If the vaccines do not work and lockdown isn't working

[RosieLemonade]

What happens now?
Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?

What makes you think lockdown isn’t working?

The cases are coming down.

But the vaccines do work so you can take a deep breath and turn down the panic.

And where have you got the idea that vaccines don’t work?

The vaccines will work.
And lockdowns work, a bit.

If nothing else pandemics fizzle out over time regardless.

So no this won't be your or anyone else's child's life.

Cases are falling and there’s no evidence that vaccines don’t work; in fact the contrary.

People on here said they are only 33 per cent effective and the papers are reporting infection rates aren't falling. I understand the lag for the death rates.

Isn’t the 33% effective just for the first dose? That’s why you have 2 doses

The 33% relates to some initial data from Israel for first doses of the vaccine. As pointed out above, that’s the reason for the second dose.

@RosieLemonade

People on here said they are only 33 per cent effective and the papers are reporting infection rates aren't falling. I understand the lag for the death rates.

Case rates are falling. It’s absolutely clear from the daily data.

The 33% figure is early days from Israel after one dose of the Pfizer vaccine. It’ll be much higher after the second dose. It might be show that that data isn’t indicative of what’s happening anyway.

Take a breath.

@GambasPil

The 33% relates to some initial data from Israel for first doses of the vaccine. As pointed out above, that’s the reason for the second dose.

I wouldn’t be so sure we’re getting a second dose. There’s already been talk of extending beyond the current 12 week gap plan. The ONLY purpose of mass vaccination and lockdown is to manage pressure on the NHS. I won’t be surprised if we get one dose to see the NHS through to summer then it starts again with a focus on the top four priority groups ahead of next winter. I think lockdowns, masks and distancing are here to stay.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55734257

We don't know exactly how vaccines are going to work in the real world as opposed to clinical trials, but there is no reason to think that they're not going to work at all.

Oh stop it OP

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55734257

It's a question that needs to be asked.

If the government ignore the necessity to give the Pfizer jab three weeks apart, as they are doing, and it transpires (as the Israeli data suggests), that a lone dose offers efficacy of 30% or less, and we can see that lockdowns do very little other than destroy the economy and roll the issue forwards, with cases spreading again as soon as lockdown lifts, then what?

I've recently read books about the Spanish Flu pandemic. I cannot see any evidence which showed endless, rolling lockdowns being imposed across the globe. There were some short lockdown attempts in various cities but ultimately the Spanish flu virus ran riot, millions upon millions of young, healthy people died, yet people had little choice but to crack on, go to work, and get through it. And the pandemic ended fairly swiftly.

As this drags on, surely there will be more and more mutations as the virus seeks to spread in the face of lockdowns? I'm not a virologist, but surely the more we lockdown, the longer we draw out the pandemic?

X post with @Reallybadidea!

Look at graphs thread on why React study reporting is flawed

The two time periods skip over the peak. Cases have gone up since last time period pre peak but are still falling now. Bad reporting unfortunately

If this lockdown and the vaccines really don't work, I think what should happen is that we go all out on everything else that's known to help reduce spread. A very strict lockdown for a while would get numbers down lower. Then just pile on everything else: border controls, supported quarantining, developing better test, trace and isolate systems, encouraging face coverings, creative solutions for schools and workplaces to allow better infection control, apps that work, continuing to develop treatments, more research into where and how it's spreading, etc.

I think that if we could trace every case, we could be on top of it. If we knew where the infections were and could stop them being transmitted, then we could have some sort of normality. It has happened in other countries, before the vaccines.

I'm not a virologist, but surely the more we lockdown, the longer we draw out the pandemic?

It’s the opposite. We need case numbers to go right down. The less the spread, the less replication of the virus and the less chance of new strains.

You can look at what actual virologists have said on this. Devi Sridhar is an excellent person to look up on Twitter.

I agree that it’s a question that needs to be asked. I am definitely not a doom monger but we do need to start planning for a future that includes these kind of scenarios. Otherwise it’s all knee jerk. So say we have to have social distancing measures for the next two winters which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. What are we going to do in that situation?

@PurpleDaisies

I'm not a virologist, but surely the more we lockdown, the longer we draw out the pandemic?

It’s the opposite. We need case numbers to go right down. The less the spread, the less replication of the virus and the less chance of new strains.

You can look at what actual virologists have said on this. Devi Sridhar is an excellent person to look up on Twitter.

I shall research further but surely that didn't happen during the Spanish flu pandemic? Wasn't it herd immunity that did the trick?

I shall research further but surely that didn't happen during the Spanish flu pandemic? Wasn't it herd immunity that did the trick?

Natural herd immunity will kill millions.

OP, deep breaths. The vaccines work, the end is in sight. Yes not as close as we would like, but the the vaccines have been proven to work and are being rolled out.

The bloody React study has sent me into a doom-spiral this morning, with one BBC writer saying tougher measures maybe needed.

I think the OP asks an important question.

50-100 million with the Spanish flu.

It then mutated to what we currently have as flu.

Yes to Purple more cases = more chance of mutations. No coincidence that the three major mutations at the moment are from countries that have had many cases, UK, Brazil and South Africa.

*50-100 million deaths