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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

996 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 11/01/2021 11:03

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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17
umpteennamechanges · 13/01/2021 10:37

@Firefliess

I think it's a bit tricky to make week to week comparisons currently, as we're still seeing the impact of Christmas/new year mixing, and bank holidays. Monday 4th was the first working day of the year, so may be higher than a normal Monday. But 46k is the lowest daily reported figure for 2 weeks, so has to be a good figure.

Whoever thought that we'd think of 46k as a good figure?!

everythingthelighttouches · 13/01/2021 11:02

Thank you coffeeandcroissant for the heads up on the new variant identified in Manaus, Brazil.

By the way, there is also talk about one in Japan but the experts are still in discussion, it seems it may have arisen from the Brazilian strain, will come back to that later.

It is worrying, but not necessarily surprising, that yet another variant (one with a lot of new, advantageous mutations) has popped up.

I’ve read the paper and a really concerning thing for me is that it shares many of the same mutations as that seen in the U.K.-identified and the S.A.-identified variants.

These have all arisen completely independently, which increasingly suggests something called convergent evolution.

The worry is that the virus is finding ways to be more effective. Even completely independently, it arrives at a similar solution. So those mutations are not at random but due to evolutionary pressure. This means more and more of these will occur.

Saw a nice layman’s explanation now on Twitter of convergent evolution from Bill Hanange

“ Think bats and birds and their wings for an eg of far more distantly related things coming to a similar solution. ”

Personally, this is a bit too bloody quick for my liking. Three in the last month. Like the U.K., Brazil has a great sequencing capability so it’s unsurprising that it has been picked up there.

There will be many other variants we don’t know about across the world.

We are going to need a bigger boat.

HangingOverTheEdge · 13/01/2021 11:54

@littleowl1

The table of cases in councils in England is updated with the latest data on www.covidmessenger.com

My cautious optimism continues - both Kent and Essex (the first counties hit with the new variant) seem to have topped out and are registering week-over-week falls in many of their councils for the third day running.

For those not familiar with the table, click the county column on the table on the homepage (www.covidmessenger.com) to sort by county and scroll through to see the green/red (which indicates falling/rising cases week-over-week respectively).

The sort function is not working at the moment. Using Firefox if I sort by rank it orders thus: 1,10,101,102, etc.
sosotired1 · 13/01/2021 11:55

It is concerning everythingthelighttouches but could it be that we are understanding this more due to the intense genome sequencing... and if we were looking more closely at other viruses we would see the same thing?

borntobequiet · 13/01/2021 12:08

[quote JanuaryChill]blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/12/covid-19-government-must-urgently-rethink-lateral-flow-test-roll-out/[/quote]
This is an important analysis and currently being totally ignored by government and media.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 13/01/2021 12:11

Re the lateral flow stuff, this guy is pushing the tests hard and disputes the BMJ argument mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1349085776324288513

herecomesthsun · 13/01/2021 12:28

@Firefliess and @umpteennamechanges 46k/ day is an excellent figure compared with the most recent estimate from ONS which was in the ballpark of 150k/ day new cases in the UK from survey data about 2 weeks ago and the more recent scientific estimates of maybe about 250k/day.

midgebabe · 13/01/2021 12:29

I read today guardian or bbc that the South African one may actually have been seen in Brazil in April

The new Japanese one seems concerning as it may be affecting symptoms?

JanuaryChill · 13/01/2021 12:48

[quote herecomesthsun]**@Firefliess* and @umpteennamechanges* 46k/ day is an excellent figure compared with the most recent estimate from ONS which was in the ballpark of 150k/ day new cases in the UK from survey data about 2 weeks ago and the more recent scientific estimates of maybe about 250k/day.[/quote]
46K per day is detected cases, 150/250K per day is estimated total cases, completely different thing.

JanuaryChill · 13/01/2021 12:52

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]Re the lateral flow stuff, this guy is pushing the tests hard and disputes the BMJ argument mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1349085776324288513[/quote]
Looking at his bio and posts, not sure he doesn't have an agenda:

HERE IS THE PLAN TO GET US OUT OF THIS #COVID19 WAR

• NO lockdowns
• NO waiting for vaccines
• Reverses cases in weeks

A true public health approach focused on the ppl

To end the public health WAR we are in.

RAPID At-Home COVID Testing for All

Quarantino · 13/01/2021 13:29

[quote JanuaryChill]blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/12/covid-19-government-must-urgently-rethink-lateral-flow-test-roll-out/[/quote]
Not to dispute the general gist, but I'm not able to access the citation [2] but I assume from the figures it's one I saw written up in the New Scientist which was extrapolating from such small numbers it seemed to be worthless (I'm not a statistician). I'll try and find it - you'll need to read through the whole thing to see what they were doing.

www.newscientist.com/article/2263746-test-caught-just-3-per-cent-of-students-with-covid-19-at-uk-university/

Quarantino · 13/01/2021 13:33

Might as well just copy the relevant text

The University of Birmingham was one of several UK educational institutions that offered lateral flow tests to all its students before they returned home for the Christmas break. About 7200 took up the offer during the first week in December, and one-tenth of them, chosen at random, were also given a PCR test to verify the accuracy of the lateral flow tests.

The lateral flow tests indicated that 0.03 per cent of the students had the coronavirus. But in the smaller fraction who had a PCR test, the prevalence was much higher, at 0.86 per cent, according to figures put online this week.

It is unknown why the lateral flow test’s sensitivity was so low, says the university’s Jon Deeks, who was involved in the screening programme. One factor could be that students took their own nasal and throat swabs, and may have done this improperly, although they did do this under supervision, and many other bodies offering screening also use self-swabbing.

It also could be an artefact of the small numbers involved, says Louise Kenny at the University of Liverpool. The PCR positivity level came from 6 positive results among 710 students. “Statistically that’s meaningless,” says Kenny.

MRex · 13/01/2021 13:38

Jon Deeks is blatantly lying with his 3% figure. Michael Mina seems to take all opportunities to exaggerate the effect of "false positive PCRs. Neither can be trusted; as usual, the answer seems to be somewhere in the middle. Lateral flow tests find just the most infectious people, but they are also cheap and quick, so they can help identify the most infectious (potential superspreaders) who we most need isolate. They aren't a perfect tool to identify anyone who may have covid and then go on to infect close contacts or need medical treatment etc. Many people recommend therefore that lateral flow tests have a place, but that place is not replacing PCR tests. Here are some other opinions.

Independent Sage: www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n75
MHRA: www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4950
Royal College of Pathologists: www.rcpath.org/discover-pathology/news/accuracy-of-lateral-flow-antigen-tests-for-covid-19.html
Oxford University and PHE: www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-university-and-phe-confirm-high-sensitivity-of-lateral-flow-tests
This parliament overview is quite balanced: post.parliament.uk/mass-testing-for-covid-19-using-lateral-flow-tests/
FT: www.ft.com/content/07b9e33b-c896-49e4-8c82-0a7853733892.

Quarantino · 13/01/2021 13:46

Thanks MRex, will have a look. I have not formed a position on these tests yet but it makes me absolutely furious that in this time of heightened misinformation and complete reduction in having any free time (due to home schooling and millions of additional responsibilities and restrictions that impinge on my already limited free time) it's basically essential to read through every cited study in these summaries to check it's not totally dodgy. I don't normally do this as a matter of routine unless I'm suspicious about how a figure was reached etc but the last two have shown me that it's absolutely necessary because you can't trust anyone to be honest about the limitations of research they are citing or not to have some sort of agenda. It also erodes trust in science which is part of what's causing all the loony conspiracy theories.

Hence I welcome all views and criticisms on this thread!

Quarantino · 13/01/2021 13:53

oh and I've also had the nhs app 'loading' from last night and still going...

Piggywaspushed · 13/01/2021 13:55

How is he lying *MRex? I have read all his stuff and it seems fairly robust. I think accusing him of 'lying' is a bit extreme! The general conclusion is that they don't work well in the hands of non experts and that they also are not reliable when people are asymptomatic.

The main worry in schools is that they will be used as an alternative to SI as a contact. Don't know of other sectors where that applies.

Quarantino · 13/01/2021 13:59

I assume from the study I cited.

MRex · 13/01/2021 14:01

@Piggywaspushed - taking a tiny number and touting it as being statistically significant could be considered a mistake by someone without statistical skills. Knowingly using that tiny number to discredit larger studies starts to look silly from someone who made that mistake. Jon Deeks is a Professor of Biostatistics. That means he understands what he's doing. That makes it a lie.

herecomesthsun · 13/01/2021 14:01

@JanuaryChill

Yes I do understand that total cases estimated for the UK is different to the lower number of people who went and got positive tests.

I would say that the total number estimated is more relevant if we are trying to make sense of spread, estimate risks and understand what is happening with hospital admissions and deaths.

Piggywaspushed · 13/01/2021 14:03

Hmm, OK mRex.

I am convinced form a range of studies that they are not reliable enough for use in school in the way the government intends, however.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 13/01/2021 14:07

@Quarantino agree that separating out the science from the agendas is incredibly time consuming and frustrating just now and could not be coming at a worse time.

MRex · 13/01/2021 14:20

@Piggywaspushed - a specific use case is a different matter. I'm on the fence on that one too, because I think isolating is better than doing tests if there's a close contact, but doing the tests in schools is incredibly important. So, I'd have the tests done and send home close contacts. The new variant is more infectious though, so what's "close" now may have changed and include the whole class, some of whom have had several isolation periods anyway when they haven't been unwell. For secondary, unless infection rate drop very low again surely it's easier to just try to keep as many home as possible until we get through the adult vaccinations rather than yoyo in and out of school, with the most damaging effect of not being allowed out even for a walk. I'd also like to see trials completed to approve vaccination of the vulnerable over 12s at least by summer? I appreciate most people would struggle to agree that teenagers should be off until summer, and that there are significant downsides for kids so some kind of legal socialising outdoors would have to be allowed, but purely looking at reducing spread that might be best.

Piggywaspushed · 13/01/2021 14:22

surely it's easier to just try to keep as many home as possible until we get through the adult vaccinations rather than yoyo in and out of school,

Yes, absolutely. I am very vocal about the constant yo yoing being more harmful than anything. The gov's response appears to be to try to keep every child in school even if a close contact. Lots of scientists and medics v uncomfortable about that.

wintertravel1980 · 13/01/2021 14:27

Zoe's daily transmission rate is down to 57,695 today from 60,060 yesterday (-4%). London is showing the largest relative drop (-6.2%).

borntobequiet · 13/01/2021 14:28

Jon Deeks is a Professor of Biostatistics. That means he understands what he's doing. That makes it a lie.

That’s a pretty subjective statement for a data thread.