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If the vaccines do not work and lockdown isn't working

333 replies

RosieLemonade · 21/01/2021 10:40

What happens now?
Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?

OP posts:
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Malbecky · 21/01/2021 12:24

Jeez, some posts on this board are so unnecessarily cutting and sharp.

Yes, there is some scaremongering on here and yes, apparently there have been a lot of new accounts set up just to post doom, but a lot of people are just genuinely and UNDERSTANDABLY scared and confused.

MintyMabel · 21/01/2021 12:26

Devi Sridhar is an excellent person to look up on Twitter.

She is a mouthpiece for the SNP.

lightand · 21/01/2021 12:28

@duffeldaisy You say that the vaccines do work. But even pfizzer itself says 90% or is it 95%. Which means one in 20 people who have the pfizzer vaccine[oxford is 60% or whatever], can still catch the virus.

@PurpleDaisies. True. But between all the vaccines, there are still going to be significant numbers who will still catch it.
Older people are going to find they are not so immune to the virus as they are expecting to be.

TokyoSushi · 21/01/2021 12:30

It's all going to be ok, it's just going to take a long time.

Yohoheaveho · 21/01/2021 12:30

If vaccines don't work then the only way forward is to make the avoidance of respiratory pathogens a primary focus of human life

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 21/01/2021 12:30

@Malbecky

Jeez, some posts on this board are so unnecessarily cutting and sharp.

Yes, there is some scaremongering on here and yes, apparently there have been a lot of new accounts set up just to post doom, but a lot of people are just genuinely and UNDERSTANDABLY scared and confused.

Yes I think people need to remember this too.

The reason fake accounts are bad is because they often are used to scare people.

So please be careful everyone some doom posters are actually just scared and worried. Not all are doom mongers and fakes.

Yohoheaveho · 21/01/2021 12:32

Pre covered it was possible to live perfectly happily even if you weren't particularly healthy
Post covid if you don't make being healthy your primary focus then you arent going to survive very long

ItsNotRainingToday · 21/01/2021 12:34

@RosieLemonade

I thought it was working and was positive. A bit down but muddling through. The daily reports looked like it was dropping but the reports in the papers today say it isn't.
Stop reading the papers.

There is a lot of misinformation and bad reporting.

Wait for the press conferences and listen to them.

Otherwise, keep off the web and just follow the rules.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/01/2021 12:36

The BBC is utterly wrong about the REACT study. Whoever has interpreted it doesn't understand basic modeling.

Anniegetyourgun · 21/01/2021 12:36

Society doesn't break down if you can't go to the pub Confused It's bad news for publicans, for example, but they could be supported to start a different business. Just because we are currently used to living in each other's pockets doesn't mean we have to. A lot of people already have fairly isolated but perfectly sustainable lifestyles.

And people being fed won't happen if we go around infecting farmers, food processors and distributors.

loulouljh · 21/01/2021 12:37

@lightand

Australia back to normal. Singapore. There will be many others. We will have no choice. We cannot remain like this, The country will run out of money!

CoffeeandCroissant · 21/01/2021 12:37

The vaccines do work though:

^But to get an idea of how efficacious the Pfizer vaccine is, I love the analogy from @FLermyte
(who was valiantly attempting to convince a sceptic that these vaccines work), who said...^

‘Try flipping a coin 170 times, and see if it comes up heads 162 of them. I’ll wait’.
mobile.twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1351483448813359105

We have an amazing vaccine now that works against currently circulating viruses. And if it becomes necessary, this emerging situation can be dealt with through a forthcoming vaccine update.
mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1351785372875800576

RosieLemonade · 21/01/2021 12:38

No need to be rude. I was looking for an answer. Other people have agreed it is a question worth asking.

OP posts:
Haffiana · 21/01/2021 12:42

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

SeasonFinale · 21/01/2021 12:43

@RosieLemonade

What happens now? Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?
The vaccines will work and lockdown does have a positive impact even if some people are not adhering to it as strictly as they should.
LetItGoGo · 21/01/2021 12:45

Prof Devi Sridhar is in the political and policy side of health. I don't find her Twitter pronouncements illuminating but each to their own.

Following her might give a heads up as to Scottish government policy though.

User2921 · 21/01/2021 12:45

Of course it won't be your child's life for ever! No society can function long term with it's citizens kept under these restrictions.

Even if (one or more) of the vaccines don't prove to be the game changer we hope for, in the worst case scenario we will learn to live with the threat of covid as we do with cancer and road accidents.

Treatments will improve, we will manage it better and life will go on. What choice is there?

This is clearly not a sustainable long term strategy, and it will change.

Kokeshi123 · 21/01/2021 12:45

What do you envisage that looking like? People in ITU aren’t “very elderly” for the most part.

No idea what it would look like--it would be up to hospitals to perform triage of some kind. Look, I'm not suggesting we do this. I'm saying that it is what society would probably be forced to do in the end if we were faced with a virus that we could not vaccinate against, because permanent lockdown would result in an even worse situation where we wouldn't even be able to pay for the NHS in the first place.

Since the vaccines appear to work OK, it's a theoretical situation in any case.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 21/01/2021 12:46

So glad to see a conversation beginning about if the vaccines don't work (and to be clear, we all hope they do so that's not when but if)

Some of us have been suggesting this for months, and while none of the options are especially pleasant at least it's a start ... better, surely, than putting an inordinate amount of faith in just one thing?

RosieLemonade · 21/01/2021 12:46

@MarshaBradyo

Op have you changed your mind after reading posts on why?
It just spooked me reading today on news sites that it had made no difference.
OP posts:
PurpleDaisies · 21/01/2021 12:50

^Some of us have been suggesting this for months, and while none of the options are especially pleasant at least it's a start ... better, surely, than putting an inordinate amount of faith in just one thing?*

It’s not “just one thing”. There are multiple vaccines that work in different ways.

RosieLemonade · 21/01/2021 12:51

@rwalker

WE ALL DIE

fgs calm down

I am not scared of dying. I am scared of living like this for the rest of my life.
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MorrisZapp · 21/01/2021 12:51

My kid attended a full term of school from September til Christmas last year. Before any vaccine was administered.

I went on a UK city break.

We now have vaccines that work, and cases are coming down. Don't follow doom accounts on social media, look at the scientific facts.

PurpleDaisies · 21/01/2021 12:52

I am not scared of dying. I am scared of living like this for the rest of my life.

Genuinely the rest of your life?!

LondonJax · 21/01/2021 12:53

With regard to the vaccines, I heard a doctor speaking on the radio last week.

His analogy was building a house. The first vaccination isn't the foundations of the house, or the ground floor. It's the full house. Over a few weeks the plumbing starts working, electrics working (your immune response kicks in). The second vaccination adds that little bit more to plug the gaps, sorts out the 'snagging list' (to keep with the new house build analogy). So the house is finished. So you need to give the first dose time to finish its work then do a top up.

And, as people have said, the point of the vaccination isn't to stop you getting it. It might do that. But it's more likely to make the symptoms bearable. Stop you taking up a hospital bed, allowing you to manage the symptoms at home and come out the other side in one piece.

That means the hospital beds will then be available for those who have to take a chance (or decide to take a chance) because they can't have the vaccination (or choose not to). Which gives them, in turn, a better chance of survival. Which is what lockdown is trying to achieve at the moment - because we don't have any alternatives until the vaccinations have been completed.

After all, if 10 people get Covid and 8 need a bed that's fine if there are 8 beds available. But if there are only 7, the 8th person doesn't stand much hope. If the majority of those 10 people get the vaccination, even if they get Covid they can manage at home and it keeps the hospital bed need down to 3 people, everyone has a better chance of coming home. And our NHS staff get the chance of a better rota, more rest and keeping their health intact.

Finally, the Israeli tests did not say it was only 33% effective. They took 200,000 vaccinated people and 200,000 who were not and compared them. Two weeks in and the Covid infection rate was the same in both groups. BUT after two weeks (when the immune system began to work with the vaccination), there was a DROP of 33% in the new infection rate amongst those having the vaccination. That's a third less likely to become infected just two weeks after the vaccination. Apparently, after that, the infection rate in the vaccinated continued to drop. But there were so few infections the scientist couldn't get an accurate percentage fall. They've considered that as good news.

BUT the issue is that they gave the 2 doses three weeks apart. They have no idea how long it would take our regime to get the same results. That's the issue. We're potentially leaving too long between doses and that's what the scientists are now looking at. It could be that we stop this mass vaccination of every single person and go back to the one group having both doses then move onto the next group.