Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@boys3

We may have signs of our first council area recording zero cases on a weekday for some time.

Torridge at the moment showing zero cases for last Thursday , need another day or so to be sure, but with the lag on spec dates shortening cautious optimism.

The last weekday when any council area recorded zero cases was 9th December (Copeland in Cumbria)

Go back to last august and it was not unusual for getting on towards 100 councils to have zero cases on a weekday, with more again on the weekends.

Torridge does have a fairly low population at just under 70,000, but even so go to start somewhere.

Absolutely. We have been lucky in Devon but all credit to Torridge.

@tootyfruitypickle

Is it definitely that you either are or aren't protected though? I had the swine flu jab and was the only one in my family to, that winter we all got a horrendous flu and I was the least ill so I presumed it was swine flu and I'd been less ill due to the jab. It wasn't a normal flu - and I do get flu very badly normally so could see this was different; or that's what I thought at the time . I was assuming this might be the same ?

Before I hit retirement age I was head of HR in a medium sized organisation. A few years before I left we had a quite severe outbreak of flu, can't remember which year it was. The thing I noticed was it was the young staff, say under 35 to 40, who were hardest hit. Some over 50s were ill but the vast majority of over 50s and a significant majority of over 40s were unaffected. The older people who got it also seemed to have a milder form. I assumed lots of us oldies had caught the same or similar flu virus years ago and had protection. No idea if it was true but it was very striking how differently the young and old were affected. I don't know if protection would last that long?

@MRex

That's great *@InterfectoremVulpes*, it's so nice to see the dark blue driving back the purple.

In other excitement, my MSOA is light blue!!! No new cases for a few days even gives me hope of seeing green again. One day we will start to see the slightly sickly mustard yellow nearly everywhere (and wish they'd picked a different colour for that).

We've gone from dark pink yesterday, to dark blue today, but with a 60% drop. As it's over seven days that's a huge drop for a day. Thinking we may be light blue as soon as tomorrow. Local large town, which is the regional centre, is now pale green .

Does anyone know how/if all the random/non-eligible vaccine receivers will be tracked/contacted for their second doses? If the GP is calling his mate Dave in to get one, I hope Dave is then called in for dose two rather than lost in the system

To go back a page or two to the risk of behaviour changing once people have had the vaccine, I think that's very real. I had mine sufficiently long ago that I'm now through the 12 days non-immune period, and I can already tell my attitude is changing.

I'm absolutely not doing anything illegal, but I booked a non-emergency vet appointment I've been putting off, and will be going to the post-office next week. I wouldn't have done either of those 3 weeks ago.

When it's legal again, I'll book a haircut, having been unstyled for a year.

All those things are perfectly legal (not the haircut, yet) but could impact on transmission.

@NoGoodPunsLeft people I know who've had the vaccine have had the 2nd appt made as they leave. Only one who hasn't is mum's care home and they are hoping for 2nd ones within weeks - 1st was beginning of Jan

The table of daily cases and latest rates per 100k for all councils in England is updated with today's data release on www.covidmessenger.com

Click the county column to sort by county and quickly get a snapshot of whats happening in your county.

It's look really very good in so many counties. Really great news!

Well thanks for the link to the vaccine booking site. DM is now booked in for Wednesday . And I'm planning to go visit her at the start of March. - She was in a support bubble with DSis, but hasn't seen her since Christmas, so all entirely legal, but feel more confident visiting once she's vaccinated - of course vaccination will change behaviour - for many people that's why they want to be vaccinated. It's not to be at lower risk when you visit the supermarket while you spend the rest of your week seeing noone, it's to allow you at least a bit of social contact at a lower risk.

My mum's quite close to you I think @ancientgran. She's booked into somewhere near Exeter that she says she can drive to. She's slightly uneasy about not having a letter, but I've told her she's being helpful by taking the pressure off her local GP who seems to be struggling to get through the over 75s still at present, and leaving the GP slots for those who can't drive to a larger centre.

Thanks @littleowl1

My area, SE, in tier 4 over Xmas, now under 200k per 100,000! Haven't looked at the map but hoping that warrants a further change in colour !

@InterfectoremVulpes

Essex is Blue!!!!!!!

Our little area is green. Just our estate, and we're surrounded with light blue, but that is an amazing sight!

@clarexbp

I've just read the Warwick modelling paper. Disclaimer - it's not my professional area, but it's also not a million miles away. Most of the assumptions it makes look pretty reasonable to me and I read it with an increasing sinking feeling that it's probably correct. BUT, then near the end they point out a couple of things that they were not able to take into account because sensible data are not yet available. So, they say: "we have assumed that efficacy against disease applies equally across the entire spectrum of disease, however if the vaccine has differential protection against the most severe disease this will impact our predictions for hospital admissions and deaths." Can someone help me translate this? I'm taking it to mean that the model assumes that if you are one of the 10% of people (their best guess) that the vaccine doesn't 'work' for, then it won't work at all for you. If this is what they meant, then surely this is introducing a potential massive flaw in the model? My understanding is that if you are one of the unlucky ones, your vaccine might not stop you getting ill, but it WILL stop you getting seriously ill and needing hospital. One of the immunologists that I follow on Twitter says that this is (on currently available data) true for all of the vaccines that have announced Phase 3 trial data. If I've understood correctly, this means the model is likely to be quite pessimistic. Next, however, the paper says: "we expect efficacy to vary with age and between risk groups; incorporating such heterogeneity into models is key for more robust predictions." So, it's clear that the model expects the vaccine to work equally well for an 85-year old diabetic and a healthy 20-year old. This seems very unlikely to be the case and seems likely that it will push to model into 'over-optimistic' territory. Maybe the two cancel each other out? Anyway, I feel better for having read it and having realised that, in truth, they haven't got a clue - we may need to be in hard lockdown for months, or we may not at all.

I think what they mean by effecacy across the entire spectrum of disease must be that the vaccinated people who catch Covid anyway are just as likely to have serious disease as everyone else. Which I agree is probably pessimistic. But the other thing that matters a lot is the assumptions made about vaccine supply, and in particular the numbers they can get done by late March before they have to start using up most of the vaccine supply for second doses. The Warwick model assumes 1m in December (which was about right) 1m per week in January, and 2m to week from start of February. That works out at about 13m by late March, whereas in fact we've now done 9m, and if we do 2.5m a week for the next 8 weeks, that'll be 29m by end of March. Given that vaccination rates then slow down (because of second doses), getting 29m done instead of 13m should make a big difference to the level of unlocking we can manage in the coming months.

@Firefliess

Well thanks for the link to the vaccine booking site. DM is now booked in for Wednesday . And I'm planning to go visit her at the start of March. - She was in a support bubble with DSis, but hasn't seen her since Christmas, so all entirely legal, but feel more confident visiting once she's vaccinated - of course vaccination will change behaviour - for many people that's why they want to be vaccinated. It's not to be at lower risk when you visit the supermarket while you spend the rest of your week seeing noone, it's to allow you at least a bit of social contact at a lower risk.

My mum's quite close to you I think @ancientgran. She's booked into somewhere near Exeter that she says she can drive to. She's slightly uneasy about not having a letter, but I've told her she's being helpful by taking the pressure off her local GP who seems to be struggling to get through the over 75s still at present, and leaving the GP slots for those who can't drive to a larger centre.

Westpoint? I think that is where they are doing it on the outskirts of Exeter. It is easy to find and easy to park there. Hope it goes well for her.

I've been daydreaming about being able to pick my own fruit and veg at the supermarket. I think lockdown is affecting my brain.

@ancientgran - yes Westpoint. Thanks

Firefliess - does the Warwick model have implications for what level of effectiveness we demand in a vaccine? If 60% reduction in transmission isn’t enough, that’s not great for the Oxford vaccine, where presumably all those who still got covid symptoms could still transmit the virus.

I am watching with interest the outcome from Israel. It’s looking good, though still early days, but as we have a different vaccine mix, we can’t just assume the U.K. will get the same results.

@NoGoodPunsLeft - the NHS sped up creation of a system called NIMS, that will track everything including all other jabs ultimately; all reporting about vaccines comes from that system. Here's some info about it: "NHS England » National Immunisation Vaccination System (NIVS) for healthcare workers: frequently asked questions" www.england.nhs.uk/increasing-health-and-social-care-worker-flu-vaccinations/niv-faqs/.

@Eyewhisker

Firefliess - does the Warwick model have implications for what level of effectiveness we demand in a vaccine? If 60% reduction in transmission isn’t enough, that’s not great for the Oxford vaccine, where presumably all those who still got covid symptoms could still transmit the virus.

I am watching with interest the outcome from Israel. It’s looking good, though still early days, but as we have a different vaccine mix, we can’t just assume the U.K. will get the same results.

Yes, the model assumes that the Pfizer one is 94% and falls to 89% once a mixture of vaccines is in use. They assume protection is whatever proportion they're modelling of the 94/89%

Yes, I think you're right that one of the things you could take away is that it matters a lot how effective the different vaccines are reducing transmission. At the moment we don't really know this for any vaccine - though I would suspect that if six times as many people have symptomatic Covid with the Oxford vaccine compared with the Pfizer one (30% compared with 5%) then the Pfizer vaccine is probably better at reducing transmission too.

Except that the trial people were not mixing only with each other, so it does not show up if they were transmitting to other people? So the number of people in each group getting covid doesn't show how much they transmit it. That would have to be their contacts' likelihood of getting covid. (I am NOT an expert)

How would you measure transmission? You would have to be absolutely certain that the person who caught Covid had been in contact with the vaccinated person and no one else, otherwise they could have caught it elsewhere. And you'd need a large enough sample.

Eventually, when we have enough people vaccinated for long enough we can make an educated assumption about spreading, but it's early days yet.

There was talk of doing clinical trials; young healthy vaccinated people exposed to covid. To identify transmission maybe they check excretions from the nose, mouth and poo or something?

Speaking of, had anyone seen anything about the sewage? I'm so sad we don't have poo maps.

Just been looking at the vaccine figures reported and London still looks low relatively - these are absolute numbers reported though. Apologies I think I’ve missed this but can I find % of population vaccinated per region anywhere ( to give a better picture as to whether it is concerningly behind?)

Absolutely fascinating article (including link to the research I think) about how mutations happen 'best' and fastest in long haul Covid patients with compromised immune systems:

www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-01-30/long-term-covid-19-patients-are-incubating-dangerous-new-coronavirus-strains?fbclid=IwAR3j5YkeD0XNB64hVKHJncIx4qqg3OJa0ItONgsKzaIlT19Yir_9HEZzbX4

That article is terrifying.

It was great to see that Novovax was effective against the Kent variant, but that potential for change is deeply worrying.

@littlestpogo
Vaccine figures Courtesy of Twitter data expert rp131

My question is when vaccines will start to have an effect on case numbers. From today’s daily cases, the % of cases that are 80+ is roughly the same proportion as throughout this pandemic. You would hope in the next week or two, this would dramatically drop (to be honest I’d have expected smaller numbers already, but maybe that’s countered by the time of year, and a higher number of elderly generally in hospital than at other points in the pandemic).

Try again with my attachments 📈