If the vaccines do not work and lockdown isn't working

[RosieLemonade]

What happens now?
Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?

@Puzzledandpissedoff

ICU is mostly filled with people that have serious underlying health conditions or are obese. Very few that are fit and healthy

Worth remembering the next time someone mentions it also being full of younger people ... sadly, obesity and serious conditions aren't restricted to the very aged

The Intensive Care doctor on BBC news last night said most patients in ITU are young with no underlying conditions at all.

And the ones they have to put on ventilators mostly don't make it.

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/4cd9c693-6657-eb11-912d-00505601089b

That ICNARC report points to male, higher deprivation, bmi over 25 being hardest hit.

Quick scan though

There is definitely young health people coming into ICU. I don't think anyone would say that never happens. However they are a small percentage of the people there.

I think the trouble with doctor interviews is they can only talk about what they personally are witnessing and not the overall picture around the country. Also the shock and desperation they must feel at the moment will sway the interview.

@MarshaBradyo

That ICNARC report points to male, higher deprivation, bmi over 25 being hardest hit.

Quick scan though

So, neither obese, or with a pre-existing condition then.

So, neither obese, or with a pre-existing condition then.

BMI over 25 includes obese

Very severe comorbidi􏰀es *, n (%) [N=3210] Cardiovascular
Respiratory
Renal
Liver
Metasta􏰀c disease Haematological malignancy Immunocompromised

Plus stats for these

@MarshaBradyo

So, neither obese, or with a pre-existing condition then.

BMI over 25 includes obese

No fit man has a BMI under 25, do they?

Or at least none I know. They all have muscles.

@Sunnysideup999

This is how we live now. Lockdowns help bring down cases - but do not work long term. Vaccines are an unknown. We don’t know how effective they are or how long they work for .

PHE has a surveillance system where people should report data about people who return positive PCR results or COVID–19 infections in those who've received 1 or 2 jabs:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-enhanced-surveillance-of-cases-in-vaccinated-individuals/reporting-to-the-enhanced-surveillance-of-covid-19-cases-in-vaccinated-individuals

So, the current uncertainties about some aspects of vaccines should be reducing as the data collection grows.

And currently, there are UK clinical trials about treatments for early or mild Covid. In general, if anybody >65 yrs-old or who is >50 yrs-old with a pre-existing condition develops Covid, it might be good to think about self-enrolling in the Oxford Principle Trial. Principle is expanding its suite of low-cost treatments for Covid that people can do at home to treat early or mild Covid and it's intended to reduce the number of those who need admission to hospital:

www.principletrial.org/

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-23/trial-for-wonder-drug-that-may-reduce-covid-deaths-times-says