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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

999 replies

TheSunIsStillShining · 28/01/2021 17:04

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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Eyewhisker · 31/01/2021 22:01

amici - they are going to try and measure transmission in Israel and given the speed of vaccination there, they should be able to say on the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine on transmission in a few weeks. The AZ effect on transmission will be less, because it seems reasonable to assume that infected people who have symptoms are shedding the virus.

Eyewhisker · 31/01/2021 22:04

I think some early info of the vaccine on cases will be published this week.

One thing I will try and keep an eye on is how care home outbreaks vary between England (mostly AZ) and NI (mostly Pfizer). By the end of Feb, it should be possible to do a good comparison. Fingers crossed for strong reductions in both.

TrashedWarrior · 31/01/2021 22:11

What Is known about other vaccines and transmission?

What other viruses are known to still be transmissible after a vaccine?

Eyewhisker · 31/01/2021 22:12

More positive data from Israel on vaccine effects. twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1355989129838911490?s=21

JanuaryChill · 31/01/2021 22:13

@Eyewhisker

That article is terrifying.

It was great to see that Novovax was effective against the Kent variant, but that potential for change is deeply worrying.

Yes.

One thing I didn't understand: would it stop the mutations in their tracks (as it were) if you just quarantined those long haul patients for ?three months - completely uneducated guess as to how long would be necessary - after they'd seemingly recovered? Rather than sending them out in the community to pass on their mutated virus??

Motorina · 31/01/2021 22:14

@TrashedWarrior - polio is still transmissible after one of the two available vaccines.

Eyewhisker · 31/01/2021 22:17

I would guess if the vaccine only lessens symptoms - as with the flu - it would still be transmissible. If the body is able to recognise the virus quickly and stop it before it can replicate, then no transmission.

There should be a strong correlation between how effective a vaccine is at reducing symptoms and how effective is at reducing transmission.

Eyewhisker · 31/01/2021 22:18

I expect the mutated virus from long covid patients spread to medical staff.

Haffiana · 31/01/2021 22:26

One thing I didn't understand: would it stop the mutations in their tracks (as it were) if you just quarantined those long haul patients for ?three months - completely uneducated guess as to how long would be necessary - after they'd seemingly recovered? Rather than sending them out in the community to pass on their mutated virus??

This is believed to be the cause of the Kent mutation - I can't find the relevant paper on it, but I have read it.

My understanding is that these are patients receiving fairly prolonged intensive treatment for various conditions as well as illness caused by Covid. The medical staff themselves are the most likely to be infected in the first instance.

sirfredfredgeorge · 31/01/2021 22:28

There should be a strong correlation between how effective a vaccine is at reducing symptoms and how effective is at reducing transmission

Should there? That would imply asymptomatic people would cause less transmission, but many if not all of the identified super spreaders were asymptomatic?

Firefliess · 31/01/2021 23:00

@sirfredfredgeorge

There should be a strong correlation between how effective a vaccine is at reducing symptoms and how effective is at reducing transmission

Should there? That would imply asymptomatic people would cause less transmission, but many if not all of the identified super spreaders were asymptomatic?

I think it's reasonable to assume that - all else being equal - people with the most virus are going to spread it most. But things aren't equal if some people have enough symptoms to realise they are ill, so isolate, but others have no symptoms, so don't.

Fun my understanding, the most common identified superspreaders were presymptomatic, not truly asymptomatic. So they did have high viral loads, they'd just not quite made them sick yet. But there does seem to be a lack of real evidence on who transmits most.

Motorina · 31/01/2021 23:08

@TrashedWarrior I posted this on another discussion, and am copy/pasting. Sorry - it's 11pm and I'm too knackered to retype. But hopefully it should give some context to the questionmarks over what impact the vaccine may have on transmission.

The likelyhood is that the vaccine will stop or reduce transmission. We simply don't know yet.

It would be rare for a vaccine not to do so, but there are examples of this. The reason for this is that our immune system is really a series of interlocking systems. There are innate systems - our skin and stomach acids, and immune cells that attack anything that looks alien. And adaptive systems, which learn how to respond to threats, and which are what vaccines trigger. But the adaptive system in itself divides down into compartments. The mucosal immune system (the system in the linings of the mouth, nose and gut) in particular is slightly seperate from the central system.

Which compartment you trigger depends on where you get an immune response. If the vaccine (or disease) is swallowed, you get good immunity in the bowels. If it's squirted up the nose, you get good immunity in the nose, throat and lungs. If you inject it, you get good internal immunity.

There is some overlap between the chunks of the immune system, but an exposure to one section of the immune system won't necessarily trigger much of a response in the others. In particular, injected vaccines don't tend to trigger much of a response in the mucosal or gut immune systems.

This is why the inactivated polio vaccine doesn't stop transmission. Polio is mostly a disease which lives in the gut - it transmits when the faeces of an infected person contaminates the food or water that someone else drinks or eats. And it does no great harm there. People get ill with polio when the organism leaves their gut and invades their nervous system. The inactivated polio vaccine is an injection, which creates an immune response carried by the blood. Those defences are triggered when the organism tries to spread into someone from their gut. It works really well to stops people from getting sick. But it doesn't attack the organism when it is living in the gut, so it doesn't stop people from carrying or transmitting the virus. The oral polio vaccine, on the other hand, is swallowed and creates a good immune response in the gut and so does stop the disease from spreading.

Covid enters the body and lives in the linings of the nose and throat. You only get really ill if it enters into your body from there. We know the vaccine is really good at stopping that. But the nose linings are mucosal immunity - a different system - and we don't yet know to what extent the covid vaccine injection will trigger immunity there. The virus may continue to reproduce in and spread from the nose/throat. The likelyhood is it will reduce the amount of virus hanging around in the nose and being coughed or sneezed out, and so will reduce spread, but this remains an unknown.

(more at www.nature.com/articles/nm1213 but it's moderately heavy going.)

(And as with everything I'm open to criticism/correction from the people who understand this stuff much better than I.)

TrashedWarrior · 01/02/2021 07:20

@Motorina thank you, a fascinating post.

The immune system is amazing.

I love this article: www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/30/immunological-unicorn-the-australian-lab-growing-coronavirus-and-its-startling-discovery

I'm also always fascinated by the idea that they think mammary glands evolved from the immune system. Apparently the areola can pick up micro organisms from baby and that can translate into an immune response by mum in the milk. (V sketchy memory of that and I'm paraphrasing hugely.)

Eyewhisker · 01/02/2021 07:31

Thanks Motorina - really clear.

I’d expect less reduction in transmission with lower efficacy, as I’d assume that those who develop symptoms would be able to transmit - whether before or after they develop symptoms. They may well be most infectious just before symptoms appear, but they are still infectious.

So if a vaccine is 60% effective at removing symptomatic infection, at least 40% of people could still transmit. Conversely, with a 95% effective vaccine, at least 5% could still transmit.

How much those who don’t develop symptoms transmit is unknown.

littlestpogo · 01/02/2021 07:50

Thanks @Loftyloft!

So London is quite a bit lower then. Which is concerning given where it is at the moment ( and hopefully - well not hopefully exactly - a reflection of logistics as opposed to lower level of uptake).

borntobequiet · 01/02/2021 08:51

Which compartment you trigger depends on where you get an immune response.

So does this explain somewhat the bafflingly wide range of Covid symptoms? For example children don’t always show the three “classic” symptoms, but often get an upset stomach. (Given the generally unhygienic habits of children that wouldn’t surprise me much.)

TrashedWarrior · 01/02/2021 08:59

That's what I've thought Eyewhisker

Motorina · 01/02/2021 09:04

@borntobequiet no idea. 30 years since I studied immunology, barely understood it then, and it will have changed. I’ve been trying to update myself but it’s a really steep learning curve.

ancientgran · 01/02/2021 09:46

Govt announce all care homes have now been offered the vaccine. Oh how I laughed.

Firefliess · 01/02/2021 10:07

@ancientgran

Govt announce all care homes have now been offered the vaccine. Oh how I laughed.
Do you know what's happening at yours @ancientgran? They did say some hadn't been done because of an active outbreak - is that the problem? Or does the government not know you exist?(!)
lurker101 · 01/02/2021 10:09

@ancientgran BBC are reporting that social care minister Helen Whately has requested that any care homes that hasn’t been contacted contact her via her ministerial email address and she will personally follow up - might be a good way to go to get an answer if it’s not related to PHE having declared an outbreak

oneglassandpuzzled · 01/02/2021 10:16

Thank you,Motorina. Really interesting.

ancientgran · 01/02/2021 10:58

@lurker101 Thanks, I will mention it to our manager.

We don't have an outbreak, we have had two but all clear now as proved by tests. I suppose it depends what you mean by "offered." We had a phone call to say, "We don't know when we will be with you but we will let you know." If that an offer? Clearly they know we exist, they know we are entitled, they know our results. So does that phone call count as an offer?

ancientgran · 01/02/2021 11:00

[quote lurker101]@ancientgran BBC are reporting that social care minister Helen Whately has requested that any care homes that hasn’t been contacted contact her via her ministerial email address and she will personally follow up - might be a good way to go to get an answer if it’s not related to PHE having declared an outbreak[/quote]
Actually I suppose we do count as we have been contacted. I don't think that is how the general public will interpret it, when they were congratulating her on TV this morning I don't think the presenters thought it was.

I don't think I can bear to listen to Matt Hancock congratulating himself this afternoon.

ancientgran · 01/02/2021 11:15

So this was the link that came up when I did a search. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9209615/Has-care-home-resident-REALLY-offered-Covid-jab.html

So on the day the govt claim all care home residents have been offered a jab the Care Minister admits that isn't true.

That will do wonders for trust and confidence in the government.

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