Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Analysis of new SARS-CoV-2 variant in Manaus, Brazil. Shares mutations with new variants in UK and South Africa (although arose independently).

"The recent emergence of variants with multiple shared mutations in spike raises concern about convergent evolution to a new phenotype, potentially associated with an increased propensity for re-infection of individuals."
mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1349070780265619456

These results should be considered with caution as the sample size is limited. Additional genome sequencing from the region is critically needed to investigate the frequency of the new variant over time, estimate its date of emergence, and infer population growth rates.
virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586

PCR test numbers of 11th January (325.2k) are a lot lower than for 10th January (414.7K). Am I being too pessimistic thinking that the fall in the positive number of cases yesterday is the natural consequence of the fall in the number of tests?

If you are in an area where the new variant cases are rising, stay in unless you absolutely have to go out, wear your mask at all times outside, shop outdoors if possible (markets still open?) and wash your hands like your life depends on it. I am in London and the difference between level 4 and lockdown is barely noticeable for me. Keep yourself safe, worry about yourself first, be extra extra vigilant and cautious. It will be ok.

The NW (Preston / Merseyside not necessarily Manchester yet) are in for a seriously hellish few weeks. Our hospitals have only just started to reduce the numbers from the second wave that hit us so badly, the cases have gone through the roof in the last 2 weeks, but they’re not all filtering through into inpatients yet. But they will in time, as the graphs keep showing.

Patients in one hospital nearby , we’re starting wave 3 at the level of inpatients that we had at the peak of the first wave...

Am I being too pessimistic thinking that the fall in the positive number of cases yesterday is the natural consequence of the fall in the number of tests?

The only reason to be pessimistic is if you could come up with plausible reasons why there would be a reduction in people wanting a test. Tests should always be pretty related to symptoms, so you could have extra tests of people who are less likely to be positive if there was an outbreak of another virus.

But not many things which would reduce the number of symptomatic people that wasn't also a reduction in cases.

So I wouldn't be pessimistic, I've not heard of any evidence that people are less likely to get tested at the minute - testing when symptomatic has always been reported as very high compliance - more of the argument that there's too much testing.

Parents will tend to test symptomatic children less now they don't have schools making them do it.....

Thank you sirfredfredgeorge and JanuaryChill. I think I was expecting positive rates to fall rather than tests but your explanations make a lot of sense.

Really interesting report on the likely impact of vaccination on cases, hospital admissions, and deaths over the next few months from the Covid Actuaries Response Group.

henrytapper.com/2021/01/12/how-soon-will-we-see-the-benefits-of-the-vaccination-programme/

It's a surprisingly accessible piece. It concludes:

"Nevertheless, if the programme goes reasonably to plan it can be expected that there will be an 85% to 90% reduction in COVID-19 deaths by the middle of March, although the reporting of this will take a little longer to emerge completely.

However, the stresses on the health service, and particularly ICU units, will not be completely addressed by this first phase – the need to manage this through some degree of continuing non-pharmaceutical interventions will undoubtedly be a challenge as society will increasingly be looking for a return to some degree of normality.

We shall monitor progress in the coming weeks, and will be offering timely insight as the situation unfolds through regular updates on our Twitter account @COVID19Actuary."

I think people who like this thread will enjoy it.

Anyone else found the NHS app on phone just constantly saying "loading" this evening?

@JanuaryChill

Parents will tend to test symptomatic children less now they don't have schools making them do it.....

That is a very good point.

Hearing headlines about rates being 250,000 per day at the moment. Do we believe this or is is scare mongering...?

Can you point to where it's being claimed? That might give some indication about how it's calculated?

I thought I heard 150,000 this morning on radio?

In HoC committee today (reported this evening), someone said the reason for the hospital spike being slightly later and sadly, predicted to last longer, is the new variant, which wan't in the calculations.

Sorry I just heard it on sky news. Just a headline. Will see if I can find an article.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-infections-feared-to-be-up-to-250-000-a-day-and-pressure-on-nhs-may-not-reduce-until-march-12186135

@Quarantino this is it. “Scientists” claim....
I’m hoping it’s just media exaggeration.

I've had loading all eve too

The ONS infection survey, which is based on random sampling last estimated that there were 1.1m people had COVID in England in the week ending 2 January (which is 157,000 per day). This compared to 346k positive tests recorded for that week or 49k (as there are many people who have it that do not get tested - asymptomatic for example).

I guess it could have got to 250,000 per day, but as the daily average for those testing positive has only increased slightly since 2 Jan and now started to drop, that doesn’t seem likely but difficult to know until the next survey released on Friday.

*sorry that should have said 49k per day

Same issue with the app for me this morning. If you go into app settings (via your phone settings, not the app itself) and switch off background activities notifications it goes away. App appears to think it's working normally.

Oh, thank you! We are all having this too!

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/12/covid-19-government-must-urgently-rethink-lateral-flow-test-roll-out/

@TeaInTheGarden

Hearing headlines about rates being 250,000 per day at the moment. Do we believe this or is is scare mongering...?

It's not scaremongering.

It is a possibility but it might be an overestimate.

People are allowed to discuss the situation, the alternative of pretending this isn't happening would be worse.

Hello, I have been lurking on this thread for a few weeks and find it very helpful - I hope it is ok if I ask a question. I read in the FT today that doubts had been raised in Australia about the data underlying the AZ jab on.ft.com/2XyC1wb

I don't really have a feel for how "unusual" the AZ data/checks/processes were - could this just be troublemaking by the opposition (as some of the comments on the article suggest)? Why are we the only country to have approved AZ? If anyone has any insights I'd love to hear them (and apologies if this isn't the right thread to raise this Q) - thanks :)

We’re not the only country to have approved AZ, India has.

@peridito

Thanks sirfred .Perhaps we're nor quite there yet in London .Bromley say they are prioritising front line workers and will open another site later in Jan .

My borough ( Southwark) still links to a info re testing only for those with symptoms .

Some areas are currently in set up mode. On either Indeed or Reed ( I forget which) they're currently recruiting a COVID project manager type role to set up community testing in NW London