If the vaccines do not work and lockdown isn't working

[RosieLemonade]

What happens now?
Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?

Have you got a link to say they do work?

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=RP

[quote Aposterhasnoname]Israel vaccinations fears out of context and inaccurate.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55734257[/quote]
Thanks for this

Annoying for people to be buffeted around by two big things that are inaccurate

@Tupla

If this lockdown and the vaccines really don't work, I think what should happen is that we go all out on everything else that's known to help reduce spread. A very strict lockdown for a while would get numbers down lower. Then just pile on everything else: border controls, supported quarantining, developing better test, trace and isolate systems, encouraging face coverings, creative solutions for schools and workplaces to allow better infection control, apps that work, continuing to develop treatments, more research into where and how it's spreading, etc.

I think that if we could trace every case, we could be on top of it. If we knew where the infections were and could stop them being transmitted, then we could have some sort of normality. It has happened in other countries, before the vaccines.

Yea this is it probably, other countries have got on top of it pre vaccines.

Why do some people read the news and chose to only read the negative posts!

the infection rates are coming down for one, read the daily data ffs! It wasn't long ago that there were over 60000 cases per day. 🙄

I suspect ultimately the only solution will be to increase hospital capacity so that we can manage high numbers of covid infection
But the government are resisting this inevitability because it works against their long-term goal to sell off and privatise the NHS

OP, you are panicking and thinking of worst case scenario. There’s no evidence to suggest lockdown isn’t working (cases are dropping), the high deaths are scary but they are from people that caught covid around Christmas time when we were told we could mix for a day, deaths will go down in the coming weeks and cases will continue to drop.

There’s more than one vaccine and hopefully the vaccine will be successful.

Things will improve though it’s going to take time. This isn’t how life will be for ever.

@Magnifythatpie

So say we have to have social distancing measures for the next two winters which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. What are we going to do in that situation?

Socially distance. It's here for the long haul. It will be common practice going forward, esp. over the winter months.

@RosieLemonade

People on here said they are only 33 per cent effective and the papers are reporting infection rates aren't falling. I understand the lag for the death rates.

Rather than relying on random "people on here", why not listen to more reliable sources?

Cases high quite eay dropped. Anyone with working eyes and half a brain can glance at the graph and see.

The 33% figure quoted is because not enough time has elapsed for full immunity to develop yet.

@DappledOliveGroves

It's a question that needs to be asked.

If the government ignore the necessity to give the Pfizer jab three weeks apart, as they are doing, and it transpires (as the Israeli data suggests), that a lone dose offers efficacy of 30% or less, and we can see that lockdowns do very little other than destroy the economy and roll the issue forwards, with cases spreading again as soon as lockdown lifts, then what?

I've recently read books about the Spanish Flu pandemic. I cannot see any evidence which showed endless, rolling lockdowns being imposed across the globe. There were some short lockdown attempts in various cities but ultimately the Spanish flu virus ran riot, millions upon millions of young, healthy people died, yet people had little choice but to crack on, go to work, and get through it. And the pandemic ended fairly swiftly.

As this drags on, surely there will be more and more mutations as the virus seeks to spread in the face of lockdowns? I'm not a virologist, but surely the more we lockdown, the longer we draw out the pandemic?

This is a very sensible post.

Op have you changed your mind after reading posts on why?

This is a perfectly valid question. The doommongers are constantly peddling the idea that the changes to our lives will be permanent; the government is being deliberately vague about whether the vaccines work, because they don't want us suddenly hugging granny.

There's only so long that the government will be able to keep the public on their side. At the moment they're doing a hard sell on the doom and gloom to keep the public under control (and yes, I do believe it's about control), but when they think they've covered their arse sufficiently, or the magic money tree stops giving, or there are signs of civil unrest, the government will quite suddenly change the narrative to "loooooooook! the vaccine is working", probably whether it is or not.

I kind of agree that long half hearted lockdowns drag this out though. It’s the worst of both worlds.

The lockdown is reducing numbers of cases - and quite quickly in lots of areas. That data is very easy to find. And it is just starting a downturn in new hospital admissions. Death rates will take a little while longer to start coming down, but will follow these trends. www.covidmessenger.com/
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ scroll down to new daily cases
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare Hospital admissions - daily

Let's say even if the vaccine didn't reduce the number of cases at all (it will!), it will prevent many many cases (if not most) from becoming serious and fatal, so actually case numbers isn't so important because a huge number of people are being tested, included asymptomatic. But it will take a lot longer for those figures to come out - lots of the new cases reported with people who had had the vaccine will have only just had it within the the last week or so, and so it hasn't had time to take effect. Plus they may well count towards numbers of new cases if they've had the virus, but only have mild symptoms.

The numbers we need to watch are hospital admissions and deaths.

Don't believe everything that you read in the papers. They like to sensationalise. Just because they use words like may or could doesn't mean it will happen.

If you want to look at whether cases are coming down in your area look at your county's local government website. It will show cases for the last week and say how many cases there are for the town where you live and whether they have gone up or down. Before Christmas the county where I live had really high case numbers but since then all areas have shown a significant reduction so lockdown is working.

The problem with this logic “As this drags on, surely there will be more and more mutations as the virus seeks to spread in the face of lockdowns? I'm not a virologist, but surely the more we lockdown, the longer we draw out the pandemic?”

is that it assumes the virus is a sentient being “oh there’s lockdown, I’d better mutate” whereas mutations are just an accident. The more cases there are, the more mutations there are and the greater chance that one will be ‘successful’.

People on here

There's your problem right there!

Israel's data on antibodies after the 2nd jab was a bit anecdotal but it seems great! It's the disparity between their 3 week and our up to 12 week and beyond second jab time that's the issue. Pfizer believe it takes two jabs to really get great immunity, and we should be following their original schedule and then experimenting with differing time lags. The news is not bad at all from Israel!

Even if vaccine efficacy was only 33% (it isn't) it would still lead to a significant reduction in cases.
There really is no need to worry OP. There are still going to be setbacks but things will improve.

I meant to say the data on the fact that the antibodies leaped up several-fold after the second jab. That means the second jab system works!

What makes you think lockdown isn’t working?

Oh, hasn't some "academic" from Imperial (who is probably shagging Neil Ferguson) said it isn't?

@Magnifythatpie

I agree that it’s a question that needs to be asked. I am definitely not a doom monger but we do need to start planning for a future that includes these kind of scenarios. Otherwise it’s all knee jerk. So say we have to have social distancing measures for the next two winters which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. What are we going to do in that situation?

Personally, I think "some" level of social distancing will be with us for many years, whether an actual strict requirement, or whether simply out of habit/personal choice

Obviously, if infections/deaths start to rise, then we'd need some kind of legal requirements (social distancing, essential workers only, lockdowns, or whatever), maybe through a return of the tier system, just to keep it all under control and stop the exponential spread.

But even if not legally required, there may well be a preference for people (who consider themselves at higher risk) to make their own judgement re social distancing to give themselves confidence, i.e. avoiding crowded places, avoiding large gatherings, avoiding cramped settings such as theatres, sports stadia, etc. That's "their" choice, but it may prompt changes in the venues, i.e. some may voluntarily choose to limit admission numbers in the hope of attracting "worried" customers by making them feel safer.

Not disimilar to Saga's announcement yesterday that they're reducing the number of passengers on their cruises, i.e. to give the passengers more comfort and space on board, i.e. less busy buffet breakfasts, less cramped bars and theatres - that kind of thing will help persuade customers that they're taking covid seriously and taking precautions to help avoid spread of infections.

To all those saying the OP is scaremongering despite the fact she is actually referring to the report issued by Imperial College and the subsequent articles / comments in papers and social media, what do you say about the report (and also, why the hell isn't the OP allowed to talk about it).

Presumably the imperial college report actually takes into account the figures reported daily rather than ignores them all as a lot of you appear to suggest is happening.

I don't understand what is being said in the imperial college report but it is a perfectly valid thing to question since it is all over the news.

Have a look at Victoria, Australia. We had a hard lockdown and now we are living life relatively normally. And that’s without the vaccine. It felt never-ending during the lockdown, but it had given a new perspective on life and enjoying the little things.

Taken from my local government website.
Cases from 3rd January - 20th January for England 4 95. 4 per 100,000 down by 162.7 from the previous 7 days.

Lockdown is working.