given the actual experience of last summer? Perhaps I'm not understanding correctly or instinctively trying to dismiss news I very much don't want to hear...

RR said phase 1 was groups 1 to 4. So phase 2, I guess is groups 5 and 6 + ?

Daily Telegraph article which covers first hints that we're seeing an impact on case numbers from vaccines. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccines-are-slowing-spread-of-virus-already-early-study-shows-lbwwgsvrh?shareToken=07f836edcb2e938915699a665f270804&fbclid=IwAR2bS7O7vEX6YeOOOsZf5cQQFGHb7o9dgDVcDR_ZU1C3WsX-Y1onGuarUww

Proper data to follow next week.

@MRex

It is a bit annoying when we know there is a post service problem in some areas. Surely by now they could all be told to go online and book.

I agree, why not just say if over 70s haven't had a letter they can do this, otherwise people who read the "Don't continue if you don't have a letter" are being seriously disadvantaged for following what we are being told.

The good news for me is my DS, nurse who has had covid, has now had his jab which delighted me. Unfortunately the care home I work at has still not had a date for residents or staff.

I was desperately hoping they would get the first 4 groups done by the 15th but I'm not feeling hopeful now, you read of so many GPs injecting their kids/fire stations getting calls to send everyone in/police officers getting it and personally I know of people under 65 who have had it, they don't know why they have been called as they say they have no health issues, I know I will probably get told they probably have some medical condition I don't know about but I tend to believe friends when they tell me they are confused as they don't qualify. So when they say 8.5 million have had the jab I just wonder how many of them are in the priority groups, probably the vast majority but do we know?

I'm pleased to hear the fire service and police are getting extras, that's a perfect use of them (and your DS!). So disappointing your care home hasn't been done yet. Could you book your DH online when he's out for a walk, then claim you got a call for him?

@lurker101

Yes *@Hardbackwriter* it would be such an improvement, that notice has the opposite of the intended effect in that more “sharp-elbowed” but still eligible people, will proceed, whilst those equally as vulnerable but less confident etc. will hang back and wait for their letter

Yes, I agree, I honestly think my in-laws would rather get COVID than do anything 'pushy' (one of the worst of all human sins) and it's frustrating if this is directly disadvantaging them!

@hardbackwriter - we didn't really unlock during May last year though did we? It was July before shops opened, and most schools not til September.

@Hardbackwriter I was reading it and thinking the same thing. I don't understand why this summer (vaccine rollout well progressed) should be substantially worse than last summer, where there was no rollout.

The only thing I can think of is we stayed in lockdown through all of May. And it was a properly observed lockdown - I remember driving to an emergency hospital appointment first weekend in June, and being the only car on the motorway. It was the furthest I had been from home since march and I was properly freaked out to be travelling. Is that the difference?

@Piggywaspushed

RR said phase 1 was groups 1 to 4. So phase 2, I guess is groups 5 and 6 + ?

RR is wrong and should get her facts right before causing confusion and frustration. I've just double checked and the vaccine delivery plan definitely says phase 1 is groups 1-9.

@Hardbackwriter

Even just taking down the message that actively says you shouldn't use it unless you have a letter would be a big help!

Yes, if the eligible can book why try to stop them.

I'm going to try to persuade DH today, yesterday he wouldn't hear of it, he is so vulnerable and it means I can't go out, I've been to a shop once in the last 2 or 3 months, I ran in and grabbed something I needed. If I wasn't so worried about him I could occasionally go to a shop, I'm not asking for the moon on a stick but just to feel I could go in a shop if I needed to.

@MRex

I'm pleased to hear the fire service and police are getting extras, that's a perfect use of them (and your DS!). So disappointing your care home hasn't been done yet. Could you book your DH online when he's out for a walk, then claim you got a call for him?

I wish I could, he is disabled so can't go out without me and the weather isn't making it easy to get him out, never mind the local Devon police aren't very positive about people driving for exercise and as we live near the top of a very steep hill I need to drive him somewhere flat for him to talk at all, he can't walk far anyway but the best place is the prom as it is totally flat, it is wide and you don't need to get near to anyone, and he can walk a short distance then sit on a bench for a few minutes and then walk to the next bench. Meanwhile I have a fast walk from one end of the prom to the other and back so I get some exercise as well.

I don't want vaccine wasted so I'm not saying they shouldn't use it but I would like to know how many of the headline doses have actually gone to the groups 1 to 4.

Walk not talk.

[quote Motorina]@Hardbackwriter I was reading it and thinking the same thing. I don't understand why this summer (vaccine rollout well progressed) should be substantially worse than last summer, where there was no rollout.

The only thing I can think of is we stayed in lockdown through all of May. And it was a properly observed lockdown - I remember driving to an emergency hospital appointment first weekend in June, and being the only car on the motorway. It was the furthest I had been from home since march and I was properly freaked out to be travelling. Is that the difference?[/quote]
Is it because of the new variant being more infectious?

On the "doesn't prevent transmission" articles, I'm afraid I've got my fingers firmly over my eyes when those come up. I understand the need for modelling it, but apart from new variants or reduced protection over time, it doesn't seem likely to me so I'm not going to fret over it.