Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@herecomesthsun

Also Indpendent SAGE were looking at the ONS figures plotted together with the REACT figures today and thought that they broadly fitted the same picture - one of a plateauing of infection rates more or less up to 23rd January.

Zoe are also saying that reduction in rates is slowing.

Colleague then went on to moan how noisy it is at home because her primary-aged sisters couldn't go to school...
Perhaps she meant generally, not because of isolation? Most kids can't get a place.

It depends on timeline, had the primary kids been to school recently enough to have given it to the mum?
(MRex, I think what you said was what @PurpleWh1teGreen meant anyway)

Kids have school places as mum is a key worker. Mum tested positive on the Monday after a weeks a/l. DC had been at school until the Friday...

Most infection is 3 - 6 days post contact so school definitely on the suspect list.

My concern is mostly that she is convinced it came from the supermarket, when the DC are such an obvious possibility. The misleading messages lies about school safety is just so irresponsible in my view.

I agree @PurpleWh1teGreen

Deaths have been updated - 1,245

Deaths are on the page now.
1245 announced today, how does that compare?
The case map is looking less purple by the day, it seems Lockdown is working.

@PurpleWh1teGreen - the kids would need to have vaccine infectious first before mum. So say 5 days kids + 5 days mum, it would be the Friday before that the kids got infected, maybe a little earlier or later. School is clearly a possibility either way, as they would presumably also have been in school the week before. Supermarket also still a possibility on that timeline if she went on Tuesday-Friday, more people are being infected from supermarkets if my friends are anything to go by (no kids in schools nor work out of the home in each of the cases). Whatever the older daughter does, she could also have been an asymptomatic carrier.
(Caveat: if any of the others get symptoms later then that might rule out some possible causes.)

@boys3

Of those 900 odd cases added today to 5th to 11th Jan spec dates very concentrated in 3 regions

London 370

North west 215

South east 152

Just 6 for West Midlands and 1 to the North East, more importantly that not being to County Durham :)

Haha, thank you, I might be watching that number obsessively!

Lost you all so just placemarking and then will catch up!

I've obviously explained really badly.

Children in school full time as key worker parent. Mum had a weeks annual leave, children remain in school. Mum Returns to work on Monday & LFT is positive.

Family therefore isolating and colleague complains about noise from younger siblings who are no longer in school as isolating.

Mum would likely have contracted infection in prior 6 days and yes DC are a likely source.

I've been asked to go for a test through Zoe-I think because I had a migraine on Thursday. So I've ordered an on-line test.
When I was booking it said that you could order a test for yourself and "up to 3 other members of your household". We're a household of 5, thankfully we don't all need one, but if we did, I think the majority of people would probably only order 4.

Interesting @Witchend, but am not sure I know what your last sentence means?

😨 about the EU vaccine thing....

@JanuaryChill
I was just thinking that if our whole household was showing symptoms then I'd probably only order 4 tests and just assume the 5th was the same as the others (or majority view I suppose with a mixture!) rather than getting 5 tests.
Obviously that wouldn't effect a huge number of people but it might skew things away from children being tested again as people would be more inclined to not do the younger ones, I suspect (and then you get siblings saying "well if they're not doing it then I'm not.")

Ah I get it, thanks @Witchend

Imperial's research is refocused on boosters now, I'm very excited about how saRNA could target variants, but the detail is way beyond my understanding. It seems to have some UK government funding, but unclear how much. Hopefully it will get enough support.
www.imperial.ac.uk/news/213313/imperial-vaccine-tech-target-covid-mutations/

That’s exciting news from Imperial.

Did anyone see this on the trajectory of B117 in Denmark? Raises lots of questions about the patterns we are seeing in the UK and how to explain. mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1354771117479751680

With each country having a different version of lockdown, or may be that something there is having an impact.

Yes. In essence for anyone not clicking, we see that R for old variant in Denmark is below 1 but R for B117 is above 1. So their version of lockdown is working but maybe not well enough for B117. Or so it appears. That is consistent with our understanding that B117 is more transmissible, but raises questions around why lockdown appears to be working here in the UK. And it raises questions about what the mechanism of increased transmissibility really is for B117.

I'm not sure it's that much different results is it? The total number of cases in the UK is almost certainly significantly higher than Denmark's, and the impact of the 20% who've already had it would reduce an R of 1.1 in Denmark to around 0.9 as we have in the UK.

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Yes. In essence for anyone not clicking, we see that R for old variant in Denmark is below 1 but R for B117 is above 1. So their version of lockdown is working but maybe not well enough for B117. Or so it appears. That is consistent with our understanding that B117 is more transmissible, but raises questions around why lockdown appears to be working here in the UK. And it raises questions about what the mechanism of increased transmissibility really is for B117.

Question. If R of old variant was falling rapidly but R of new variant was rising would we have noticed yet?

Old - R of 0.7
10000
7000
4900

New - R of 1.2
1000
1200
1424

Total
11000
8200
6324

So it would look like a rapid fall followed by starting to plateau which is what we are seeing now and then starting to rise again.

Does not however fit with falling more rapidly in South East unless we assume most of them have already had it. And if that was the case I would expect the gov to be aware by now even if they were not disclosing it because I don't think lab test results of which variant is doing what are published, are they?

@swg1 - I had wondered if there was another new variant coming through due to falling cases but also falling proportion of the Kent variant in the UK. Then I read that test-trace were heavily prioritising SA /Brazil then Kent variants, I don't know how as I didn't know genome testing was that fast, maybe it's assumptive on some way. That could slightly explain that variant share falling away... and reduced support for other variants maybe letting them grow a bit more? I can't find the article any more to see if it said more than I remember.

I feel like UK science is really coming into its own here. Here is the UK helps world with genome article: "UK to support rest of the world to find COVID-19 virus variants - GOV.UK" www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-support-rest-of-the-world-to-find-covid-19-virus-variants

They've been tracking cases that are "compatible with the new strain" and not compatible (which I think means not 100% certain, but should be fine for spotting trends) in the latest ONS infection survey. Yes you might expect to see the old strain falling faster and the new strain falling slower/flatlining/growing - indeed that's what we saw in London during the November lockdown, which was why cases started to rise in late November. But interestingly that's not what the ONS data shows. It shows the numbers of both strains falling together, or if anything the new strain falling faster in some regions. Which is odd. It could mean the new strain became so prevalent in some areas back in December that it's more or less burnt itself out in those areas. Or else there's something we don't yet understand about the different strains and their transmissibility.

@PurpleWh1teGreen

I've obviously explained really badly.

Children in school full time as key worker parent. Mum had a weeks annual leave, children remain in school. Mum Returns to work on Monday & LFT is positive.

Family therefore isolating and colleague complains about noise from younger siblings who are no longer in school as isolating.

Mum would likely have contracted infection in prior 6 days and yes DC are a likely source.

The isolation period is clinically 14 days though and lfts are unreliable.

So even if lft negative before annual leave could still have been infected before at work!

When did Mum / Carer go to the Supermarket?

Nothing in what you have said shows anything conclusive about where covid was picked up, so why assume it is the dc? Have the dc had a test?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4150818-When-people-say-they-have-no-idea-how-they-got-it