Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I don't think it's a mad suggestion at all @hardbackwriter. Roughly 800,000 babies born a year, nearly all in hospital. If 0.5% of mothers had Covid when they went in, that's 4,000 extra "Covid admissions", roughly what the chart shows compared to what we'd expect to see if the ratio of women to men was the same in the 20-40 age group compared to over 45s. And we know that more men die from Covid at all ages, so seems unlikely that more women would be getting very sick with it.

@MarshaBradyo

Whitty doing well at briefing as per usual

Yes I though he was very clear tonight

I'm sure that is a contributory factor and yes would explain the tail off in over 40s. I agree a breakdown of admitted with symptoms/infection, routine tested on admission for another reason (eg maternity) and hospital acquired would provide some interesting additional data.

@Firefliess

I don't think it's a mad suggestion at all *@hardbackwriter*. Roughly 800,000 babies born a year, nearly all in hospital. If 0.5% of mothers had Covid when they went in, that's 4,000 extra "Covid admissions", roughly what the chart shows compared to what we'd expect to see if the ratio of women to men was the same in the 20-40 age group compared to over 45s. And we know that more men die from Covid at all ages, so seems unlikely that more women would be getting very sick with it.

Ah, that breakdown makes a lot of sense. I was wondering if it was mad because I was thinking that obviously a tiny percentage of women need maternity care at any one time, so how big could the impact be, but of course you're right that you have to look at it the other way, that a lot of women in total give birth so they could be a big contributory factor.

I found it interesting to see hospitalisation rates are significantly higher in women as compared to men in the under 40s. Impact of being a main carer to children and/or older family members, risk associated with occupation, increased likelihood of seeking medical care?

As others have said, these aren't hospitalisation rates, they're cases in hospital with a covid diagnosis, you don't know the number of cases - as well as the very plausible maternity reason, women are generally more likely to seek treatment in any case in those age groups - they're also more negatively more likely to catch covid - more care home and medical staff.

So I don't think it's at all surprising that the numbers are high. Similarly the high numbers of under 5's is I'm sure more reflective of the number of the age group in hospital than those in hospital with covid.

Pregnancy is very much about increased risk, the ICNARC figures had something like 272 cases having gone into ICU. Early births are often associated with fever, so that may be an impact, as well as any induced labour so the mother can be given drugs for covid.

@sirfredfredgeorge I touched on the occupational risk and increased likelihood of seeking medical care in my initial post, but yes as discussed since the maternity aspect will be a significant contributory factor. My initial wording was imprecise surrounding hospitalisations, apologies.

Going forward, I assume they’ll record the results of the South African surge testing (postcode areas) in the overall positivity rates? So cases may seem to go up soon

.

Oh sorry @mrex just read further back and see you’ve already mentioned this

@MRex

Pregnancy is very much about increased risk, the ICNARC figures had something like 272 cases having gone into ICU. Early births are often associated with fever, so that may be an impact, as well as any induced labour so the mother can be given drugs for covid.

I know there is an increased risk in pregnancy, but I don't think that could explain the discrepancy between men and women could it? My understanding is that it's still a very small increase in risk of hospitalisation with covid (because most pregnant women will be a low risk group to begin with). I think you'd expect the number of women in hospital for maternity admissions who have covid but aren't there for covid to be much higher.

Been following this thread from very beginning in March but never posted. Thanks for keeping me informed and inspiring me to go and read a lot of interesting reports...
I've just posted on another thread about hospital cases but been meaning to post here for a while now.
How much of the deaths do we think are coming from the hospital acquired cases? I can't work out how to calculate this but a few weeks ago it was mentioned that high number of people testing positive in hospital hasn't tested positive before hospital... obviously few reasons there.. but interesting.
Also adding up cases related to hospitals and care. So care homes, hospitals, staff at both, their families, teachers teaching their kids, vulnerable elderly with care support. This must make a significant % of overall. Im a policy type person by trade not stats but I'm thinking must be at least 70%? (Apologies that may be too vague for this thread).

I've another burning stats question for Littleowl but will do that one later to not push my luck!)

How much of the deaths do we think are coming from the hospital acquired cases?

We don't know, when there's low community cases the hospital acquired seem to get up to 1/5 to 1/4th of cases in hospital, when it's higher it's more like 1/7th, but what we don't know is how many of these hospital cases are relatively benign vs how many deaths they cause.

We don't actually know that about regular admissions either, but there's obviously a higher chance that if you have covid at admission, t's more likely that it's contributing to your reason for admission.

I think in the next year or so the retrospective data is going to be very illuminating.

Sorry what I meant was; this data must be being tracked in some settings at least. If it's not that is worrying. You'd want to track the course of patients through the hospital system and outcomes surely? But I can imagine why this wouldn't be in the public domain as one report.

The other hole in data I can see but may have missed(and may have been covered) is the local data stratified (if that's the right term) against age. My area has very high older population and a lot of care homes too as we are seaside. Very low over summer and shot up to very high over Christmas. Of course the demographics relate to this...but if all area data were adjusted against population demographics I wonder if the picture would be clearer. Lots of hysterical and worried posts on our local social media but a quick check on data showed was large older group of people (not minimising this...). Would this then make the risk per area more clear? I think yes but as I said no data expert.

Am sure you're right @Icedgemandjelly.

Add workplaces to that list as well - the vast majority of infection comes not from people breaking the rules or a random jogger passing someone in the street. Can't remember if there's a stat to prove this but I guess ONS infections by place show it (sorry, vague)

@Icedgemandjelly

I would like to know that too. It was discovered that 30 percent of people leaving our local hospital were Covid positive. CQC had to get involved.
I do think most of the cases are from close contacts. I'm sure there are a lot of people who say they got it at the supermarket to test and trace when actually they were breaking the rules. I've heard so many stories of car dates, gyms still open, tenuous 'bubbles' forming etc.

The narrative on this will need to change once compliance is no longer as much of a concern. This would be a good way to change public fear IMHO. I do then wonder how the public will react. Mind you in the past not very much, as on many issues as hard to see behind the figures. Sadly most people don't want to hear the stats (perhaps why I posted tonight after 11 months!) as they feel the data narrative somehow minimises the deaths and is impersonal.
Also maybe a D notice on the core hospital data with relation to sources and spread.

I think they've already shown rule breaking to be minimal via research... can believe perhaps in younger age groups... but over 80s? Contact is support. Professional or family/friend. Working in any form outside the home for younger people. Non of these things 'break the rules'.
I'm quite sick of the 'rule breaking' line. Sorry not aimed at you, but nothing I've read adds up to that being the case. It's the pandemic equivalent of saying refugees are draining the NHS (i.e. finding someone to blame for system failures due to funding and policy).
Sorry I've gone off data and on to opinion. I must remember I am on this thread

Are hospitals calling test and trace for patients? To tell their loved ones to isolate if they've been in contact?

I suspect a lot of the "could only have caught it at the supermarket" lot have in fact caught it via a family member who's been asymptomatic. Most of the cases I've heard of have had partners working outside the home and/or kids in school. A lot of people don't entertain that possibly if the family member hasn't been ill themselves.

I'm sure it's possible to catch it in the supermarket, but if it was really common surely close to 100% of supermarket workers would have caught it as they're there so much - their rates are higher, but not that high.

Good question - presumably, as long as it's before the 8 days after which they count it as hospital-acquired?

Anecdotally one hears about rule breaking but statistically it's not significant. Think of the numbers of people you know legitimately going to their keyworker job, sending their kids to school (last term or, if KW, this term), caring for elderly relatives, using one support bubble, seeking medical attention for serious problems etc etc. I imagine these will far outweigh the dodgy scenarios.

@Firefliess

I suspect a lot of the "could only have caught it at the supermarket" lot have in fact caught it via a family member who's been asymptomatic. Most of the cases I've heard of have had partners working outside the home and/or kids in school. A lot of people don't entertain that possibly if the family member hasn't been ill themselves.

I'm sure it's possible to catch it in the supermarket, but if it was really common surely close to 100% of supermarket workers would have caught it as they're there so much - their rates are higher, but not that high.

I don't know anyone who has claimed this (and only seen people say it on here) so my view on this is skewed perhaps (data also doesn't show this either as you say). As mentioned in my OP I don't know anyone who hasn't caught via some (even tenuous) link to health and/or care (example of this is colleagues family getting from nursery worker who'd also looked after nurses child). Or another kind of close proximity job. Anecdata of course. I am biased on this issue as haven't seen what's happening in other areas in UK with different profiles so likely not the full picture. This isn't a health and care bashing post I must stress. Infection control is incredibly difficult. I got MRSA in hospital when I gave birth 10 years ago. Was only in for 1 and 1/2 days and had my own room. Couldn't fault the care, just unfortunate.

I do remember during one of the lockdowns, a Chris Whitt's slide showing a marked increase in cases at the supermarket.

I also know a lot of people who are bending the rules unintentionally or on a way that they think is inconsequential. Eg going out to get lunch together, small car journeys, dropping off something at someone's house and helping them put it away. There is also a lot of slacking at work.

My mum's telling me how she never goes out and the next sentence she's telling me who she talked to on the way to get some cash. All these encounters are overlooked and can't be accounted for in the data. Therefore the data won't be accurate.

My mum's telling me how she never goes out and the next sentence she's telling me who she talked to on the way to get some cash. All these encounters are overlooked and can't be accounted for in the data. Therefore the data won't be accurate.
Yes, anecdotal, but my mum and dad are exactly the same.