My guesses (notice the word guesses, I am not presenting as a fact) are that restrictions will ease from around Easter (end of respiritory illness season) and most of the country will spend around May-September in tiers 1-2. That's a significant easing on where we are now. Life will feel better with longer days and dried out mud for a start! If it was open in 2020, it will probably happen in 2021. We know more about indoor/ outdoor transmission so I'd expect outdoor events to resume far sooner that last year.
I'm not expecting a real normal including mass indoor events- the point that they re-launch, will be a good sign of longer term stability and confidence.
From the point in June that it became clear that my y2 and y4 were not setting foot into school for another 3 months, I shifted my focus to September. August felt recognisably like a summer holiday, not truely normal, still no willing from family and friends to meet so still lonely, but we went on a modified UK holiday and went to various outdoor attractions to break the groundhog day mentality.
Winter was inevitably going to be harder and I didn't put much headspace in to it, and have put my focus into getting through day by day until Easter and seeing my pots of bulbs that I planted as a symbolism of hope in back in October.
I'm not thinking beyond September- hopefully the vaccination programme will cause it to be significantly less restricted than this year. Maybe not normal, but the NHS should be under significantly less stress from Covid... although there is the general backlog to deal with.
I still hate the phrase "new normal" but can accept "temporary normal". There are some useful things we can learn from life since March 2020 such as increased flexibility of working, but we shouldn't lose sight of what normal was and lose our appetite for it for the sake of the economy which funds our public services including the NHS.
I'd say that's fairly realistic and optomistic but other realistic scenarios could look different without bèing downright pessamistic to hopeless. Equally expecting a snap return to full normality is likely to result in disappointment (but if I'm wrong on that, I'd be thrilled
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The most pessamistic scenarios tend to have little foundation on what is known and emerging trends.