Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@borntobequiet

Jon Deeks is a Professor of Biostatistics. That means he understands what he's doing. That makes it a lie.

That’s a pretty subjective statement for a data thread.

I'd be interested to see a data-driven defence of that 3% figure then.

@Piggywaspushed

surely it's easier to just try to keep as many home as possible until we get through the adult vaccinations rather than yoyo in and out of school,

Yes, absolutely. I am very vocal about the constant yo yoing being more harmful than anything. The gov's response appears to be to try to keep every child in school even if a close contact. Lots of scientists and medics v uncomfortable about that.

I agree too. Yoyoing is far harder for the children, who never know when they're going to be sent home, parents who may have to arrange childcare/work at the last minutes and also you can have one child at school who as had 6 weeks of isolating last term, and another who has none. When you have part of the year in, and part out, then one is going to miss out on work as teachers can't do them both.

Over the summer term, the government should have taken the opportunity to put together a timetable of work for each year (probably concentrating on maths/English/science) that children at home could follow. Yes, it wouldn't go in with all schools' curricula but it would mean that those sent home would have had something to do that was helpful.

@borntobequiet - why would you not expect a Professor of Biostatistics to understand inferential statistics and statistical significance? I was at school a very long time ago and it was included in the Further Maths statistics components, so I'd really expect a university professor to have a handle on it.

Deeks and Mina on Twitter are sadly not engaging in a data driven argument and neither is coming off well as far as I can tell. Unfortunate, because it’s a pretty important debate.

[quote MRex]@borntobequiet - why would you not expect a Professor of Biostatistics to understand inferential statistics and statistical significance? I was at school a very long time ago and it was included in the Further Maths statistics components, so I'd really expect a university professor to have a handle on it.[/quote]
I would expect such a person to understand such things. My comment was on your assertion that he is a liar, which is a very grave accusation to make on little evidence. Well done on understanding the Further Maths stats component so thoroughly, though.

The official death number is likely to be very high today. NHS England reported 1,012 deaths in hospitals (including some backlog from 2020).

@borntobequiet - if you agree it is most likely that he understands it, then how would you characterise his use of the figures?

More from Prof Michael Mina, perhaps someone with more science than me could comment:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/time.com/5912705/covid-19-stop-spread-christmas/%3famp=true

@wintertravel1980

Zoe's daily transmission rate is down to 57,695 today from 60,060 yesterday (-4%). London is showing the largest relative drop (-6.2%).

I came on this thread specifically looking for a comment on ZOE’s figures.

I know it isn’t a definitive measure of infections but they do offer a broad glimpse into overall numbers. I was pleased to see them go down fairly dramatically given this is the first week of lockdown. I don’t know where to access their historical numbers but I’m sure it was around 68k cases per day pretty consistently last week

47525 cases

1564 deaths

@JanuaryChill I wish I were able to comment. This was an interesting back and forth on Twitter which helped me to understand some of the key issues - namely, are we clear on what thresholds make someone infectious? mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1349087507997220867
I really hope the smart science people sort this out and make the right call. My feeling from what I do understand is that these tests could be used well or used badly, and that pilot schemes could help.

Cases looking to have turned the corner, testing numbers still good with 584k yesterday.

Deaths by date of death don't look as alarming as the raw numbers ( as prewarned by @wintertravel1980)

Thanks @ATieLikeRichardGere

@cathyandclare

Cases looking to have turned the corner, testing numbers still good with 584k yesterday.

Deaths by date of death don't look as alarming as the raw numbers ( as prewarned by @wintertravel1980)

And yet all the press will still cry "Over 1500 deaths in the last 24 hours!"

(Although of course it's still awful, and we don't yet know how many more recent deaths are yet to be reported.)

To be fair the rolling 7 day average for deaths is 1060 which is pretty horrific.

Some of the dates are still increasing by quite a lot every day - now up to 847 on the 8 Jan.
Cases where I am are still really rising, in the LA and the MSOA.

@SnowmanDrinkingSnowballs

To be fair the rolling 7 day average for deaths is 1060 which is pretty horrific.

• by date reported, not specimen date, which was 792 at the last complete data

The table of daily cases in councils in England is updated on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

Sorry wasn't meaning to diminish the scale of the crisis.

@cathyandclare

Cases looking to have turned the corner, testing numbers still good with 584k yesterday.

Deaths by date of death don't look as alarming as the raw numbers ( as prewarned by @wintertravel1980)

Good reason cases

Deaths will be hard for a while but cases need to come down

@littleowl1

The table of daily cases in councils in England is updated on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

@littleowl1 - the sort facility on Rank isn't working properly for me - I get 1, then 10, then 101, 102, 103, 104 ....... 109, 11, 111, 112 ....

Yes I think all the columns are having trouble ordering properly...

Hospital admissions are falling in London and the South East www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/covid-hospital-admissions-london-south-east-fall-first-time/

That's good news.

@Piggywaspushed

surely it's easier to just try to keep as many home as possible until we get through the adult vaccinations rather than yoyo in and out of school,

Yes, absolutely. I am very vocal about the constant yo yoing being more harmful than anything. The gov's response appears to be to try to keep every child in school even if a close contact. Lots of scientists and medics v uncomfortable about that.

This absolutely terrifies me! That would potentially mean the kids are not going back until the Autumn term - possibly later

This absolutely terrifies me! That would potentially mean the kids are not going back until the Autumn term - possibly later sad

Hang in there Wake It’s unlikely to be so long.