If the vaccines do not work and lockdown isn't working

[RosieLemonade]

What happens now?
Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?

Panic mongering won't help your child.

@Anniegetyourgun

Society doesn't break down if you can't go to the pub It's bad news for publicans, for example, but they could be supported to start a different business. Just because we are currently used to living in each other's pockets doesn't mean we have to. A lot of people already have fairly isolated but perfectly sustainable lifestyles.

And people being fed won't happen if we go around infecting farmers, food processors and distributors.

Pubs don't get as much help as you would think tho sadly. Especially the smaller ones that weren't able to open until a much later time than the larger pubs and those with beer gardens.

@lightland - of course some people will get Covid even when vaccinated.

I have the flu jab every year but I can still get flu. That jab only prevents somewhere between 30% and 60% of people actually CATCHING flu. The rest will catch it but not as badly.

If that's the same odds with Covid, that's fine. Because if I catch it, the difference between needing a ventilator or a hospital bed and laying on your sofa feeling terrible but being able to breathe unaided is the difference I'm happy to take for a jab in the arm! I would imagine those in hospital at the moment would give anything to have a vaccination that made the disease less aggressive, even if they did still catch it.

@Anniegetyourgun

Society doesn't break down if you can't go to the pub It's bad news for publicans, for example, but they could be supported to start a different business. Just because we are currently used to living in each other's pockets doesn't mean we have to. A lot of people already have fairly isolated but perfectly sustainable lifestyles.

And people being fed won't happen if we go around infecting farmers, food processors and distributors.

Agree with this, there are other ways of organising human societies, we need the basics of food clothing and shelter and provided these can be achieved in covidsafe ways humans will survive. We can then find covid safe ways to fulfill our as a needs and wants. A significant problem is that governments do not want to to look at other ways of doing things, i.e. ways that will benefit society as a whole, people in power are mostly focused on enriching themselves and elites like themselves. To this end they expend much effort distracting the population from what is really going on, covering their asses etc

@Puzzledandpissedoff

So glad to see a conversation beginning about if the vaccines don't work (and to be clear, we all hope they do so that's not when but if)

Some of us have been suggesting this for months, and while none of the options are especially pleasant at least it's a start ... better, surely, than putting an inordinate amount of faith in just one thing?

Qualified medical experts have fully tested the vaccines in clinical trials and stated they do work.

Meanwhile a small number of scare mongering internet users with no medical qualifications are suggesting they might not work.

I know who I believe.

But in the main only eople in care homes and their carers and NHS staff have been vaccinated. By and large, the very elderly in care homes don't go in the outside world very much, shopping etc. usually done for them. So until the vaccines are given to the rest of the population who are 'out there' then we aren't going to see a major drop in cases. We re early sixties, probably be March (hopefully) when we get ours. People 50s and younger could even be towards Autumn or later before they get vaccinated. Unfortunately these people waiting impatiently are the ones of us by and large that are walking round supermarkets, going to work, on public transport etc etc and spreading it.

If the vaccine doesn’t work, the government will come to the conclusion at some point that normal life must resume. The vast majority will be fine, and the people who will die from Covid will die, and life will carry on.

@Floomobal

If the vaccine doesn’t work, the government will come to the conclusion at some point that normal life must resume. The vast majority will be fine, and the people who will die from Covid will die, and life will carry on.

Here’s to it working, as this is a painful drawn out process to get to that point.

My area has gone down from over 1000 per 100,000 to 500 per 100,000, so the figures dropping, it will still take another couple of weeks to get down below 100 though.

It’s not “just one thing”. There are multiple vaccines that work in different ways

I know, PurpleDaises, but I was referring to vaccines on the whole rather than any particular one
No doubt someone will now call me an anti-vaxer, and actually that's far from the truth; it's just that I appreciate at least some of their limitations rather than regarding them as the be-all and end-all

For example, someone mentioned on the excellent stats thread that apparently antibodies from our original strain may not work against the new South African one and that this may raise questions questions around the vaccines' efficacy against it ... perhaps just another thing to bear in mind

Thank you for the people who have given thoughtful replies. I am not an idiot. I am a scared person who has seen two frightening stories circulating.

Qualified medical experts have fully tested the vaccines in clinical trials and stated they do work

Yes, and as PPs have said regarding the Pfizer product, those tests have been done on the basis of a 3 week vaccination gap and that's not what we're doing

I obviously get why we're not doing it, but again it just raises more questions to go with all the rest

Haven't read the whole thread - but I think, until the government/employers start covering people's wages whilst they self-isolate, this won't end. There are millions of people in this country that live payday to payday - they cannot afford to stay at home, and who can blame them? It's easy to be sanctimonious about 'killing granny' whilst your security is not as risk. They've paid an absolute fortune out for furlough - if instead they'd sorted test & trace out, and covered wages for isolation we'd be in a much better position now. Most WANT to do the right thing but circumstances prevent them from doing so.

Locking down the whole country is not the answer - without an economy our nhs is fucked anyway, and arguably was fucked before covid was even a thing!

And whilst I'm on a rant - if masks/hand washing work how are people who are bedridden catching covid in hospitals? Are the staff not wearing PPE/using sanitiser? On BBC Hospital a few weeks ago an elderly lady was admitted (not covid related) and tested positive on her 12th day in the hospital - how? All that poor lady wanted to do throughout her whole stay was go home, she wasn't allowed any visitors until her last hours when she was barely conscious - it's barbaric I'm not being goady, I just genuinely don't understand how so many are catching it in hospitals. If hospital PPE doesn't prevent the spread what use is my silly little handmade mask?

@Doris86 They havent been tested at all on some groups of people. But that is not to say it doesnt work on them as well as the groups tested[well 95%, or 60% or 30-60%, pick a figure].

No one even knows how reliable the data from Israel is.

Something that is slowly dawning on me. Our NHS is supposed to be the best in the world, but since we are now the worst country in the world this week for covid deaths, what does that say about the NHS? Not good for its image, and perhaps a point best left for another time.

It's not the NHS it's the government. Have the conversation any time you like

It takes weeks and a second jab for immunity to kick in.
Cases are very slowly going down.
We just have to be patient, I guess we'll be in a much better place by June.

Let's hope they've planned for next winters vaccinations already so we don't end up here again. doubt it.

Agree with this, there are other ways of organising human societies, we need the basics of food clothing and shelter and provided these can be achieved in covidsafe ways humans will survive.
We can then find covid safe ways to fulfill our as a needs and wants.

Erm, can you name one of these other societies that has no close contact between people unless they already live together? Because I don't see how either the incest or the lack of babies hasn't yet brought about their downfall...

All human societies, in all times, have valued and had spaces for sociability, it's utterly mad to imagine that we could just jettison that permanently or even long-term.

@lightand

Something that is slowly dawning on me. Our NHS is supposed to be the best in the world, but since we are now the worst country in the world this week for covid deaths, what does that say about the NHS? Not good for its image, and perhaps a point best left for another time.

The nhs is not in charge of pandemic policy. That’s Boris and his band of clowns.

They've paid an absolute fortune out for furlough - if instead they'd sorted test & trace out, and covered wages for isolation we'd be in a much better position now

Possibly, yes, but who's to say that, if folks' wages were covered for isolation, everyone would actually do it?

We could well be back with enforcement on that one, and enforcement's patchy in many areas and seemingly impossible in some

No thanks @herecomesthsun. It is only a partly thought through thought, and I dont fancy a pile in!

"@duffeldaisy You say that the vaccines do work. But even pfizzer itself says 90% or is it 95%. Which means one in 20 people who have the pfizzer vaccine[oxford is 60% or whatever], can still catch the virus."

Even 90% is great for a vaccine.
I'm not a scientist, but from what I understand, it's not a complete cutoff at 90-95%, like that last 5-10% is completely unprotected. I think it's that they still can get it but not quite as badly.

But even if they couldn't - and there are some people who can't be vaccinated for whatever reason - once everyone starts having the vaccine, that's when proper herd immunity kicks in. If we can get 80% of the population vaccinated then that's enough to slow infection to a point where the virus just dies off.

They can't prove that you can't catch it and spread it with the vaccine, but I think that's researchers being very careful. They never tend to make statements without full proof.
If you have a load of antibodies raring to go as soon as the virus lands on you, then the actual time before they destroy it is going to be way, way shorter. And if they're fast enough so that people with it are asymptomatic, then that will also massively reduce spread - if spread is still possible.

The real problem, I think, could come with not enough people having the vaccine to stamp the thing out properly. That's why everyone who can have one, whichever one works for them, should, to protect the small number who can't.

@RosieLemonade

People on here said they are only 33 per cent effective and the papers are reporting infection rates aren't falling. I understand the lag for the death rates.

Also the data I believe is taken as an average over 21 days from first jab - so on day 1, it has little to no protection, but by day 15 it has a much greater effectiveness. The average takes into account the first few days, so the percentage appears lower - it still offers great protection

If hospital PPE doesn't prevent the spread what use is my silly little handmade mask
I presume the reason it's so much easier to catch covid in hospital is because there are numerous heavily infected people concentrated in an indoor space for very extended periods of time?