Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@TheSunIsStillShining

on another note does an average person know how efficient is a flue vaccine? Or a chickenpox/MMR/TB?...

I think one problem is that people have no clue about context. And these would help put it into perspective.

I'd very much like to know that. I'd always assumed that you were pretty much 100% protected (apart from TB because I knew someone who caught that even though she was vaccinated) But that's probably a naive assumption! They have had many years to fine tune and perfect most of our other vaccines though, so maybe they are better?

My daughter caught mumps despite having all MMR jabs.

We think our son caught whooping cough having also been vaccinated.

My parents caught flu despite being vaccinated.

In all these cases the illnesses wasn’t as severe as it would have been without the vaccination.

@Firefliess

1. as long as they are gathering data on long covid+vacc I'm obv. happy to wait, but the radio silence on it is slightly bothering

Even a meta-analysis of current data might open up corridors of inquiries.

1. the flu vacc in the past 40 years has become less and less effective. Now in some years we are down to as low as 48% efficiency. I have been keeping an eye on it for almost 2 decades so that I can adjust my behaviour accordingly. But in the past 10 years I've behaved as if it's a 50/50 chance of getting it. (I react extremely badly to the flu if/when caught)

MMR, pox, rubeola - afaik- are more along the 90-95% efficiency.

This research is worrying. It discusses the new mutation of the Kent variant and the gap between vaccine doses in the over 80s.

www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-likely-to-be-effective-against-b117-strain-of-sars-cov-2

I think the chickenpox vaccine is about 90% effective if you get it as a child (it is less so in adults) and have both doses - I remember that being on the leaflet when we had DS done and thinking that I'd be annoyed if he was the 1 in 10 when I'd just paid £140 for it! I think if you are in that 10% though it's normally mild.

Flu vaccine efficacy varies per year (MHRA are looking at real life efficacy for covid vaccines using the same reporting mechanisms), roughly 55% on average.
Other vaccines vary depending on one or two doses, MMR each has different single dose efficacy that's a bit lower. From NHS - After 2 doses around 99% of people will be protected against measles and rubella, around 88% of people will be protected against mumps. They also take different lengths of time to kick in, roughly proportional to the lag time from infection to illness for no coverage and then increasing efficacy for a period, then decline unless there's an extra shot.
BCG is 70-80% effective against TB.
Chickenpox varicella vaccine is 90% effective in children after one dose, higher after 2 doses. Lower in adults, much lower.
Shingles vaccine strongly recommended for elderly, 97% effective for under 60s and 91% over 70, dropping to 85% after 4 years.
There's also meningitis, 6-in-1, Hep A / B / C, rabies etc etc. All variable.
You can look them all up on the NHS site for info / if interested in others, or CDC site or wikipedia etc. Loads of info out there on all their different variations in how quickly efficacy fades, age group differences etc etc.

I've just realised that your point was about public understanding of the rates - I was surprised that the protection was 'as low' as 90%, so as an anecdotal example of a misinformed member of the public I obviously had overestimated the effectiveness of vaccines! (though I knew the flu vaccine varied from year to year and sometimes didn't do especially well)

@lonelyplanet - it does still suggest a milder illness, that the antibodies deal in part with the issue. I would guess that recommendations will be reviewed constantly, and given the Pfizer EC issues it may be recommended anyway to second dose the elderly Pfizer people sooner.

@Hardbackwriter
We decided to get our son vaccinated before moving here. 2 days before appointment nice little red dots appeared. At least we saved some money and he is now safe. :)

@TheSun Re long Covid. I know that they're continuing to monitor those who are taking part in trials even after they're "unblinded" so assume that will be to look at things like long Covid comparing outcomes for those who caught Covid after vaccination with the placebo group.

@Hardbackwriter
Yeah, my point would have been that to make actual personal risk assessment it is good to have context and be able to decide. I guess a huge majority will go with whatever and whenever they get, but for those who actually are slightly apprehensive it would be good to communicate these.

On the other hand, as long as we can't have a say in what we get, it might be slightly pointless....
And also it would be great if ppl understood that 60/70/...% efficacy is not that bad. For bog normal people that is probably perfectly fine, and basically in-line of better than the flu vacc they might get every year.
It's the ppl with a naturally fucked up immune system who are more at risk with a lower effectiveness.

From a personal pov, I'm happy to know in a broader context about vaccs, and really happy to have the option on what to get at the gp when it comes to flu. Some years there are 2-3 diff vaccs available. If I could choose, I' def go for P. in the normal dosing regiment, as for me that is a much better option.
I think I've been extremely lucky that in both countries (HU and UK) I had GPs who were willing to treat me as an adult and discuss things.

@Firefliess
That's reassuring! now we just have to wait....

@Hardbackwriter - my eldest was that child who the doctor though did get chicken pox after vaccination ( very very mild though)

Any ideas why Scotland seems to have left the gov covid cases map? Did Nicola unilaterally declare independence and that's it, they're gone?

@MRex

Any ideas why Scotland seems to have left the gov covid cases map? Did Nicola unilaterally declare independence and that's it, they're gone?

🤣🤣🤣

NI also missing.

Oh dear. Has Ursula annexed them both to get their vaccines?

Interestingly, the last time we had reported cases as “low” as today was 3 days after the end of the November/December lockdown. And we still have at least 5 weeks to go before any restrictions likely to be lifted so we should be in a really good position by then

@ceeveebee

Interestingly, the last time we had reported cases as “low” as today was 3 days after the end of the November/December lockdown. And we still have at least 5 weeks to go before any restrictions likely to be lifted so we should be in a really good position by then

Yes, if cases keep falling at current rate I reckon we should be on about 3,000 cases a day by 8 March, which should mean schools aren't sending so many kids home as they were by late autumn. And about 22m jabbed by that time if we keep on at current rate, which should allow an element of unlocking while keeping the r rate low.

R4's More or Less discussing govt testing numbers inc LFTs... should be interesting...

I just want to highlight that, although there’s been some bad news in the last couple of days, overall there is a lot of good news. We can question and problematise each one of these to an extent but still:

*3 more vaccines showing efficacy - novavax, j&j and even Sputnik
*bringing all vaccine trials together, we see no deaths after any vaccines have had a chance to kick in
*UK infections continue to fall
*data making a decent case for 12 weeks spacing of Oxford and
*suggesting an reduction in transmission of about 2/3!!
*over 14% in UK received at least one vaccine dose
*testing has continued to increase, which includes PCR and lateral flow tests
*PCR testing has remained high in itself though recent downward trend consistent with fall in asymptomatic infections

Just in case anyone is getting pulled into the gloom.

@MRex

Any ideas why Scotland seems to have left the gov covid cases map? Did Nicola unilaterally declare independence and that's it, they're gone?

🤣🤣🤣

That really made me laugh!

Does anyone know if efficacy of different vaccines for the same thing usually varies? Flu obviously if different strains are included. What about Varivax and Varilrix?
Further I'm hoping someone more scientific can agree or explain gaps in my thinking... We have all these different vaccines now (woohoo!) and they each have proven to produce antibodies. I can understand there being a clear efficacy and transmission difference based on mode of vaccine application (injection / up nose / swallowed), and in vaccine approach (spike vs protein vs nucleus). I keep thinking back to someone's question about whether Oxford AZ, Novovax and Janssen results were affected by new variants in UK, SA and Brazil rather than inherently having lower efficacy than a Pfizer/ Moderna, all other things being equal. Logically, I'm not sure I quite understand why they would have lower efficacy.

I don’t know much but it seems that antibodies vary by their concentration and by their specificity to the target - the vaccines seem to produce different results in these regards. They also produce different B and T cell responses.

The vector vaccine efficacy is hampered by immunity to the vector - that’s why a chimpanzee adenovirus is used, and likely why the larger dosage spacing may be better, and why sputnik’a 2 vector approach may be better.

I reckon todays figures will be the first day they're under the 10,000 cases